NHL · resolved market
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41af7d5f8417648631dd057da83a900ac3e01ffdaee22dd3f757febeb5c06fe7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Avalancheof Avalanche, Senators
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,617
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,464
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,617 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc257…358ebacked Senators | 51c | 38,714$19,744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,744.1 | 485 | 45.4%220 W · 265 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Avalanche | 49c | 15,716$7,719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,997 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Avalanche | 49c | 7,613$3,730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,882.38 | 514 | 52.3%269 W · 245 L | +17.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Avalanche | 49c | 3,752$1,845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,906.51 | 619 | 53.8%333 W · 286 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Avalanche | 49c | 3,031$1,485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,545.92 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Senators | 49c | 2,822$1,387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,386.64 | 619 | 59.1%366 W · 253 L | +17.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Avalanche | 49c | 2,745$1,346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,398.04 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Avalanche | 49c | 1,824$894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$930.06 | 282 | 51.8%146 W · 136 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Avalanche | 49c | 1,454$712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$742.57 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb97…a686backed Avalanche | 53c | 1,238$656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.86 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bde…ca3abacked Senators | 47c | 1,238$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.86 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…a65fbacked Avalanche | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.41 | 603 | 37.5%226 W · 377 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb080…5eddbacked Avalanche | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 162 | 46.9%76 W · 86 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Senators | 50c | 999.99$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.99 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x685d…22d6backed Avalanche | 49c | 800$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408 | 125 | 52%65 W · 60 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87e8…5e6ebacked Avalanche | 52c | 576.92$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.92 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…b9e1backed Avalanche | 49c | 517.63$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.99 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2d…72febacked Avalanche | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Avalanche | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.16 | 530 | 50.6%268 W · 262 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed Avalanche | 52c | 300$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 702 | 49%344 W · 358 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Senators | 50c | 281$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.3 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Avalanche | 52c | 278.79$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.79 | 288 | 42%121 W · 167 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Senators | 49c | 259$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.91 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Avalanche | 49c | 244.9$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.9 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Avalanche | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 624 | 47.3%295 W · 329 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacb2…fb9dbacked Avalanche | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66fe…e123backed Senators | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd1…7511backed Avalanche | 52c | 192.4$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.4 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc938…af43backed Senators | 51c | 182$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.82 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…b291backed Avalanche | 53c | 157.2$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.88 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1828…cca5backed Senators | 47c | 157$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.79 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a6…3d19backed Avalanche | 49c | 136.61$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +84%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1488…0672backed Senators | 51c | 131$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.81 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Senators | 49c | 107.88$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.08 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Avalanche | 49c | 104$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.04 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Avalanche | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 201 | 45.8%92 W · 109 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa14e…f856backed Avalanche | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34da…ac26backed Senators | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe32c…db1bbacked Avalanche | 52c | 86.81$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.38 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x844d…3059backed Avalanche | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.63 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Avalanche | 50c | 75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 490 | 45.3%222 W · 268 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Senators | 49c | 73$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Avalanche | 52c | 67.31$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 432 | 56.5%244 W · 188 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da1…c13bbacked Avalanche | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 366 | 48.9%179 W · 187 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Avalanche | 39c | 59.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.59 | 541 | 32.7%177 W · 364 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a3…790fbacked Avalanche | 51c | 57.24$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9382…4ee3backed Senators | 50c | 52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Avalanche | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 599 | 50.4%302 W · 297 L | +20.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…3ee2backed Avalanche | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 524 | 51%267 W · 257 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Senators | 56c | 49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94b9…fcc7backed Avalanche | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2639…a9b6backed Avalanche | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 174 | 42.5%74 W · 100 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1313…866abacked Avalanche | 49c | 47$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.97 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6098…d746backed Avalanche | 49c | 46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…87e6backed Avalanche | 50c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Avalanche | 49c | 44.38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 329 | 46.8%154 W · 175 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb520…60bcbacked Avalanche | 49c | 42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Senators | 48c | 42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Avalanche | 51c | 40.77$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Senators | 49c | 37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6191…e505backed Avalanche | 49c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Avalanche | 50c | 30.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe105…8a2dbacked Avalanche | 49c | 29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa938…3bc3backed Senators | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88ec…2065backed Avalanche | 49c | 28.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a6…bbd5backed Avalanche | 49c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa305…73c9backed Avalanche | 49c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x60dc…9a3ebacked Avalanche | 49c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Senators | 49c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 254 | 35.4%90 W · 164 L | -22.6wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Senators | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 128 | 26.6%34 W · 94 L | -12.3wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x69d6…b77ebacked Avalanche | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)this page
- Senators vs. AvalancheAvalanche won
- Senators vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.