Middle East · resolved market
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 20, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe1cc1768f50b1663af6c77729ae6352b846ad9a96c040e12d1e6fb349486f217
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $113,361
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $113,361 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 123 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8179…4403backed No | 25c | 4,165$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd677…a495backed No | 17c | 4,004$677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$676.74 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab9…361dbacked No | 6c | 3,167$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -88.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 2c | 3,014$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.75 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 9c | 2,232$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.39 | 68 | 25%17 W · 51 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed No | 1c | 2,170$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 13c | 1,958$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.63 | 296 | 53.7%159 W · 137 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0848…ffbebacked No | 13c | 1,814$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.97 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32d1…b949backed No | 13c | 1,720$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.02 | 104 | 26%27 W · 77 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +101.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 3c | 1,500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.89 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x486b…3ea7backed No | 15c | 1,446$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.56 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x770e…7640backed No | 9c | 1,286$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.9 | 206 | 17%35 W · 171 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…6415backed No | 11c | 1,258$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.67 | 258 | 43.4%112 W · 146 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed No | 1c | 1,228$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 228 | 2.6%6 W · 222 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 5c | 1,205$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.27 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x576b…6257backed No | 1c | 1,200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 16cpaid | -93.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…d730backed No | 16c | 1,198$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.65 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 10c | 1,163$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.15 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked No | 6c | 1,100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.1 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd1…6feebacked No | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9507…7b04backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49f6…a4f9backed No | 9c | 962.15$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.65 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x882b…a746backed No | 14c | 961.46$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.23 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0401…2f0ebacked No | 3c | 957.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec2…532abacked No | 11c | 955.84$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.24 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c95…d680backed No | 17c | 933.04$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.84 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x581c…d9dabacked No | 10c | 926.98$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed No | 10c | 863.87$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.7 | 202 | 39.1%79 W · 123 L | +20.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6734…eb12backed No | 11c | 862.35$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.62 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +324.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed No | 9c | 853.94$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.57 | 71 | 31%22 W · 49 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25a4…2694backed No | 6c | 811.73$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.57 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe54b…aa14backed Yes | 77c | 774.13$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.13 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +3.9wins | +0.17per pick | 62cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 13c | 750$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.1 | 202 | 43.1%87 W · 115 L | +30.9wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 7c | 647.74$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.44 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 4c | 638.45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.23 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 12c | 579.87$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.82 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 70c | 529$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.49 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9274…734bbacked No | 19c | 520.54$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.38 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf058…e173backed No | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 159 | 6.9%11 W · 148 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x208f…d838backed No | 15c | 489.24$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed No | 10c | 450$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.55 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 12c | 449.43$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.99 | 292 | 54.8%160 W · 132 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 17c | 448.75$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.29 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x8e6f…67e3backed No | 11c | 441.57$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.36 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…c866backed No | 11c | 432.41$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.09 | 77 | 22.1%17 W · 60 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f0…d8a0backed No | 16c | 432.13$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.5 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +5.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…21ebbacked No | 16c | 428.93$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 12cpaid | -96.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 15c | 404.11$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.96 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed No | 11c | 400$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 247 | 12.1%30 W · 217 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 8c | 395.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.83 | 366 | 34.4%126 W · 240 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed No | 12c | 384.01$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.77 | 90 | 57.8%52 W · 38 L | +11.2wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b4…4d69backed No | 29c | 350.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5795…cae3backed No | 6c | 343.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab3…07bcbacked No | 12c | 326.83$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.74 | 131 | 6.1%8 W · 123 L | -10.4wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8900…f01dbacked No | 10c | 322.59$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c7…0e95backed No | 10c | 320$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.62 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c33…8ad6backed Yes | 50c | 314.14$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.07 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | +7.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x303b…6380backed No | 10c | 313.84$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 10c | 303.41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.38 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…5f34backed No | 24c | 299.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 156 | 43.6%68 W · 88 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8d…31e4backed No | 17c | 299.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…8360backed No | 19c | 293.34$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 86 | 16.3%14 W · 72 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b0…a5fbbacked No | 9c | 289.95$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 166 | 48.2%80 W · 86 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed No | 6c | 278$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4030…f9c2backed No | 13c | 263.7$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.69 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked No | 6c | 263$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 248 | 39.5%98 W · 150 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 15c | 255.75$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.34 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 11c | 229.9$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d0…a6e5backed Yes | 72c | 207.01$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.01 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x899c…e884backed No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 26c | 199.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.17 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c13…ce0ebacked No | 11c | 198.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 63 | 9.5%6 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 9c | 168.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0f…7847backed No | 18c | 166.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x075b…d197backed No | 13c | 158.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…25f1backed No | 13c | 154.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed No | 18c | 151.38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 138 | 64.5%89 W · 49 L | +41.8wins | +0.30per pick | 34cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 78+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 70c | 150$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 194 | 49.5%96 W · 98 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2fb…78b8backed No | 14c | 142.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff69…16b5backed Yes | 74c | 142.04$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93e2…92b9backed No | 10c | 135.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ced…9478backed No | 10c | 130.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked No | 13c | 128.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 215 | 25.1%54 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d84…2c67backed No | 9c | 123.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 29 | 3.4%1 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 14c | 122.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 344 | 32.3%111 W · 233 L | -31.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5738…d513backed No | 16c | 122.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…3a04backed No | 15c | 120$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 201 | 31.8%64 W · 137 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked Yes | 75c | 118.71$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 112 | 57.1%64 W · 48 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d88…bc8fbacked No | 31c | 115.26$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.18 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed No | 20c | 114.43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | -11.5wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad4…83b8backed No | 13c | 103.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x035f…33ebbacked No | 16c | 100.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 110 | 16.4%18 W · 92 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked No | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 157 | 51%80 W · 77 L | +13.9wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4588…18b0backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95c8…f511backed No | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x738f…ba83backed No | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4712…99d1backed No | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…a2f8backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | +8.3wins | +0.13per pick | 25cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe33a…d8f7backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65b7…ee5dbacked No | 26c | 99.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 20, 2026?this page
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 18, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 19, 2026?No won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 22, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 23, 2026?No won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 24, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 25, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 26, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 28, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 29, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.