TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Pelicans vs. Magic

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Magicof Pelicans, Magic
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,278,354
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,345,312

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,278,354 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,535 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x060e…2384backed Pelicans31c218,351$67,689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67,688.88037.5%30 W · 50 L-5.0wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-7.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb889…a430backed Magic70c105,000$73,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,5009263%58 W · 34 L+9.8wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+21.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Magic64c97,149$62,358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,790.311,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Pelicans30c83,333$25,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,0001,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xff12…09f9backed Magic49c58,127$28,602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,525.0219388.1%170 W · 23 L+48.6wins+0.25per pick63cpaid+46.2%equal weight75+0.22 edge/pick
0xb7a6…89b2backed Magic69c45,000$31,268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,732.0914244.4%63 W · 79 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Magic50c40,963$20,303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,660.851,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Pelicans34c39,553$13,294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,293.961,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xba41…5f4fbacked Pelicans30c30,000$9,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,099.9831445.2%142 W · 172 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Magic62c26,929$16,729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,200.955,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Magic69c26,490$18,214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,275.544,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Pelicans37c23,963$8,881 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,881.1883039.4%327 W · 503 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd538…cc31backed Pelicans31c22,000$6,820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,82021450%107 W · 107 L-14.6wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-12.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1d56…7486backed Magic70c22,000$15,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,60017861.2%109 W · 69 L+11.4wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+14.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Magic70c20,458$14,326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,131.732,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d16…d24dbacked Magic69c18,207$12,563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,644.088961.8%55 W · 34 L+0.4wins0.00per pick61cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93ab…9723backed Pelicans30c17,235$5,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,170.560351.4%310 W · 293 L+16.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x34b5…b099backed Pelicans31c17,000$5,270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,270425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-63.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7517…0353backed Magic52c16,897$8,732 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,165.1427865.8%183 W · 95 L+25.4wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+10.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Pelicans57c16,110$9,189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,188.963,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfaba…51debacked Magic49c14,858$7,243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,615.1610947.7%52 W · 57 L-0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x239b…964abacked Magic70c14,722$10,306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,416.7310059%59 W · 41 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Pelicans30c14,058$4,210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,210.1987144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Magic69c13,820$9,584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,235.149,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Pelicans28c13,000$3,662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,662.131,04841.1%431 W · 617 L+23.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Magic69c12,454$8,593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,860.742,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Pelicans30c12,000$3,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,599.9735235.8%126 W · 226 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Magic70c11,624$8,147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,476.862,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Pelicans30c11,231$3,369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,369.374748.5%362 W · 385 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3aa4…a930backed Magic69c11,000$7,590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,4104100%4 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+84%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8980…d4f4backed Pelicans31c10,000$3,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,10021951.1%112 W · 107 L+7.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x88d1…18dabacked Magic57c8,988$5,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,877.8510158.4%59 W · 42 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+20.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4331…39e5backed Pelicans30c8,600$2,580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,579.98850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+20.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Pelicans30c8,333$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,499.9865750.1%329 W · 328 L+10.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f03…766dbacked Pelicans31c8,065$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5004946.9%23 W · 26 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0ac…fd51backed Pelicans62c8,022$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0006838.2%26 W · 42 L-6.0wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-15.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd9a3…b1dfbacked Magic63c7,999$5,071 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,927.562166.7%14 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+37.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Magic56c7,889$4,386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,502.778,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9aeb…5a2dbacked Pelicans30c7,792$2,330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,329.833432.4%11 W · 23 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick35cpaid+35.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Pelicans53c7,792$4,112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,112.381,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd120…19fcbacked Magic76c7,680$5,857 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,822.9320249.5%100 W · 102 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-2.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6218…f388backed Pelicans21c7,444$1,549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,548.95250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+19%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7320…28b4backed Pelicans30c7,000$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,099.9912657.1%72 W · 54 L+11.4wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+15.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked Pelicans40c6,662$2,693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,693.1812143%52 W · 69 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26f8…3452backed Magic47c6,095$2,854 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,240.429938.4%38 W · 61 L-8.4wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-26%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb597…16bdbacked Magic70c6,020$4,214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,806366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Pelicans30c5,689$1,705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,704.7736741.4%152 W · 215 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x019d…2b01backed Magic48c5,463$2,619 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,84429037.9%110 W · 180 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-4.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Pelicans47c5,205$2,468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,468.353,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb85…8464backed Magic49c5,104$2,494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,610.4140041.5%166 W · 234 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5798…ab44backed Pelicans29c5,000$1,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,45015740.8%64 W · 93 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94fa…989ebacked Magic70c4,841$3,377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,463.7626751.7%138 W · 129 L-8.6wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4137…586cbacked Magic69c4,741$3,271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,469.5947043.8%206 W · 264 L-22.2wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Magic69c4,629$3,194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,435.024,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c28…7ba5backed Magic70c4,601$3,221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,380.2913148.9%64 W · 67 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35bd…1ecfbacked Pelicans29c4,600$1,334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,333.9414945.6%68 W · 81 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-3.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Magic36c4,574$1,661 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,912.5361939.6%245 W · 374 L-17.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-18.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa31…c537backed Magic70c4,500$3,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3501650%8 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Magic67c4,426$2,952 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,474.863,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Pelicans0c4,419$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.348820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05e3…4b87backed Pelicans46c4,390$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00047856.7%271 W · 207 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Pelicans33c4,369$1,462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,462.0681529.4%240 W · 575 L-37.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x09ad…819ebacked Magic47c4,341$2,046 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,295.2114254.9%78 W · 64 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Pelicans37c4,294$1,589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,588.7359646.1%275 W · 321 L-16.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x38c2…d3a7backed Magic59c4,260$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,760.122458.9%132 W · 92 L+10.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5993…33a2backed Magic64c4,109$2,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,489.4238046.6%177 W · 203 L-1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8b9a…5f69backed Pelicans0c4,006$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.015213.8%20 W · 501 L+0.6wins0.00per pick4cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8566…c626backed Pelicans61c4,000$2,448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,447.931266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+17.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Magic65c3,866$2,528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,338.164517.1%110 W · 535 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-44.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Magic69c3,859$2,663 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,196.2547856.5%270 W · 208 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x625f…9ff6backed Magic27c3,651$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,650.755621.4%12 W · 44 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick16cpaid+44.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a60…3170backed Pelicans30c3,632$1,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,089.7512646%58 W · 68 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x21ca…3748backed Magic47c3,611$1,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,911.3211747%55 W · 62 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ee1…9bc3backed Pelicans35c3,586$1,255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,255.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Pelicans31c3,545$1,091 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,090.6537944.3%168 W · 211 L-10.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f08…ed44backed Pelicans21c3,488$725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$725.3239744.3%176 W · 221 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-19.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfb3…e68cbacked Pelicans30c3,350$1,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00535050.6%177 W · 173 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Magic47c3,213$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,712.625945.6%118 W · 141 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Magic69c3,206$2,214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$992.4934456.7%195 W · 149 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Pelicans30c3,184$955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$955.21,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5165…175bbacked Magic62c3,099$1,915 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,184.410255.9%57 W · 45 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Magic70c3,045$2,132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$913.576850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Pelicans42c3,000$1,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,26082442.2%348 W · 476 L-3.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1e1…f855backed Pelicans30c2,975$886 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$885.6928742.9%123 W · 164 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x66c9…2e68backed Pelicans68c2,941$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0006758.2%39 W · 28 L-4.6wins-0.07per pick65cpaid-11.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x659c…85bbbacked Pelicans74c2,900$2,146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,145.99728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick42cpaid-16.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x323d…a536backed Magic70c2,800$1,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$840966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+37.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf559…f462backed Magic74c2,706$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$705.6411654.3%63 W · 53 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd3a…67cabacked Pelicans36c2,703$971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$971.4950838.2%194 W · 314 L+22.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+1.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc7b9…0024backed Pelicans40c2,664$1,059 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,059.24933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+39.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Magic54c2,541$1,361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,180.111,40940.2%567 W · 842 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff72…512bbacked Pelicans26c2,530$665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$664.9521935.6%78 W · 141 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+1.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x31ac…392cbacked Magic32c2,518$806 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,712.222356.5%13 W · 10 L+3.8wins+0.16per pick40cpaid+33.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Pelicans30c2,500$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75069149.1%339 W · 352 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65de…9846backed Magic80c2,500$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5001050%5 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-27.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Pelicans30c2,500$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$749.991,66752.7%878 W · 789 L+45.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Magic75c2,453$1,847 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$606.181,05549.9%526 W · 529 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d26…1c15backed Magic70c2,372$1,661 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$711.7322459.4%133 W · 91 L-0.6wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x986c…3180backed Pelicans30c2,359$708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$707.8139958.4%233 W · 166 L+19.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8cbb…acb2backed Pelicans30c2,340$702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70289050.4%449 W · 441 L+4.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.