Middle East · resolved market
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 25, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x150e06480309e58441778336410a45a50dbe2464dfeeb88f2dafaa7b49df6cea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $145,695
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $132,777
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $145,695 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 126 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2282…1051backed No | 0c | 10,650$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 0c | 8,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23f2…ee31backed No | 6c | 6,014$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 2c | 4,750$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.35 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 7c | 3,492$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.41 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaca4…f852backed No | 7c | 2,918$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 7c | 2,841$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.36 | 68 | 25%17 W · 51 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6712…467bbacked No | 6c | 2,365$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.14 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa56b…d2babacked No | 8c | 2,139$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 2c | 2,123$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x922d…ac68backed No | 8c | 2,106$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.15 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x443e…8055backed No | 1c | 2,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked No | 7c | 2,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 156 | 29.5%46 W · 110 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 2c | 1,892$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.75 | 322 | 43.5%140 W · 182 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe295…55b3backed No | 3c | 1,711$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.05 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87a8…445cbacked No | 11c | 1,363$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 7c | 1,341$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.52 | 129 | 18.6%24 W · 105 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 12cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfd…946bbacked No | 45c | 1,273$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.85 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked No | 4c | 1,222$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.55 | 124 | 5.6%7 W · 117 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ef…095ebacked No | 45c | 1,202$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.9 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7635…9ae0backed Yes | 55c | 1,147$631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.15 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x154e…ed0cbacked Yes | 55c | 1,120$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8a…6a3cbacked No | 15c | 1,105$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.16 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -74%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed No | 9c | 973.67$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.68 | 202 | 39.1%79 W · 123 L | +20.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…63e0backed No | 6c | 969.77$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.43 | 88 | 18.2%16 W · 72 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c13…ce0ebacked No | 7c | 925.87$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 63 | 9.5%6 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f5c…91bfbacked Yes | 74c | 916$678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.16 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88f1…8e46backed Yes | 74c | 871$645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.46 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…6415backed No | 8c | 865.71$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.35 | 258 | 43.4%112 W · 146 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f6f…706abacked No | 10c | 850.89$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.42 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3359…2273backed No | 14c | 846$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.44 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked No | 2c | 796.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 174 | 14.4%25 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c0…c4c9backed No | 14c | 790$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.6 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked No | 5c | 766.67$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.67 | 62 | 9.7%6 W · 56 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf058…e173backed No | 7c | 740.86$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.95 | 159 | 6.9%11 W · 148 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 6c | 726.94$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.11 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed No | 14c | 709.33$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.74 | 247 | 12.1%30 W · 217 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab9…361dbacked No | 4c | 674.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -88.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa935…d988backed No | 7c | 646.34$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.3 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb00b…fbcabacked No | 26c | 627$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.02 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 4c | 624.78$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5bd…f03ebacked No | 4c | 605.79$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 123 | 28.5%35 W · 88 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd07…0058backed No | 26c | 584$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.84 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e72…cc9cbacked No | 3c | 578.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae18…1132backed No | 26c | 576$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.76 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 3c | 545.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc435…2494backed No | 5c | 533.93$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 78 | 21.8%17 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e6f…67e3backed No | 3c | 500$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 5c | 475$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc6…6d9bbacked No | 12c | 460.55$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x030a…a90bbacked No | 12c | 434.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.17 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ced…9478backed No | 3c | 406.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a46…e2f0backed No | 3c | 390.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 5c | 345.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 366 | 34.4%126 W · 240 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbad…c86ebacked No | 7c | 338.24$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 9cpaid | -96.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12db…e5b1backed Yes | 79c | 336.24$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.77 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9fa…c365backed No | 13c | 332.93$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.51 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.6wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…0bd2backed No | 12c | 326.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.84 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0848…ffbebacked No | 9c | 325.09$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.33 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked No | 10c | 305.7$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.43 | 216 | 31.9%69 W · 147 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 78c | 302.77$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.15 | 181 | 35.9%65 W · 116 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 13c | 293.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.47 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d17…c3dabacked No | 14c | 283.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x382a…b590backed No | 14c | 280.48$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.57 | 50 | 10%5 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…25f1backed No | 15c | 269.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x285f…69e0backed Yes | 79c | 263.91$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.56 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f1…5b30backed No | 13c | 237.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4c…f7debacked No | 44c | 229.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe33a…d8f7backed Yes | 77c | 222.42$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.88 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked No | 17c | 214.53$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.78 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c2…fcbebacked Yes | 55c | 208$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.6 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…59b4backed No | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 200 | 35.5%71 W · 129 L | -11.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc812…85bebacked Yes | 77c | 198.99$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.77 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ff…8f40backed No | 17c | 198.83$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.52 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x035f…33ebbacked No | 7c | 195.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 110 | 16.4%18 W · 92 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca5…9343backed No | 9c | 193.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c2…722fbacked No | 15c | 183.77$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 6c | 181.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 6c | 177.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 103 | 21.4%22 W · 81 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d92…5f8ebacked No | 10c | 170.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae01…0c40backed No | 10c | 168.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c85…31d4backed Yes | 64c | 164.93$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.98 | 102 | 26.5%27 W · 75 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked No | 8c | 160$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 248 | 39.5%98 W · 150 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc292…a04bbacked No | 8c | 157.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25e8…e064backed No | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…3a04backed No | 21c | 150$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 201 | 31.8%64 W · 137 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb38…ae5fbacked No | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -5.8wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…c866backed No | 21c | 148.91$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.47 | 77 | 22.1%17 W · 60 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb254…aa58backed Yes | 76c | 147.91$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.57 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 67cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 20c | 144.81$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e4…5e4ebacked No | 14c | 141.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 34 | 5.9%2 W · 32 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda42…dc4fbacked No | 13c | 140.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb442…bed7backed No | 19c | 132.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 79c | 125.9$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.44 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40fa…95dfbacked No | 15c | 118.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60e4…f926backed No | 22c | 115.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c6c…9253backed Yes | 78c | 112.91$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.91 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x118d…0d42backed No | 27c | 112.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa7…6132backed No | 22c | 111.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a11…f8e9backed No | 14c | 103.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 25, 2026?this page
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 18, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 19, 2026?No won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 20, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 22, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 23, 2026?No won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 24, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 26, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 28, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 29, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.