Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia enter Lyman by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd3d814b2af5702c856fe29671e165ab86aa8cc566ba842009f9c0e6fba69680
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $102,526
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $89,997
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $102,526 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4cbb…2587backed No | 19c | 9,166$1,741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,741.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f04…7994backed No | 5c | 7,663$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5c…55dfbacked No | 3c | 4,453$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.71 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 4,051$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e66…45a8backed No | 1c | 2,461$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb216…3e53backed No | 9c | 2,100$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed No | 10c | 2,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 18c | 1,837$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.51 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked No | 12c | 1,834$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.39 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa0…ea19backed No | 25c | 1,692$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb3…da0ebacked No | 7c | 1,571$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.66 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeec9…be9dbacked No | 4c | 1,431$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 2c | 1,320$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 85 | 10.6%9 W · 76 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb7…276abacked No | 4c | 1,122$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b9…ded7backed No | 13c | 1,091$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe50…6eb6backed No | 12c | 1,050$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.45 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +5.3wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 7c | 1,003$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.26 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed No | 2c | 1,000$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 158 | 55.1%87 W · 71 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca08…1267backed No | 10c | 980$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.2 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe762…064bbacked No | 11c | 909.98$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.4 | 116 | 45.7%53 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9797…c193backed No | 7c | 800$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75c5…23ebbacked No | 3c | 794.13$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb02b…e17dbacked No | 10c | 790.82$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked No | 4c | 760.02$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.78 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 3c | 743.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 2c | 729.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 63 | 1.6%1 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e3…58edbacked No | 2c | 720$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x748a…3c56backed No | 10c | 700$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.3 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05be…78d0backed No | 18c | 646.92$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.72 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb069…0e1cbacked No | 17c | 605.81$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4455…99f2backed No | 5c | 600$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 17c | 560.78$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.9 | 172 | 32%55 W · 117 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf12…cbd9backed No | 2c | 545.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…b02ebacked No | 4c | 498.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ff…9552backed No | 3c | 485$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0372…1c94backed No | 3c | 484.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x606e…6b3abacked No | 7c | 430$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.7wins | -0.23per pick | 42cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked No | 3c | 410$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa43a…1475backed No | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b65…013ebacked No | 17c | 400$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd8…7100backed No | 17c | 379.09$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.7 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5f…4ee1backed No | 3c | 368.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2da…74e3backed No | 13c | 365.08$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.98 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked No | 11c | 360$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3652…dc9bbacked No | 3c | 344.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d85…228ebacked No | 16c | 310$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90b7…0b0dbacked No | 12c | 300.06$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.96 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8e…944ebacked No | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 4c | 300$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 143 | 2.1%3 W · 140 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 18c | 300$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb82f…6e2abacked No | 9c | 290$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc109…450bbacked No | 11c | 285.19$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.1 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 15c | 280$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 14c | 253.32$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc451…c637backed No | 5c | 237.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d43…f5a9backed No | 15c | 236.23$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.54 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed No | 18c | 221.73$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed No | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd1…b201backed No | 14c | 210$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 20c | 203.04$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.08 | 263 | 18.3%48 W · 215 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 9c | 202$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 70 | 4.3%3 W · 67 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…0eb0backed Yes | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.08 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 40c | 191.63$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.65 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42fc…4927backed No | 8c | 191.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +27%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed No | 5c | 190$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -85.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7253…9190backed No | 14c | 177$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf130…88ddbacked Yes | 59c | 173.76$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.41 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d1…f7abbacked No | 18c | 168.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c55…25c3backed No | 24c | 150$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Yes | 66c | 142.56$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.88 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7590…d6e0backed No | 18c | 139.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf295…508fbacked No | 24c | 125$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6de…6a2abacked No | 24c | 125$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a1…5645backed No | 16c | 119.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 14c | 116.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e68…b800backed No | 16c | 110$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b22…3a92backed No | 17c | 107.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8631…9a73backed Yes | 60c | 107.2$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.88 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked No | 14c | 105$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3237…5658backed No | 16c | 103.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x198a…3ca3backed No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5e…332ebacked No | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x130b…d0bcbacked No | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed No | 18c | 82.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -52%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed No | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabe3…e2b1backed Yes | 61c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfca…8d8abacked No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1e5…c5dfbacked No | 30c | 46.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcdd…24debacked Yes | 76c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2858…119dbacked Yes | 70c | 33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe51e…e241backed Yes | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc45…e966backed Yes | 60c | 27.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf606…dc44backed Yes | 75c | 24.55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67e4…61eabacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbff…f90bbacked Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fa…6a9ebacked Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x364f…562cbacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -49%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x941b…e827backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.