Weather · resolved market
Will there be at least 1900 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98a64da4e8ac18eb584f624c7025426a1daabe88e3b31b2f7c436cc96ab96140
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $74,279
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,777
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $74,279 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x64db…8c8ebacked No | 27c | 9,050$2,443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,606.4 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.7wins | +0.31per pick | 52cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 2c | 6,600$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.34 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 73c | 5,200$3,785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,784.63 | 93 | 30.1%28 W · 65 L | +6.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c22…444cbacked Yes | 73c | 4,600$3,339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,338.87 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 79c | 3,817$3,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$792.05 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4f…3b33backed Yes | 72c | 1,811$1,304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,303.92 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 52cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb021…1c56backed Yes | 66c | 1,602$1,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060.56 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked No | 77c | 1,450$1,114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd07…0058backed Yes | 12c | 1,380$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.6 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…7523backed Yes | 12c | 1,333$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.96 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3df6…0f0fbacked No | 13c | 1,264$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,099.68 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +50%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa17b…6fe5backed Yes | 1c | 1,230$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b7…d913backed Yes | 72c | 1,199$863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$863.28 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed Yes | 68c | 1,104$747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$747.08 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab18…467dbacked No | 61c | 1,022$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.83 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 2c | 813.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5be7…46eebacked No | 59c | 684$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.44 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +65.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc09e…6946backed Yes | 8c | 678.45$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a10…e7d3backed No | 28c | 663$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.36 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…defcbacked No | 59c | 658$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.78 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00c2…1be5backed Yes | 41c | 653$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.73 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2566…7d60backed Yes | 41c | 651$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.91 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce16…b18ebacked No | 28c | 645$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6b…340bbacked Yes | 8c | 643.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…b75ebacked Yes | 41c | 642$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.22 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…293cbacked Yes | 12c | 637$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.44 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 29cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 28c | 626.39$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.62 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ece…35e8backed No | 28c | 626$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.72 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.17per pick | 36cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…f9d4backed No | 59c | 604$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.64 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1220…741abacked No | 28c | 598$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.56 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x965d…7773backed No | 28c | 587$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.64 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2950…ffeabacked Yes | 72c | 572$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.84 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ce…3c8ebacked No | 28c | 565$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +86.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…be04backed No | 51c | 557$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.93 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fd…a3e1backed Yes | 12c | 527$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.24 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c9…af45backed Yes | 73c | 481$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.13 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked No | 28c | 474.82$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.12 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdece…08dbbacked No | 28c | 474$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4653…65c5backed Yes | 72c | 467$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.24 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 24c | 458.17$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.3 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 3c | 454.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 79c | 414.03$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.12 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea7…2550backed No | 51c | 404$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.96 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23a8…8004backed Yes | 12c | 396.26$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.58 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf8…0657backed No | 27c | 354$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.42 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb86e…e0ecbacked No | 27c | 351$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.23 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…3258backed Yes | 49c | 346$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.54 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x987e…990dbacked Yes | 49c | 328$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.72 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfc…98e0backed Yes | 48c | 300.93$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.25 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ba…408fbacked Yes | 14c | 300$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.65 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.20per pick | 25cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a59…c2b6backed Yes | 29c | 298.54$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.99 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7233…f0eabacked Yes | 49c | 287$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.63 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd12a…fb09backed Yes | 12c | 285.25$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1639…e706backed Yes | 73c | 224$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d74…3163backed Yes | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3336…f823backed Yes | 73c | 200$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53d5…9930backed No | 30c | 192$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.69 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07e0…e1e8backed Yes | 78c | 176$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff1…85cdbacked No | 13c | 155$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.85 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 15c | 147.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x5829…e46bbacked Yes | 49c | 138$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.62 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +91.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 22c | 122.32$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 148 | 29.7%44 W · 104 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31f…2e03backed Yes | 16c | 120$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c7…62a2backed Yes | 42c | 118.83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3285…f236backed Yes | 73c | 115.21$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58c…56e3backed Yes | 76c | 109.99$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.96 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…dd5fbacked Yes | 72c | 109$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.48 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2214…2fe9backed Yes | 73c | 102.06$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x329f…f281backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7b…2d1abacked Yes | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49b1…c280backed Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed Yes | 11c | 97.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -7.4wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x50a3…0a78backed Yes | 75c | 96.19$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.06 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x557a…9f70backed No | 51c | 95$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.55 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab2…b321backed No | 24c | 89$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 40cpaid | +199.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6826…d188backed No | 30c | 83.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x799f…83e2backed Yes | 16c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 49c | 73.3$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.75 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -7.6wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…475dbacked Yes | 71c | 70.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 28c | 62.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.09 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 77c | 60.52$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.45 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 29c | 60.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.89 | 80 | 10%8 W · 72 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 66c | 55.78$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.62 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd942…ce19backed No | 29c | 55.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3e…5bc9backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd862…f135backed Yes | 71c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9907…ca66backed No | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe86b…8357backed Yes | 44c | 48.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a0…69aebacked Yes | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6007…9553backed No | 51c | 43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 71c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a34…4a04backed Yes | 68c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21b1…b066backed Yes | 45c | 36.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dbf…10d9backed Yes | 42c | 30.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4a…1b2fbacked Yes | 40c | 29.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be at least 1900 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?this page
- Will there be at least 1750 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 1775 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 1800 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 1850 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 1950 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 2100 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.