Weather · resolved market
Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x68c080ac3d3010e6e99966a56428081483339ac96c7e138d9b7266a64365be04
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,898
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,989
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,898 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 2c | 6,316$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.04 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe864…ce58backed Yes | 8c | 2,824$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.24 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e79…af9ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,393$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x465c…6e53backed Yes | 11c | 801$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.11 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x506a…1b43backed Yes | 11c | 785$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.35 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 3c | 603.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked Yes | 7c | 430.93$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.73 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 6c | 416.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 8c | 340$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 3c | 336$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 29c | 177$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.33 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e7…e4b3backed Yes | 12c | 153.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2891…fa1dbacked Yes | 42c | 120$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc79f…e3febacked Yes | 11c | 106.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 22cpaid | +249.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x563a…f578backed Yes | 11c | 106.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.21per pick | 13cpaid | +247.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ac…990dbacked No | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 18c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…3296backed Yes | 34c | 70$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x061f…fc87backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?this page
- Will there be at least 1750 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 1775 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 1800 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 1850 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 1900 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 1950 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 2100 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.