TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Rockets (-6.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Trail Blazersof Rockets, Trail Blazers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$324,337
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$325,757

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $324,337 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 134 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8f03…64d6backed Trail Blazers48c185,655$88,952 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96,703.681,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4924…3782backed Rockets52c123,046$63,984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63,983.8887451.5%450 W · 424 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Rockets52c65,592$34,108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,107.741,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Trail Blazers48c41,470$19,906 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,564.3559347%279 W · 314 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf512…40e3backed Rockets53c16,273$8,625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,624.81333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-34.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Rockets51c12,018$6,083 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,083.449,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Rockets51c11,576$5,958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,958.423,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf51…4a30backed Trail Blazers52c9,573$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,572.5476746.4%356 W · 411 L-16.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc63…f1c7backed Rockets51c9,130$4,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,650.3650653.2%269 W · 237 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Rockets52c8,274$4,302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,302.4847751.8%247 W · 230 L+1.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb85…8464backed Trail Blazers50c7,032$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,532.0740041.5%166 W · 234 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Trail Blazers48c6,329$3,045 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,283.82,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Rockets52c6,000$3,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,1201,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Rockets52c5,884$3,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,059.5174748.5%362 W · 385 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Rockets51c5,269$2,678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,678.42,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7634…1b96backed Trail Blazers50c4,347$2,157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,189.524051.3%123 W · 117 L-0.7wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4667…cab0backed Rockets51c4,000$2,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,039.9913355.6%74 W · 59 L+8.7wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+15.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Trail Blazers48c3,653$1,756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,897.232,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Trail Blazers49c3,020$1,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,540.21,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x30a4…8441backed Trail Blazers49c3,000$1,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,539.9932051.9%166 W · 154 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+11%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Trail Blazers48c2,536$1,216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,319.762,79650.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L+27.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Rockets47c2,437$1,151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,151.165,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf800…f62dbacked Trail Blazers49c2,041$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,040.828347%39 W · 44 L-6.8wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-13.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Rockets53c2,014$1,068 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,067.61,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2e4…bf9dbacked Rockets52c1,880$978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$977.544761.7%29 W · 18 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+13.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8cbb…acb2backed Trail Blazers48c1,720$826 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$894.3289050.4%449 W · 441 L+4.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Trail Blazers48c1,661$797 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$863.731,66752.7%878 W · 789 L+45.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Rockets52c1,316$684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$684.322,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Trail Blazers49c1,282$628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$653.741,15747.9%554 W · 603 L-19.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa61f…7993backed Trail Blazers49c1,100$539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56161747.8%295 W · 322 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Rockets51c1,044$534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$534.416,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Rockets69c1,009$692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$691.663,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Trail Blazers51c1,000$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49073649.9%367 W · 369 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2bd5…26ccbacked Trail Blazers49c1,000$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51051651%263 W · 253 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41b7…f6babacked Trail Blazers49c1,000$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51080146.4%372 W · 429 L-1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Trail Blazers48c1,000$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5204,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5a9…45ffbacked Trail Blazers49c973.84$477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$496.6623850%119 W · 119 L+1.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Rockets47c937$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.394,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b46…121dbacked Trail Blazers49c816.33$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.3331551.7%163 W · 152 L-1.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0e2…8e9ebacked Trail Blazers49c816.33$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.339659.4%57 W · 39 L+8.6wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+19.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6fb6…fa2cbacked Trail Blazers49c816.33$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.3321852.8%115 W · 103 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2bcc…4324backed Trail Blazers48c800$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41552844.7%236 W · 292 L+1.8wins0.00per pick44cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Rockets52c723$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.962,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17e7…85a1backed Trail Blazers48c670$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.419556.9%111 W · 84 L+20.0wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+19.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x07bc…393abacked Rockets52c655.91$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.079557.9%55 W · 40 L+7.7wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+21.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Rockets46c637.58$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.924,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8717…32c2backed Rockets50c495.92$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.4241553.3%221 W · 194 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Rockets46c418$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.282,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x10d4…69ebbacked Trail Blazers74c410.02$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.8562948.6%306 W · 323 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44a0…c3b9backed Rockets51c400$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20427547.6%131 W · 144 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-11.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf79a…56c2backed Trail Blazers49c340.1$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.4523250.4%117 W · 115 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d4b…a250backed Trail Blazers49c300$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15334447.4%163 W · 181 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x889c…e375backed Trail Blazers51c295.24$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.2450954.8%279 W · 230 L+14.8wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa35b…0eccbacked Rockets51c294.12$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15024556.3%138 W · 107 L+10.5wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x72b2…ffcabacked Rockets52c289$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.283050%15 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbec4…637fbacked Trail Blazers43c276.92$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.5353149.3%262 W · 269 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x240d…a928backed Trail Blazers50c264.39$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.5516440.9%67 W · 97 L-13.9wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-15.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Rockets51c262.03$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.6329748.1%143 W · 154 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe82b…91d3backed Trail Blazers38c262$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.448151.9%42 W · 39 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Rockets47c250$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.52,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c9b…a556backed Rockets52c250$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13022953.7%123 W · 106 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce3e…2f24backed Trail Blazers62c237.95$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.725056.8%142 W · 108 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaae7…0319backed Rockets41c233$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.892642.3%11 W · 15 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-13.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb870…5a8abacked Rockets46c230.62$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.3291846.2%424 W · 494 L+1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Trail Blazers54c230.31$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.851,05549.9%526 W · 529 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x64db…325bbacked Trail Blazers49c204.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.081,25948.7%613 W · 646 L+1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa7c9…0f2bbacked Trail Blazers49c204.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.0813543.7%59 W · 76 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x954b…eb22backed Rockets52c200$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10411044.5%49 W · 61 L-0.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40b…175fbacked Rockets51c196.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003339.4%13 W · 20 L-3.6wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-22.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Rockets48c131.6$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.338,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Trail Blazers51c130.38$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.281,78653.2%950 W · 836 L+52.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa5f…3de3backed Rockets53c130$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.97247.2%34 W · 38 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Trail Blazers54c129$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.341,11341.6%463 W · 650 L-10.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-17.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Rockets48c120.84$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.862,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa072…9e34backed Trail Blazers52c106.99$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.498450%42 W · 42 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x45d2…22fbbacked Trail Blazers49c102.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.0411348.7%55 W · 58 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-8.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb0cb…85babacked Trail Blazers49c102.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.0452242.7%223 W · 299 L-1.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x390c…e88ebacked Trail Blazers64c101.34$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.482365.2%15 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+8.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0742…39a7backed Trail Blazers49c100$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$514148.8%20 W · 21 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+23.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc331…b68bbacked Trail Blazers49c100$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+38.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd420…df90backed Rockets50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5051451.9%267 W · 247 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe70c…c938backed Rockets52c100$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5274547.2%352 W · 393 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Rockets47c100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3da1…c13bbacked Rockets50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5042146.1%194 W · 227 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15e3…009fbacked Trail Blazers48c100$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5237357.4%214 W · 159 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x265b…74dfbacked Trail Blazers48c93.75$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.755345.3%24 W · 29 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d20…f812backed Trail Blazers49c81.63$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.6360346.4%280 W · 323 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Trail Blazers50c80.79$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.3917233.7%58 W · 114 L-9.7wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-9.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd62d…02ccbacked Trail Blazers61c79.99$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.29957.6%57 W · 42 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06d5…0417backed Trail Blazers51c78.43$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.4334050.3%171 W · 169 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Trail Blazers54c76$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.962,20846.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x602d…3534backed Trail Blazers49c71.43$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.4337755.7%210 W · 167 L+11.1wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c04…2e2dbacked Trail Blazers49c69.39$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.3950648%243 W · 263 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc7c…666cbacked Trail Blazers40c69.21$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.588045%36 W · 44 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x44f0…432cbacked Trail Blazers49c62$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.6240146.9%188 W · 213 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a31…152cbacked Trail Blazers51c61.65$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.2148451.2%248 W · 236 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb390…642bbacked Trail Blazers50c60$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301,66150.3%836 W · 825 L-14.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0c7…5861backed Trail Blazers51c58.82$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.8251651.2%264 W · 252 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Trail Blazers53c58.33$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.5363745.8%292 W · 345 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x820f…0ddcbacked Trail Blazers61c58$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.624656.5%26 W · 20 L+0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid+8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.