Weather · resolved market
Will there be at least 1850 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c6ac9c7c96fd79079f71d5c1c1a77e9ec2265ff4355dbdaa07e3adeeae6524b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,965
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,503
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,965 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 3c | 6,636$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.38 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed No | 76c | 1,516$1,149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.21 | 93 | 30.1%28 W · 65 L | +6.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23a8…8004backed Yes | 13c | 1,258$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.26 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6b…340bbacked Yes | 14c | 1,168$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc09e…6946backed Yes | 15c | 1,121$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa17b…6fe5backed Yes | 2c | 789.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5318…e451backed Yes | 6c | 725.76$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x167b…2a29backed Yes | 29c | 343.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed No | 73c | 299.99$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9660…8bb6backed Yes | 28c | 294$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.32 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 12c | 209.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ba…408fbacked Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.20per pick | 25cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 9c | 186.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6938…b3ddbacked Yes | 33c | 186.1$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47f9…ebb8backed Yes | 17c | 166.09$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 30cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2910…d94dbacked Yes | 17c | 140.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 15c | 127.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 58c | 118.75$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.23 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 64c | 96.77$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.84 | 214 | 29.4%63 W · 151 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ae…217abacked Yes | 12c | 84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…8c82backed Yes | 22c | 49.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2afe…e8a2backed No | 68c | 49.26$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bf…b759backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.37per pick | 46cpaid | +89.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 78c | 20.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be at least 1850 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?this page
- Will there be at least 1750 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 1775 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 1800 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 1900 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 1950 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 2100 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.