Weather · resolved market
Will there be at least 1800 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc40e57f06c800f6c1647863d7285b270739346e276be716e139fd3663800584e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $168,010
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $149,967
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $168,010 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 139 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x64db…8c8ebacked No | 45c | 13,344$6,043 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,300.51 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.7wins | +0.31per pick | 52cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 4c | 12,616$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.71 | 3,426 | 31.1%1,066 W · 2,360 L | -38.9wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x167b…2a29backed Yes | 62c | 7,722$4,755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,754.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes | 3c | 7,001$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.48 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88a4…d091backed Yes | 3c | 4,790$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.9 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd9…bd75backed No | 59c | 3,203$1,879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,323.99 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x565e…875dbacked Yes | 4c | 2,773$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +7.0wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6967…84bfbacked Yes | 60c | 2,670$1,598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,597.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd837…e931backed Yes | 10c | 2,551$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 1c | 2,530$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 767 | 27%207 W · 560 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed No | 80c | 2,325$1,852 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.17 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ba…408fbacked Yes | 28c | 2,302$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$647.51 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.20per pick | 25cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 2,004$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.95 | 2,839 | 11.2%317 W · 2,522 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e50…3912backed Yes | 3c | 1,902$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8adf…48cdbacked Yes | 4c | 1,863$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.02 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -6.2wins | -0.22per pick | 53cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9f16…7013backed Yes | 1c | 1,814$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 1,770$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e57…831dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,685$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 73c | 1,382$1,012 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.65 | 623 | 23.8%148 W · 475 L | -21.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x932f…2cd8backed Yes | 15c | 1,256$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.74 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x527c…5a2bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,156$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.69 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d4…dcecbacked Yes | 5c | 1,150$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x468f…ad85backed Yes | 9c | 1,136$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0923…88c7backed Yes | 3c | 1,135$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6578…ba32backed No | 20c | 1,131$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$908.19 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e95…b147backed Yes | 3c | 1,123$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ae…8598backed No | 20c | 1,114$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$894.54 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa17b…6fe5backed Yes | 3c | 1,025$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 19c | 970.06$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$789.57 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead6…911fbacked No | 19c | 945$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$769.23 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a9…fee3backed No | 20c | 927$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$744.38 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43f7…35e5backed No | 67c | 920.31$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.59 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 5c | 915.2$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.69 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3de…5339backed No | 12c | 908$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.04 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87fd…66bcbacked No | 20c | 904$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$725.91 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +92.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…15ddbacked No | 12c | 900$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$792 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99ab…edc1backed No | 20c | 880$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$706.64 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb50…257dbacked No | 49c | 866.63$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.3 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +35%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab21…4b87backed No | 11c | 864$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$768.96 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +168.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 11c | 827.33$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.93 | 214 | 29.4%63 W · 151 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6951…cb02backed No | 11c | 803$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$714.67 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa656…fc5ebacked Yes | 5c | 799.02$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.84 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -46%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…7260backed No | 11c | 784$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697.76 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94cf…5cc9backed Yes | 3c | 739.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325a…a634backed No | 43c | 707$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.7 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…f285backed Yes | 57c | 707$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.7 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.24per pick | 47cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 26c | 696.26$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.81 | 2,304 | 27%622 W · 1,682 L | -41.0wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x079a…3ef8backed No | 77c | 695.32$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.93 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc309…bf67backed Yes | 4c | 650$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3211…7050backed Yes | 3c | 639.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa402…7805backed Yes | 5c | 635.12$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9115…0b6ebacked Yes | 5c | 607.73$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeedd…52d4backed Yes | 4c | 604.93$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc315…6411backed No | 12c | 575$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d14…ee01backed Yes | 2c | 536.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -28%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca9…1f64backed Yes | 2c | 515$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc09e…6946backed Yes | 42c | 485.28$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfc…98e0backed Yes | 74c | 480.46$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.17 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x23a8…8004backed Yes | 37c | 459.99$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.98 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ac…990dbacked Yes | 4c | 427.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 77c | 371.34$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.74 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc79f…e3febacked No | 6c | 326.23$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.13 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 22cpaid | +249.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7832…ca08backed No | 7c | 300$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +269.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x563a…f578backed No | 7c | 300$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.21per pick | 13cpaid | +247.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 7c | 294.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 35cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe356…63bcbacked No | 7c | 276.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.63 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +226.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 8c | 266.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 36 | 5.6%2 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a01…0c8dbacked Yes | 4c | 265$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 45c | 244$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.47 | 1,335 | 50.9%680 W · 655 L | -35.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20ae…dd72backed No | 50c | 228.42$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 7c | 212.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.87 | 80 | 10%8 W · 72 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 8c | 209.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.5 | 50 | 12%6 W · 44 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 5cpaid | +62%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40ae…69c6backed Yes | 5c | 209.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dbe…7acdbacked Yes | 44c | 206.26$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc41f…7145backed No | 62c | 201.18$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked No | 7c | 200$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.67 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb339…38a5backed No | 63c | 197$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.74 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -60%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53f9…e920backed Yes | 49c | 188.18$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe71…38d2backed No | 12c | 186$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.68 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +56%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6c…1838backed Yes | 36c | 180.29$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce6…16a3backed No | 7c | 176.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.73 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +156.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked No | 8c | 171.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.33per pick | 7cpaid | +350%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…92c6backed Yes | 7c | 169.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca68…9c6cbacked Yes | 42c | 160.64$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 31c | 159.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.2 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49b1…c280backed Yes | 65c | 150.86$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.61 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52bd…1a8abacked Yes | 64c | 150$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44f1…c8f4backed Yes | 56c | 145.61$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 31c | 142.16$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.69 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a59…c2b6backed Yes | 77c | 136$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.53 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1c…9a74backed Yes | 76c | 131.2$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47f9…ebb8backed Yes | 58c | 118.08$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 30cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43fb…f74dbacked No | 68c | 103.3$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8712…a7a9backed No | 39c | 99.97$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c7…62a2backed Yes | 72c | 99.96$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b5…1417backed No | 24c | 91.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +183.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13dd…b2b7backed Yes | 33c | 90.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e47…a510backed Yes | 63c | 79.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9985…6afabacked Yes | 63c | 79.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d25…ee0abacked Yes | 39c | 78.9$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be at least 1800 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?this page
- Will there be at least 1750 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 1775 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 1850 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 1900 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 1950 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 2100 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.