Middle East · resolved market
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 26, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2415c00b7d380602c4a914a7baf3d29f287c9e9fc625db36468e7530b9e111c7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $74,701
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,664
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $74,701 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 0c | 8,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe295…55b3backed No | 1c | 3,520$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.36 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6307…0447backed No | 17c | 2,156$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.52 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 1c | 2,101$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 103 | 21.4%22 W · 81 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x443e…8055backed No | 1c | 2,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 2c | 1,809$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.49 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x030a…a90bbacked No | 7c | 1,801$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.28 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 3c | 1,750$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.01 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98a7…d963backed No | 6c | 1,547$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 15c | 1,406$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.25 | 68 | 25%17 W · 51 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ced…9478backed No | 1c | 1,207$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x035f…33ebbacked No | 4c | 1,050$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.72 | 110 | 16.4%18 W · 92 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 2c | 912.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 322 | 43.5%140 W · 182 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked No | 2c | 907.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked No | 3c | 907.52$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 124 | 5.6%7 W · 117 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 4c | 781.26$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 129 | 18.6%24 W · 105 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 12cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 3c | 765.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 12c | 758.35$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.59 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5795…cae3backed No | 4c | 713.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3524…e34ebacked Yes | 76c | 526.58$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.58 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f44…d2e7backed No | 5c | 381.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 29cpaid | +129.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd677…a495backed No | 3c | 380$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…0bd2backed No | 12c | 347.82$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.74 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x837a…77e1backed No | 10c | 336.88$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.69 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked No | 20c | 326.01$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.61 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…25f1backed No | 16c | 317.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc22a…9b60backed No | 17c | 302.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed No | 13c | 276.8$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.79 | 202 | 39.1%79 W · 123 L | +20.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed No | 20c | 274.03$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.28 | 247 | 12.1%30 W · 217 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf29…bd92backed No | 6c | 260.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked No | 10c | 235.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 215 | 25.1%54 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 76c | 203.72$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.67 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x91ff…8f40backed No | 15c | 199.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed No | 17c | 165.84$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa461…878abacked No | 16c | 156.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x118d…0d42backed No | 26c | 116.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…3a04backed No | 25c | 113.88$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.13 | 201 | 31.8%64 W · 137 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 13c | 111.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x382a…b590backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 50 | 10%5 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6264…9937backed No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 113 | 50.4%57 W · 56 L | +11.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa935…d988backed No | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff69…16b5backed Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 16c | 99.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8674…0d1ebacked No | 14c | 96.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 126 | 38.1%48 W · 78 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 15c | 92.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc314…9d2dbacked No | 19c | 82.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd58c…8954backed No | 14c | 75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…2bc6backed No | 24c | 75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99af…c347backed No | 20c | 50.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2403…3728backed No | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…f18cbacked Yes | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 173 | 59.5%103 W · 70 L | +12.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e31…454dbacked Yes | 79c | 23.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 60 | 66.7%40 W · 20 L | +7.3wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9d29…5483backed Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e3…f54cbacked Yes | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4656…6e0ebacked Yes | 75c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda73…8e23backed Yes | 79c | 13.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.85 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 26, 2026?this page
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 18, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 19, 2026?No won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 20, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 22, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 23, 2026?No won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 24, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 25, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 28, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 29, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.