NBA · resolved market
Spread: Magic (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f537922debdf2e66da8c8a100d3d0be959cc410134919d6a54d96a944548c86
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Magicof Magic, Pelicans
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $119,007
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $123,186
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $119,007 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Magic | 49c | 48,678$23,639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,039.69 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ab…9723backed Pelicans | 52c | 35,000$18,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,200 | 603 | 51.4%310 W · 293 L | +16.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Pelicans | 50c | 32,542$16,421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,420.85 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb889…a430backed Magic | 48c | 18,851$9,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,802.39 | 92 | 63%58 W · 34 L | +9.8wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac0a…f89ebacked Pelicans | 52c | 12,500$6,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,500 | 382 | 51%195 W · 187 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Magic | 49c | 11,645$5,706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,938.96 | 1,024 | 50.8%520 W · 504 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Pelicans | 50c | 11,399$5,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,699.5 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Magic | 50c | 6,136$3,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,098.28 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Magic | 48c | 3,947$1,895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,052.44 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Magic | 48c | 3,826$1,838 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,988.47 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Magic | 50c | 3,733$1,867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,866.56 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Pelicans | 52c | 2,650$1,378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,378.07 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Pelicans | 51c | 2,500$1,275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,274.99 | 691 | 49.1%339 W · 352 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Magic | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020 | 801 | 46.4%372 W · 429 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Pelicans | 51c | 1,325$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.25 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cce…5c2fbacked Pelicans | 52c | 1,194$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.75 | 162 | 54.3%88 W · 74 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcf…146ebacked Pelicans | 52c | 962.19$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9adf…55e8backed Magic | 47c | 839.12$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.74 | 237 | 47.7%113 W · 124 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Pelicans | 52c | 300$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Magic | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 930 | 36.5%339 W · 591 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…22eabacked Pelicans | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Pelicans | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 635 | 55.6%353 W · 282 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabf6…129dbacked Pelicans | 57c | 84.5$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Magic | 47c | 56.4$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.14 | 591 | 41.8%247 W · 344 L | -26.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Magic | 51c | 51.08$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.03 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2091…b4f8backed Pelicans | 53c | 47.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -9.7wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0e…4049backed Magic | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 242 | 53.3%129 W · 113 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0eb…5cc6backed Magic | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Pelicans | 50c | 30.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7f…7aecbacked Magic | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 436 | 47.9%209 W · 227 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaadd…637dbacked Pelicans | 52c | 25.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Pelicans | 51c | 22.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89a4…5f78backed Pelicans | 54c | 21.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 100 | 53%53 W · 47 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31ed…09dabacked Pelicans | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Magic (-7.5)this page
- Pelicans vs. MagicMagic won
- Pelicans vs. Magic: 1H MoneylinePelicans won
- Pelicans vs. Magic: 1H O/U 120.5Under won
- Pelicans vs. Magic: O/U 233.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Magic: O/U 234.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Magic: O/U 235.5Over won
- Spread: Magic (-6.5)Magic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.