Weather · resolved market
Will there be at least 1950 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x914d62969f54da4a7836700d955a4efcfe03d1aeab3f0db7440b7c06e44fd8e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,078
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,990
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,078 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 6c | 6,742$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.41 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…24efbacked Yes | 21c | 1,702$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.42 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -60%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff1…85cdbacked No | 79c | 1,416$1,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.36 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x486b…3ea7backed Yes | 21c | 1,322$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.62 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9778…1d7bbacked No | 79c | 1,224$967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.04 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50e8…ac57backed Yes | 16c | 966$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.56 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 39cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…0137backed Yes | 16c | 965$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.4 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab38…77febacked Yes | 16c | 961$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.76 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.2wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd215…b4eebacked Yes | 22c | 927$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.94 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82a7…afb5backed No | 78c | 927$723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.94 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…3258backed Yes | 16c | 880$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.8 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00c2…1be5backed Yes | 16c | 831$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.96 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 3c | 543.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x722f…f17fbacked Yes | 16c | 419$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.04 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed No | 65c | 334.84$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.53 | 93 | 30.1%28 W · 65 L | +6.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x527c…5a2bbacked Yes | 35c | 301.51$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.53 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc4…4a8ebacked No | 79c | 286$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.06 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.33per pick | 52cpaid | +131.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5318…e451backed Yes | 5c | 278.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1de…aadfbacked Yes | 6c | 275.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 63 | 76.2%48 W · 15 L | +7.8wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x23a8…8004backed Yes | 6c | 220$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c22…444cbacked No | 69c | 121.6$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.99 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb021…1c56backed Yes | 20c | 111.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed No | 79c | 101.06$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc336…9f48backed No | 79c | 98$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 47cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0881…356abacked Yes | 25c | 78.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be at least 1950 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?this page
- Will there be at least 1750 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 1775 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 1800 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 1850 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 1900 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 2100 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.