Weather · resolved market
Will there be at least 1750 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1743a8d6692dc28defe5beeb3b0a52de213691344f9283ebc15c8800b9ce890e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,777
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,394
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,777 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 6 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed No | 5c | 11,188$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.51 | 93 | 30.1%28 W · 65 L | +6.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43fb…f74dbacked No | 2c | 1,637$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29be…46afbacked No | 2c | 883.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 71c | 449.99$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -72%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 55c | 191.85$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.14 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4541…30d3backed Yes | 64c | 45.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 24cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be at least 1750 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?this page
- Will there be at least 1775 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 1800 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 1850 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 1900 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 1950 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 2100 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.