TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Russia enter Lyman by April 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$102,526
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$89,997

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $102,526 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4cbb…2587backed No19c9,166$1,741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,741.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f04…7994backed No5c7,663$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40930%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d5c…55dfbacked No3c4,453$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.713560%21 W · 14 L+3.1wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+6.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No0c4,051$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.655327%37 W · 495 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-66.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e66…45a8backed No1c2,461$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb216…3e53backed No9c2,100$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf30a…3583backed No10c2,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001030%3 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-34.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked No18c1,837$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.516547.7%31 W · 34 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9238…b73ebacked No12c1,834$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.3935341.9%148 W · 205 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-4.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2fa0…ea19backed No25c1,692$423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4eb3…da0ebacked No7c1,571$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.661250%6 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+19.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xeec9…be9dbacked No4c1,431$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6040%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No2c1,320$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.528510.6%9 W · 76 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick9cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xddb7…276abacked No4c1,122$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x42b9…ded7backed No13c1,091$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1443560%21 W · 14 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid-2.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfe50…6eb6backed No12c1,050$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.455352.8%28 W · 25 L+5.3wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+26.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No7c1,003$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.2630837.7%116 W · 192 L-18.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe6fd…8bc3backed No2c1,000$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1915855.1%87 W · 71 L+13.0wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xca08…1267backed No10c980$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.24330.2%13 W · 30 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe762…064bbacked No11c909.98$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.411645.7%53 W · 63 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-3.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9797…c193backed No7c800$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-46.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75c5…23ebbacked No3c794.13$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb02b…e17dbacked No10c790.82$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked No4c760.02$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.78267.7%2 W · 24 L+0.1wins0.00per pick7cpaid-47.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked No3c743.11$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.76110%0 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No2c729.35$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.55631.6%1 W · 62 L0.0wins0.00per pick2cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8e3…58edbacked No2c720$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.514252.4%22 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x748a…3c56backed No10c700$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.33729.7%11 W · 26 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05be…78d0backed No18c646.92$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.723865.8%25 W · 13 L+3.5wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+17.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb069…0e1cbacked No17c605.81$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4455…99f2backed No5c600$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301428.6%4 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No17c560.78$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.917232%55 W · 117 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf12…cbd9backed No2c545.89$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid-16.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x31c8…b02ebacked No4c498.63$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.41757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29ff…9552backed No3c485$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0372…1c94backed No3c484.22$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x606e…6b3abacked No7c430$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.21618.8%3 W · 13 L-3.7wins-0.23per pick42cpaid-69.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4c2a…65dcbacked No3c410$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.161233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-18.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa43a…1475backed No5c400$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b65…013ebacked No17c400$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$683237.5%12 W · 20 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-39.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5fd8…7100backed No17c379.09$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.76442.2%27 W · 37 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e5f…4ee1backed No3c368.5$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.61366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe2da…74e3backed No13c365.08$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.986640.9%27 W · 39 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7df6…ac3bbacked No11c360$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.26051.7%31 W · 29 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3652…dc9bbacked No3c344.18$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d85…228ebacked No16c310$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.56425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-67.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x90b7…0b0dbacked No12c300.06$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.967638.2%29 W · 47 L-4.9wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-16.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcc8e…944ebacked No15c300$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No4c300$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.61432.1%3 W · 140 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-72.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x714f…66d5backed No18c300$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$546225.8%16 W · 46 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick28cpaid+4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb82f…6e2abacked No9c290$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc109…450bbacked No11c285.19$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.16136.1%22 W · 39 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-18.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No15c280$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427735.1%27 W · 50 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-29.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd04c…c640backed No14c253.32$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.79250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+42.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc451…c637backed No5c237.39$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.921250%6 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d43…f5a9backed No15c236.23$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.543246.9%15 W · 17 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+20%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x62e8…c7f6backed No18c221.73$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3914147.5%67 W · 74 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f08…54d3backed No23c217.39$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501250%6 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbd1…b201backed No14c210$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No20c203.04$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.0826318.3%48 W · 215 L-14.4wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-34.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked No9c202$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.18704.3%3 W · 67 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-22.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb26c…0eb0backed Yes60c200$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.0814355.9%80 W · 63 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xefdd…8370backed No40c191.63$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.656640.9%27 W · 39 L-0.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-12.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42fc…4927backed No8c191.25$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.15366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+27%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf25b…82d0backed No5c190$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.362611.5%3 W · 23 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-85.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7253…9190backed No14c177$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.985147.1%24 W · 27 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf130…88ddbacked Yes59c173.76$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.414153.7%22 W · 19 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6d1…f7abbacked No18c168.01$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c55…25c3backed No24c150$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed Yes66c142.56$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.8824258.7%142 W · 100 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7590…d6e0backed No18c139.14$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf295…508fbacked No24c125$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf6de…6a2abacked No24c125$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29a1…5645backed No16c119.98$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.96142.6%26 W · 35 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked No14c116.27$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.286126.2%16 W · 45 L-4.8wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-12.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4e68…b800backed No16c110$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.91741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b22…3a92backed No17c107.65$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.556944.9%31 W · 38 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8631…9a73backed Yes60c107.2$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.888549.4%42 W · 43 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+13.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ad0…bf3dbacked No14c105$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.71833.3%6 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-43.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3237…5658backed No16c103.09$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.49728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.16per pick45cpaid-45.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x198a…3ca3backed No18c100$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182050%10 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b5e…332ebacked No26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x130b…d0bcbacked No24c100$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked No11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118660.5%52 W · 34 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+12.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1029…9b36backed No18c82.37$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151816.7%3 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-52%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x94bb…c320backed No22c60$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.25754.4%31 W · 26 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xabe3…e2b1backed Yes61c60$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.4742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-33.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfca…8d8abacked No40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+15.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1e5…c5dfbacked No30c46.65$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.991353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+25.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbcdd…24debacked Yes76c45$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2858…119dbacked Yes70c33$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe51e…e241backed Yes71c30$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc45…e966backed Yes60c27.8$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes76c25$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62240.9%9 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid+41.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf606…dc44backed Yes75c24.55$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67e4…61eabacked No50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbff…f90bbacked Yes76c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3fa…6a9ebacked Yes76c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x364f…562cbacked Yes75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-49%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x941b…e827backed Yes60c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.