NHL · resolved market
Senators vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda9e95a454e68331a64d4b6246e1f90ab90a76a19b20e98bd938183e61f25a13
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,927
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,014
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,927 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 47c | 8,512$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000.35 | 561 | 52%292 W · 269 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Under | 48c | 5,777$2,773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,772.96 | 283 | 53%150 W · 133 L | +16.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Over | 53c | 5,000$2,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,349.99 | 1,891 | 52.4%991 W · 900 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe948…ff23backed Over | 53c | 4,000$2,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,880 | 296 | 51.7%153 W · 143 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 52c | 2,862$1,495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,366.36 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03e8…1697backed Over | 49c | 2,693$1,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,373.68 | 670 | 51%342 W · 328 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 52c | 1,747$912 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$834.63 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 55c | 1,279$698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.36 | 1,406 | 47%661 W · 745 L | +58.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 48c | 1,047$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.94 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1428…017cbacked Under | 51c | 991.33$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.58 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Over | 50c | 892$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.86 | 793 | 50.1%397 W · 396 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Over | 48c | 853.03$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.59 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Under | 49c | 700$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343 | 533 | 37.5%200 W · 333 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 48c | 664.63$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.06 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1307…d640backed Under | 52c | 644.51$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.78 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 52c | 583.99$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.28 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 51c | 450$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.5 | 764 | 50.4%385 W · 379 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 53c | 437$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.39 | 849 | 53.8%457 W · 392 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…4f9cbacked Under | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 160 | 56.3%90 W · 70 L | +11.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Over | 48c | 280$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.91 | 485 | 52.2%253 W · 232 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd80…eb96backed Under | 47c | 252$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.44 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 54c | 250$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 53c | 249.5$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.24 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbf…82abbacked Under | 51c | 215.69$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 106 | 46.2%49 W · 57 L | -7.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…cc27backed Under | 38c | 210.11$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.1 | 152 | 38.8%59 W · 93 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…56c2backed Under | 47c | 197.2$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.68 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe025…102fbacked Under | 51c | 196.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 127 | 56.7%72 W · 55 L | +11.4wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Under | 51c | 156.86$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 51c | 156.76$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.32 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Over | 53c | 125.01$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.35 | 490 | 45.3%222 W · 268 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Under | 52c | 115.88$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e6…b6a5backed Under | 47c | 112.77$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 47c | 111.7$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.76 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3187…896dbacked Over | 48c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…3c72backed Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 310 | 47.4%147 W · 163 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 50c | 93$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.17 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 41c | 91.41$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.06 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 56c | 91$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.96 | 619 | 53.8%333 W · 286 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Under | 48c | 70$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 432 | 50.9%220 W · 212 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f1…807dbacked Over | 54c | 62.22$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 32c | 58.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 740 | 54.5%403 W · 337 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Under | 51c | 57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 125 | 48.8%61 W · 64 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd77d…b01cbacked Over | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 152 | 57.2%87 W · 65 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Under | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 599 | 50.4%302 W · 297 L | +20.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Under | 55c | 48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 210 | 48.1%101 W · 109 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d84…6df0backed Under | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8398…749abacked Under | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a71…4f0fbacked Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 51c | 39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x581b…f083backed Under | 51c | 33.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95d6…ac41backed Over | 50c | 33.02$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.51 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1052…53dabacked Under | 50c | 33.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over | 54c | 27.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa916…4f30backed Over | 45c | 27.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 53cpaid | -43%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 336 | 47.9%161 W · 175 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c9…2bd8backed Over | 55c | 21.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Senators vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5this page
- Senators vs. AvalancheAvalanche won
- Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)Avalanche won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.