NHL · resolved market
Lightning vs. Flyers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x878cba25807307cb95f83e1709c0800b70b0d709bf9d7472a2fb0c64c28acabe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lightningof Lightning, Flyers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $642,559
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $643,495
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $642,559 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 238 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd0b4…fed6backed Lightning | 63c | 400,000$252,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148,000 | 159 | 53.5%85 W · 74 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98f7…b3e4backed Flyers | 37c | 324,542$120,081 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120,080.54 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Flyers | 37c | 150,000$55,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55,500 | 224 | 43.8%98 W · 126 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc65c…ea39backed Lightning | 63c | 72,000$45,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,640 | 86 | 57%49 W · 37 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa07…2125backed Lightning | 59c | 30,961$18,244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,716.68 | 1,070 | 49.9%534 W · 536 L | +22.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd09…a188backed Lightning | 59c | 10,000$5,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,100 | 617 | 48.5%299 W · 318 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0254…34b3backed Lightning | 78c | 9,732$7,622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,109.94 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Lightning | 59c | 9,029$5,288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,741.44 | 1,891 | 52.4%991 W · 900 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Flyers | 43c | 8,140$3,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,500 | 332 | 43.7%145 W · 187 L | -16.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Flyers | 37c | 8,070$2,986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,985.9 | 514 | 52.3%269 W · 245 L | +17.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1496…a429backed Flyers | 38c | 7,650$2,907 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,907 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29ae…4d2cbacked Flyers | 8c | 6,981$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.34 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +7.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Flyers | 16c | 6,627$1,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,029.87 | 333 | 45.6%152 W · 181 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Flyers | 41c | 6,500$2,665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,664.85 | 1,087 | 45.1%490 W · 597 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49d1…2a44backed Flyers | 42c | 6,400$2,664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,664 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Flyers | 43c | 6,202$2,640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,639.68 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Flyers | 37c | 5,500$2,035 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,035 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…09eebacked Lightning | 63c | 5,405$3,405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,999.85 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Lightning | 57c | 5,274$3,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,254.16 | 566 | 49.5%280 W · 286 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Flyers | 42c | 5,258$2,195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,195.23 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9534…1fe8backed Lightning | 63c | 4,633$2,919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,714.09 | 228 | 52.6%120 W · 108 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…c893backed Lightning | 57c | 4,300$2,451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,849 | 836 | 52.8%441 W · 395 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Flyers | 38c | 4,000$1,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,520 | 684 | 49.9%341 W · 343 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe948…ff23backed Flyers | 42c | 4,000$1,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,679.99 | 296 | 51.7%153 W · 143 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08a4…5c3fbacked Flyers | 39c | 3,618$1,414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,413.88 | 305 | 51.5%157 W · 148 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4fc…8af7backed Flyers | 40c | 3,491$1,383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,383.39 | 602 | 49.5%298 W · 304 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Lightning | 60c | 3,352$2,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,340.62 | 561 | 52%292 W · 269 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Lightning | 62c | 3,180$1,970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,209.86 | 619 | 53.8%333 W · 286 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Lightning | 57c | 2,316$1,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$995.79 | 1,406 | 47%661 W · 745 L | +58.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Flyers | 42c | 2,222$922 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$922.13 | 892 | 49.9%445 W · 447 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Flyers | 21c | 2,121$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.56 | 1,345 | 54.8%737 W · 608 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…cb21backed Lightning | 63c | 2,046$1,289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$756.93 | 217 | 55.3%120 W · 97 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Flyers | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,025 | 40.8%418 W · 607 L | +15.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…a65fbacked Flyers | 42c | 2,000$830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$830 | 603 | 37.5%226 W · 377 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…f205backed Flyers | 1c | 2,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 242 | 0.8%2 W · 240 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Flyers | 3c | 1,861$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.77 | 484 | 52.3%253 W · 231 L | +14.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cb…d096backed Flyers | 16c | 1,742$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.56 | 387 | 38%147 W · 240 L | -13.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed Flyers | 38c | 1,500$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 1,475 | 48.3%712 W · 763 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5adf…a5e7backed Flyers | 41c | 1,500$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615 | 632 | 49.5%313 W · 319 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…ec92backed Lightning | 60c | 1,500$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 543 | 49.5%269 W · 274 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbce9…03e9backed Flyers | 1c | 1,433$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 250 | 4.8%12 W · 238 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +159.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd8…aeabbacked Flyers | 39c | 1,380$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.99 | 269 | 55.8%150 W · 119 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Flyers | 41c | 1,215$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.44 | 976 | 51.6%504 W · 472 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c8…d8a4backed Flyers | 42c | 1,190$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Lightning | 61c | 1,135$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.57 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Flyers | 1c | 1,111$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 745 | 0.7%5 W · 740 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -94.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Flyers | 27c | 1,083$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.37 | 896 | 36.9%331 W · 565 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…be90backed Flyers | 42c | 1,052$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +5.2wins | +0.24per pick | 49cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Lightning | 62c | 1,047$649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.79 | 849 | 53.8%457 W · 392 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d4…a077backed Flyers | 41c | 1,026$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.66 | 250 | 45.2%113 W · 137 L | +13.2wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Flyers | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,163 | 2.3%27 W · 1,136 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -87.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a89…2f26backed Lightning | 59c | 1,000$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410 | 705 | 47.7%336 W · 369 L | -26.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c2…4de7backed Lightning | 63c | 1,000$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370 | 380 | 46.6%177 W · 203 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f9…86ecbacked Lightning | 62c | 999.99$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaabb…5554backed Flyers | 41c | 999.98$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.99 | 457 | 49.2%225 W · 232 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Flyers | 38c | 844.74$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321 | 236 | 42.8%101 W · 135 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…dfffbacked Flyers | 16c | 810$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.36 | 299 | 26.4%79 W · 220 L | -20.5wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87e1…d5bcbacked Lightning | 63c | 800$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ba…2481backed Flyers | 39c | 799.99$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311 | 135 | 54.1%73 W · 62 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x765c…0779backed Flyers | 40c | 763.99$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.6 | 400 | 49.3%197 W · 203 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x783c…6900backed Flyers | 38c | 700$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…9c38backed Lightning | 62c | 687.8$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.36 | 669 | 51%341 W · 328 L | -14.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Flyers | 43c | 680.67$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.69 | 571 | 57.8%330 W · 241 L | +12.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda75…bbf9backed Lightning | 63c | 634.92$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.92 | 206 | 55.3%114 W · 92 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e20…b6b5backed Lightning | 59c | 627.12$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.12 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -26%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x69d9…9881backed Lightning | 59c | 620.34$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.34 | 306 | 57.8%177 W · 129 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2a…0525backed Flyers | 39c | 538.46$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…ddaabacked Flyers | 38c | 526.32$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 206 | 43.2%89 W · 117 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Flyers | 27c | 524$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.36 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3349…c0b8backed Flyers | 39c | 515$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.85 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Lightning | 65c | 500$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.85 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Flyers | 6c | 470.83$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 544 | 18%98 W · 446 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Lightning | 61c | 455.45$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.98 | 457 | 51.6%236 W · 221 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c25…c3bebacked Flyers | 37c | 431.53$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.67 | 249 | 45.4%113 W · 136 L | -16.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3a…64b7backed Lightning | 63c | 428.57$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.57 | 120 | 41.7%50 W · 70 L | -10.9wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x46da…724ebacked Lightning | 59c | 426.47$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.85 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3f…c4c9backed Flyers | 25c | 403.65$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Flyers | 39c | 400$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 390 | 47.9%187 W · 203 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f69…23cbbacked Flyers | 38c | 400$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Flyers | 41c | 375.84$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.09 | 143 | 47.6%68 W · 75 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Flyers | 41c | 368$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.88 | 470 | 51.5%242 W · 228 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9569…27fdbacked Lightning | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.98 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Flyers | 43c | 324$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.32 | 162 | 35.2%57 W · 105 L | -9.3wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Lightning | 63c | 317.46$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.46 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x377d…996cbacked Flyers | 42c | 293.95$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.46 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe530…a2cabacked Flyers | 42c | 285.71$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 691 | 42.8%296 W · 395 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Flyers | 38c | 265$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.7 | 624 | 47.3%295 W · 329 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x260c…7130backed Flyers | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 167 | 53.3%89 W · 78 L | +13.1wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +19%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…d32cbacked Flyers | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +5.1wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +71.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9e24…8e66backed Flyers | 42c | 252.45$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.03 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 49cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Flyers | 43c | 250$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.5 | 480 | 46.9%225 W · 255 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed Lightning | 63c | 248$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.24 | 702 | 49%344 W · 358 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bec…2a78backed Flyers | 42c | 241.4$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.39 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4961…da51backed Flyers | 42c | 241.14$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.28 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d04…0ed7backed Flyers | 42c | 238.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.34 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf25…a899backed Flyers | 42c | 238.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Flyers | 26c | 234.71$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.66 | 254 | 35.4%90 W · 164 L | -22.6wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f4…0566backed Lightning | 78c | 231.76$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.67 | 950 | 49.1%466 W · 484 L | +12.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Lightning | 63c | 217$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.29 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a48…a317backed Flyers | 42c | 214.29$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lightning vs. Flyersthis page
- Lightning vs. Flyers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Lightning vs. Flyers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)Lightning won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.