TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x1a71…4f0f

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
78
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: Serie A, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Serie A at 54 out of 100; worst NBA at 41.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jan 25, 2026, EST1833.3%6 W · 12 L-3.5wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-32.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
NBA — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Warriors vs. Timberwolvesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Spread: Thunder (-11.5)backed Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+104.1%+$20.82
Spurs vs. Timberwolvesbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Heat vs. Thunder: O/U 233.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$20
76ers vs. Raptorsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+150%+$30
Nets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 220.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Pelicans vs. Magicbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Spread: Magic (-6.5)backed Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+92.3%+$18.46
Clippers vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Spread: Pistons (-6.5)backed Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$22
Timberwolves vs. Cavaliersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+69.5%+$13.9
Spread: Lakers (-3.5)backed Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Spread: Rockets (-6.5)backed Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Rockets vs. Trail Blazersbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Spread: Knicks (-1.5)backed Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Hawks vs. Nuggetsbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+104.1%+$20.82
Raptors vs. Celtics: O/U 223.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST+96.1%+$19.22
Mavericks vs. Jazzbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST-100%-$20
All 18 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Jan 30, 2026, EST1457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-17.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Oral Roberts Golden Eagles vs. South Dakota Coyotesbacked South Dakota Coyotes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+64%+$9.61
Oregon State Beavers vs. Loyola Marymount Lionsbacked Loyola Marymount Lions · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST-100%-$11
Davidson Wildcats vs. George Mason Patriotsbacked George Mason Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST+33.3%+$4
Xavier Musketeers vs. Seton Hall Piratesbacked Seton Hall Pirates · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST+40.8%+$4.9
Baylor Bears vs. Cincinnati Bearcatsbacked Baylor Bears · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$11
New Mexico Lobos vs. UNLV Runnin' Rebelsbacked New Mexico Lobos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST+53.8%+$8.08
Saint Joseph's Hawks vs. Loyola Chicago Ramblersbacked Saint Joseph's Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST+63.9%+$9.59
Arizona State Sun Devils vs. UCF Knightsbacked UCF Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST+31.6%+$6.32
Ohio Bobcats vs. Kent State Golden Flashesbacked Kent State Golden Flashes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST+38.9%+$5.83
Michigan State Spartans vs. Rutgers Scarlet Knightsbacked Rutgers Scarlet Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs. Pittsburgh Panthersbacked Wake Forest Demon Deacons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Manhattan Jaspers vs. Iona Gaelsbacked Iona Gaels · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST+29.9%+$4.48
Bellarmine Knights vs. Jacksonville Dolphinsbacked Jacksonville Dolphins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$10
UT Martin Skyhawks vs. Southeast Missouri State Redhawksbacked UT Martin Skyhawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$20
All 14 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Jan 12, 2026, EST1163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+24.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
NHL — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Golden Knights vs. Sharks: O/U 6.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Blue Jackets vs. Utah: O/U 6.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+85.2%+$17.04
Golden Knights vs. Sharksbacked Sharks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Penguins vs. Bruinsbacked Penguins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Kings vs. Oilersbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+156.4%+$31.28
Islanders vs. Wildbacked Islanders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+143.9%+$28.78
Ducks vs. Sabresbacked Sabres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+66.7%+$13.33
Lightning vs. Flyersbacked Lightning · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+58.7%+$11.75
Capitals vs. Blackhawksbacked Capitals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+75.4%+$11.32
Senators vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Flames vs. Bruinsbacked Bruins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST+78.6%+$15.71
All 11 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick33cpaid-52.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$306Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$212.6
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$325Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$324.59
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$200.02
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 27, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.12
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 1, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$30
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$450Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$450
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$363Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST+160.7%+$583.06
All 9 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Feb 4, 2026, EST757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Premier League — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+36.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Lol Inactivelast resolved Nov 9, 2025, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Lol — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5)backed KT Rolster · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST-100%-$48.98
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winnerbacked T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+53.8%+$17.16
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs FlyQuest - Game 1 Winnerbacked CTBC Flying Oyster · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT+61.3%+$21.38
All 3 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+110%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Serie A — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-01-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST+81.8%+$16.36
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-01-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+138.1%+$27.62
All 2 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+59.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Oct 29, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Jan 5, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-26.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-01-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST+47.1%+$9.41
All 2 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 8, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$19.67
All 1 picks, newest first.
Asian League Inactivelast resolved Jan 28, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Asian League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Al Najmah Saudi Club vs. Al Riyadh Saudi Club: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Jan 10, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-01-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.