Middle East · resolved market
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 27, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7cd08d8f223ca795d97d5bd4b936153c49a86e62fc78dd329345ad3ad1961e00
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $232,742
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $206,368
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $232,742 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x98a7…df9ebacked No | 0c | 99,990$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…6bd3backed No | 6c | 9,287$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.83 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd86b…1924backed No | 1c | 5,459$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd61e…c34fbacked No | 1c | 5,220$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 62 | 3.2%2 W · 60 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5c…a5debacked No | 2c | 4,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 6c | 3,743$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.09 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaca4…f852backed No | 12c | 3,672$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.21 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 5c | 2,985$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.2 | 68 | 25%17 W · 51 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed No | 5c | 2,041$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | +13.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd1…6feebacked No | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked No | 5c | 1,798$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.44 | 124 | 5.6%7 W · 117 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ee…eda1backed No | 2c | 1,695$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.26 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbad…c86ebacked No | 1c | 1,121$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 9cpaid | -96.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 4c | 1,107$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.38 | 113 | 20.4%23 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0401…2f0ebacked No | 3c | 999.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab9…361dbacked No | 12c | 988.98$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.44 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -88.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79b7…7f9ebacked No | 1c | 913.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfa3…a5c8backed No | 11c | 879$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.29 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…6415backed No | 4c | 837.46$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.38 | 258 | 43.4%112 W · 146 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ced…9478backed No | 1c | 772.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x586e…c8c3backed No | 15c | 767.1$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5795…cae3backed No | 5c | 752.22$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.46 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x035f…33ebbacked No | 4c | 700$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.11 | 110 | 16.4%18 W · 92 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a2…34a3backed No | 7c | 694.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.43 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed No | 17c | 679.25$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.42 | 202 | 39.1%79 W · 123 L | +20.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe5bd…f03ebacked No | 2c | 640$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 123 | 28.5%35 W · 88 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2451…09fabacked No | 3c | 637.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4df…e4f3backed No | 3c | 615.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 2c | 600$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x899c…e884backed No | 5c | 555.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab73…d8e6backed No | 12c | 497.05$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf12f…6f41backed No | 11c | 456.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc435…2494backed No | 8c | 449.26$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 78 | 21.8%17 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd2…0eacbacked No | 11c | 439.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a71…4f0fbacked No | 10c | 413.06$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.12 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac8f…feddbacked No | 3c | 411.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 210 | 34.3%72 W · 138 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5eb…5f89backed No | 10c | 404.43$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.28 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…5f34backed No | 9c | 400$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 156 | 43.6%68 W · 88 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 4c | 399.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 12c | 399.17$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…14e8backed No | 10c | 350$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cde…37d9backed No | 3c | 340$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…25f1backed No | 15c | 340$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4a…1b2fbacked No | 10c | 309.55$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 120 | 40%48 W · 72 L | -9.6wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9700…1715backed No | 10c | 307.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.17 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.24per pick | 47cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb416…c7a1backed No | 4c | 303.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8900…f01dbacked No | 7c | 297.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf030…27bfbacked No | 7c | 294.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 114 | 18.4%21 W · 93 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x332f…6d11backed No | 13c | 286.27$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 5c | 269.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…745ebacked Yes | 75c | 266.1$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.1 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb8…f154backed No | 12c | 262.54$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf058…e173backed No | 9c | 260.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 159 | 6.9%11 W · 148 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8df9…468cbacked No | 11c | 253.75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 142 | 27.5%39 W · 103 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…2d86backed No | 11c | 248.63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.78 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8323…6bb8backed No | 12c | 244.49$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.89 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…4554backed No | 21c | 243.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d17…c3dabacked No | 9c | 234.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd87d…52f9backed No | 11c | 222.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked No | 15c | 213.3$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.97 | 248 | 39.5%98 W · 150 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed No | 16c | 199.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac76…9359backed No | 20c | 185.53$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.63 | 267 | 56.2%150 W · 117 L | +12.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed No | 20c | 184.6$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.22 | 247 | 12.1%30 W · 217 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed No | 27c | 182.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked No | 16c | 173.95$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.83 | 157 | 51%80 W · 77 L | +13.9wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd7c…cd5ebacked No | 8c | 172.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 9c | 172.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 360 | 35.3%127 W · 233 L | -30.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c5…a0f3backed Yes | 77c | 168.83$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.83 | 79 | 26.6%21 W · 58 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8357…df1abacked No | 9c | 157.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3517…dab5backed No | 7c | 155.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 67 | 25.4%17 W · 50 L | -5.4wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9fa…c365backed No | 10c | 153.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.6wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed No | 8c | 150.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…0bd2backed No | 13c | 150.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa461…878abacked No | 17c | 147.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c13…ce0ebacked No | 10c | 129.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 63 | 9.5%6 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 13c | 129.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 12c | 127.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9d…3425backed No | 22c | 109.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…bee6backed No | 12c | 107.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x756e…fe0fbacked No | 13c | 105.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f26…7338backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8751…292fbacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…2bc6backed No | 25c | 98.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32d1…b949backed No | 27c | 96.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 104 | 26%27 W · 77 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +101.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 17c | 95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 292 | 54.8%160 W · 132 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda0c…519abacked No | 21c | 93.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5e…332ebacked Yes | 77c | 93.24$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.44 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe33a…d8f7backed Yes | 72c | 82.14$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 20c | 62.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc9…7c87backed Yes | 78c | 54.82$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f1…5b30backed No | 23c | 44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda73…8e23backed Yes | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ece…8e2fbacked Yes | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdcf…db9ebacked Yes | 78c | 22.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb79c…f6c6backed Yes | 72c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb75…27a3backed Yes | 78c | 20.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -5.0wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb797…69d0backed Yes | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37cf…a390backed Yes | 80c | 12.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.54 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 27, 2026?this page
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 18, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 19, 2026?No won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 20, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 22, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 23, 2026?No won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 24, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 25, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 26, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 28, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 29, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.