NBA · resolved market
Pelicans vs. Magic: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa0325a8c58fd4919b408616d346cd9fd09ae067690a56a2eec14278c0e696a6f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pelicansof Pelicans, Magic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,261
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,591
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,261 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Pelicans | 52c | 8,508$4,448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,060.29 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56be…57eebacked Magic | 33c | 5,239$1,729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,729 | 211 | 43.1%91 W · 120 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Pelicans | 39c | 567$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.35 | 228 | 36.4%83 W · 145 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0623…4e38backed Pelicans | 39c | 518.49$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.49 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5165…175bbacked Magic | 54c | 422.26$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.05 | 102 | 55.9%57 W · 45 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba3a…b49abacked Magic | 59c | 361.02$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecd3…4285backed Magic | 42c | 331.39$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.18 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Magic | 58c | 298.61$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.97 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Magic | 62c | 212$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.44 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7635…63f6backed Magic | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 214 | 40.7%87 W · 127 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Magic | 61c | 153.2$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.45 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Magic | 33c | 135.33$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.66 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -8.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc2…0751backed Magic | 66c | 114.91$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Magic | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Pelicans | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 635 | 55.6%353 W · 282 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80a9…ad8bbacked Magic | 69c | 94.92$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.47 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0747…7e58backed Magic | 79c | 77.36$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.06 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…086ebacked Magic | 65c | 61.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.65 | 111 | 58.6%65 W · 46 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed1…efcbbacked Magic | 67c | 31.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Magic | 61c | 19.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Magic | 64c | 18.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 591 | 41.8%247 W · 344 L | -26.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pelicans vs. Magic: 1H Moneylinethis page
- Pelicans vs. MagicMagic won
- Pelicans vs. Magic: 1H O/U 120.5Under won
- Pelicans vs. Magic: O/U 233.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Magic: O/U 234.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Magic: O/U 235.5Over won
- Spread: Magic (-6.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-7.5)Magic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.