TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-01-10?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$423,312
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$446,775

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $423,312 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 212 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdc87…7ab6backed Yes46c108,227$49,287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49,287.310553.3%56 W · 49 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x808d…c1babacked No54c91,224$49,261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41,963.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed No55c30,140$16,577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,562.992740.7%11 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid+12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Yes45c29,999$13,594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,594.0733945.7%155 W · 184 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Yes45c25,732$11,602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,602.0215134.4%52 W · 99 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No64c19,931$12,658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,273.533,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5bd…2182backed No55c19,862$10,924 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,938.1742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-21.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Yes50c13,895$7,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,014.5417251.7%89 W · 83 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed No69c12,451$8,644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,806.9775142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed No55c11,773$6,492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,281.2669851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked No56c11,300$6,328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,972580%4 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick66cpaid+27.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Yes44c10,000$4,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,399.9533244.6%148 W · 184 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd178…6703backed Yes17c9,662$1,643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,642.541553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick45cpaid-4.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked No55c8,574$4,714 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,860.081,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4818…bf0bbacked Yes45c8,100$3,645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,645.026144.3%27 W · 34 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52ed…8db7backed No51c7,843$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,843.141330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-40.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3da4…28d7backed No55c7,000$3,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,1501735.3%6 W · 11 L-2.4wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-32%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Yes51c6,858$3,478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,477.5710154.5%55 W · 46 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x23c8…f293backed No55c6,244$3,434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,809.83154.8%17 W · 14 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+26.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa196…5b78backed Yes46c5,783$2,659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,658.899831.6%31 W · 67 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-26%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked No55c5,000$2,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,2508752.9%46 W · 41 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7cd…0888backed No56c5,000$2,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,199.991833.3%6 W · 12 L-2.7wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-29.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed No52c4,682$2,428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,254.0656547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45d9…a89abacked Yes22c3,501$770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$770.146726.9%18 W · 49 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5543…e1f5backed Yes45c3,055$1,374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,374.393721.6%8 W · 29 L-6.0wins-0.16per pick38cpaid-64.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4b62…2e59backed No49c3,000$1,470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5304252.4%22 W · 20 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x97e0…8194backed No49c3,000$1,470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,53011644.8%52 W · 64 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf142…57e7backed No50c3,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,50023046.5%107 W · 123 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Yes50c3,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,499.999854.1%53 W · 45 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes44c2,814$1,249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,249.027423%17 W · 57 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x78f7…2c5dbacked No53c2,734$1,449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,284.933748.6%18 W · 19 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Yes45c2,580$1,165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,165.0244749.4%221 W · 226 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Yes21c2,507$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523.716553.8%35 W · 30 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2e2…4e99backed No56c2,500$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1003246.9%15 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e33…afb3backed Yes45c2,222$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0005147.1%24 W · 27 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked No61c1,831$1,117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$713.971,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf92f…bdb2backed Yes1c1,686$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes11c1,611$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.5928241.5%117 W · 165 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2278…3188backed Yes6c1,566$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd05f…8777backed No49c1,348$657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$690.776126.2%16 W · 45 L-7.8wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-52.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x90e0…ff4cbacked Yes4c1,300$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$526010%6 W · 54 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+119.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x927b…3735backed Yes1c1,250$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick24cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x865f…e88ebacked Yes46c1,212$557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$556.7234342%144 W · 199 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e5b…5950backed No80c1,202$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.472650%13 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+14.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes45c1,000$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4504544.4%20 W · 25 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+13.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked Yes45c1,000$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45038055.8%212 W · 168 L-0.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes3c1,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259621.9%21 W · 75 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8da…cad3backed No56c1,000$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4402378.3%18 W · 5 L+5.8wins+0.25per pick53cpaid+46.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x4fc1…ec92backed No49c999.92$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$509.963748.6%18 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3eee…e8b6backed No50c942$471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47110945.9%50 W · 59 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d0c…bcebbacked No56c922.95$517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.15440.7%22 W · 32 L-4.1wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-7.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Yes13c845$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.2713139.7%52 W · 79 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-28.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed No56c714.29$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.2922747.1%107 W · 120 L+11.6wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4a9b…f4edbacked Yes45c711.05$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.222755.6%15 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8dee…412bbacked No57c614.04$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.048846.6%41 W · 47 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3ba…e793backed Yes8c608.2$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.664360.5%26 W · 17 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Yes44c600$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26416850%84 W · 84 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed No56c534$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.9618545.9%85 W · 100 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f78…bfcabacked Yes3c512.61$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.532441.7%10 W · 14 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-21.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2060…9186backed Yes45c500.71$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.324658.7%27 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+8.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35b9…1d44backed Yes44c500$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2205044%22 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb023…f142backed No49c500$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2555554.5%30 W · 25 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b97…3f54backed Yes20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10060%0 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a46…ba91backed Yes40c447.7$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.348858%51 W · 37 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc49e…3b3dbacked Yes5c445.78$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21650%3 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+37.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfef0…7708backed Yes45c444.44$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-37%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3dcd…2455backed Yes47c425.53$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick61cpaid-6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x838a…add1backed Yes44c409.09$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dcf…4eb4backed Yes45c400.98$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.443857.9%22 W · 16 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Yes44c400.01$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17611056.4%62 W · 48 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8aea…ec91backed No56c400$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1762360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+14.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe5cf…c348backed Yes45c344.44$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1551844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8bd…df80backed Yes45c333.33$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+18.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2085…dd27backed Yes6c333.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-35.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes5c331.61$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1223842.9%102 W · 136 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde6c…c5d8backed Yes46c329.8$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.712250%11 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+18.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Yes44c315.44$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.794772.3%34 W · 13 L+5.5wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+24.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Yes49c298.04$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.0514756.5%83 W · 64 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c42…a2bdbacked Yes18c280$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.4944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0bd4…49b7backed Yes19c263.16$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506451.6%33 W · 31 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes33c257.95$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8420436.3%74 W · 130 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf43d…1e75backed Yes8c250$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.71118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-32.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed No55c248.02$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.6130054%162 W · 138 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb269…6adebacked Yes45c222.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003839.5%15 W · 23 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-18.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa89e…4ab4backed Yes45c220$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$996660.6%40 W · 26 L+4.6wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+11.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x937a…dbc8backed Yes46c217.39$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87d5…9790backed Yes47c212.77$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002050%10 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c86…15c0backed Yes45c208.91$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.0117652.3%92 W · 84 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed No51c207.04$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.4512651.6%65 W · 61 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x566e…1340backed Yes47c200.03$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.355250%26 W · 26 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Yes49c200$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$985326.4%14 W · 39 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-25.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x38dd…c20abacked No55c200$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4300…5c69backed No55c200$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$906136.1%22 W · 39 L-5.4wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-18.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked No56c200$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8814539.3%57 W · 88 L-9.6wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-14.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe6f0…5701backed Yes8c200$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152025%5 W · 15 L-2.7wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-38.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2810…a1a8backed No54c200$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$927753.2%41 W · 36 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe486…0c26backed Yes20c199.88$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.983834.2%13 W · 25 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+16%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd303…729ebacked Yes51c196.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2298…ac49backed Yes16c187.5$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302231.8%7 W · 15 L+3.2wins+0.15per pick17cpaid+54.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2588…1cfdbacked No49c184$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.84650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.