NHL · resolved market
Lightning vs. Flyers: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x836758a69838a95ed497b8feca4d4fc0cf6fb1100c439e3b99988781d8d97c80
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,706
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,695
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,706 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa07…2125backed Over | 56c | 35,657$19,903 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,754.64 | 1,070 | 49.9%534 W · 536 L | +22.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Under | 45c | 21,916$9,851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,850.95 | 388 | 44.6%173 W · 215 L | -17.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 43c | 9,346$4,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,019.17 | 561 | 52%292 W · 269 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 45c | 5,818$2,608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,608.17 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 55c | 2,654$1,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,203.72 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…3081backed Under | 44c | 2,400$1,056 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,056 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 43c | 1,624$698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698.48 | 510 | 45.5%232 W · 278 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 56c | 1,027$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.88 | 849 | 53.8%457 W · 392 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd589…27c2backed Over | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 428 | 47.2%202 W · 226 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 55c | 673.09$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.53 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Over | 57c | 600$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258 | 318 | 48.1%153 W · 165 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Over | 57c | 510.95$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.71 | 308 | 55.5%171 W · 137 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 45c | 457.89$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.11 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5611…e5f4backed Over | 57c | 438.6$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.6 | 95 | 47.4%45 W · 50 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d9…0092backed Under | 46c | 430.9$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.04 | 164 | 63.4%104 W · 60 L | +18.5wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 44c | 350$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 764 | 50.4%385 W · 379 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Under | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 599 | 50.4%302 W · 297 L | +20.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3759…6b3bbacked Under | 45c | 190.42$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.69 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2567…2371backed Over | 57c | 168.42$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.42 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 55c | 158$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.1 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 44c | 136.52$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.07 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 48c | 72$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…76e9backed Over | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74b2…f6c3backed Over | 56c | 42.52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 44c | 30.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 43c | 29.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 57c | 26.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Under | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 129 | 43.4%56 W · 73 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -14%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 43c | 23.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 451 | 51.2%231 W · 220 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf90e…0b56backed Over | 54c | 21.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 134 | 49.3%66 W · 68 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3945…7077backed Over | 57c | 20.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lightning vs. Flyers: O/U 5.5this page
- Lightning vs. FlyersLightning won
- Lightning vs. Flyers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)Lightning won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.