NBA · resolved market
Spread: Rockets (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4d66c7ea5fd9d55ca69585c6f47a0b8ca5f09b2a04467504100fa8488449c69
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Trail Blazersof Rockets, Trail Blazers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $316,599
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $318,186
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $316,599 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4924…3782backed Rockets | 49c | 292,241$141,790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141,790.33 | 874 | 51.5%450 W · 424 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Trail Blazers | 51c | 244,793$125,844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118,948.49 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Trail Blazers | 52c | 30,000$15,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,400 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Trail Blazers | 52c | 12,830$6,626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,204.16 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Rockets | 47c | 8,617$4,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,028.95 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7a…15a4backed Trail Blazers | 53c | 3,774$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,773.58 | 310 | 44.8%139 W · 171 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Rockets | 48c | 3,237$1,553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,552.79 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Trail Blazers | 57c | 2,276$1,294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$981.74 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd56d…bd7dbacked Trail Blazers | 53c | 1,887$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$886.79 | 86 | 47.7%41 W · 45 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd942…f9d3backed Trail Blazers | 53c | 1,886$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$886.35 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd51b…9606backed Trail Blazers | 54c | 1,859$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$859.17 | 105 | 41%43 W · 62 L | -11.1wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Trail Blazers | 52c | 1,698$880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$818.31 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa61f…7993backed Trail Blazers | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 617 | 47.8%295 W · 322 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd5…26ccbacked Trail Blazers | 59c | 1,000$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410 | 516 | 51%263 W · 253 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07bc…393abacked Trail Blazers | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 95 | 57.9%55 W · 40 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a5…c602backed Trail Blazers | 49c | 988$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.88 | 236 | 30.1%71 W · 165 L | -12.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17e7…85a1backed Trail Blazers | 54c | 650$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299 | 195 | 56.9%111 W · 84 L | +20.0wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb871…9f15backed Trail Blazers | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Rockets | 52c | 400$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce26…8e06backed Trail Blazers | 52c | 250$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 910 | 50.9%463 W · 447 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4010…77d4backed Rockets | 47c | 209.99$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.69 | 481 | 46.2%222 W · 259 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c3…7d73backed Rockets | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | -7.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8eca…6882backed Rockets | 49c | 202.04$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 159 | 36.5%58 W · 101 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabf6…129dbacked Trail Blazers | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed Rockets | 47c | 147.6$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 192 | 42.7%82 W · 110 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4b…14e2backed Trail Blazers | 54c | 111.11$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.11 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97c3…b479backed Rockets | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 147 | 27.2%40 W · 107 L | -21.7wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x38db…d245backed Trail Blazers | 53c | 94.73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.73 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e5…5a2cbacked Trail Blazers | 51c | 69.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 246 | 53.3%131 W · 115 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e53…5c9dbacked Trail Blazers | 63c | 67.71$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.05 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.28per pick | 57cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11fa…ebf3backed Trail Blazers | 52c | 47.84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.93 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +5.2wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x13a8…642bbacked Trail Blazers | 64c | 45.06$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 174 | 66.1%115 W · 59 L | +13.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Rockets | 43c | 42.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab7…180ebacked Trail Blazers | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd63e…0d52backed Trail Blazers | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 165 | 55.2%91 W · 74 L | -12.1wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x08b6…7db6backed Trail Blazers | 53c | 37.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 120 | 62.5%75 W · 45 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4883…98abbacked Trail Blazers | 72c | 35.71$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 77cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Trail Blazers | 52c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58e0…ebecbacked Trail Blazers | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda89…e67dbacked Trail Blazers | 72c | 14.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Rockets (-7.5)this page
- Rockets vs. Trail BlazersTrail Blazers won
- Rockets vs. Trail Blazers: 1H MoneylineRockets won
- Rockets vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 219.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 220.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 221.5Under won
- Spread: Rockets (-5.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Rockets (-6.5)Trail Blazers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.