TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. VfB Stuttgart end in a draw?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$54,590
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$54,279

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,590 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe916…4563backed Yes23c4,339$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72b4…7d67backed No75c4,113$3,085 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,028.254938.8%19 W · 30 L-4.7wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-8.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Yes25c3,804$966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$965.8715134.4%52 W · 99 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7250…f52fbacked Yes18c3,000$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5405425.9%14 W · 40 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-25.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yes14c2,492$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.053,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e33…afb3backed Yes24c2,083$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5005147.1%24 W · 27 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcef7…e7d7backed No79c2,008$1,586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421.594062.5%25 W · 15 L+7.2wins+0.18per pick44cpaid+98.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xa6ac…b899backed Yes1c2,004$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0440%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes8c1,756$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.131,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf92f…bdb2backed Yes2c1,741$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Yes25c1,680$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.0956547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed No77c1,515$1,163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.4853645.9%246 W · 290 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76da…30a2backed Yes8c1,296$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1104949%24 W · 25 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+0.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Yes22c1,250$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2758224.4%20 W · 62 L-6.7wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-28.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x14f3…0c3dbacked No76c1,218$926 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.321729.4%5 W · 12 L-2.6wins-0.16per pick45cpaid-28.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4818…bf0bbacked No75c1,000$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2506144.3%27 W · 34 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed No74c999.98$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26011056.4%62 W · 48 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4417…01eebacked Yes2c999.75$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152650%13 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb023…f142backed No76c851$643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.755554.5%30 W · 25 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2412…b5a1backed Yes12c834.76$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.176768.7%46 W · 21 L+6.2wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x347c…525abacked Yes26c803.23$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.843644.4%16 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked No74c698.49$517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.491,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked No75c578.5$434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.627758.4%45 W · 32 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-2.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x471c…9e94backed Yes27c557.4$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.6wins+0.32per pick56cpaid+80.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd2d7…ba47backed Yes24c515.08$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.376251.6%32 W · 30 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed No74c514.31$381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.725457.4%31 W · 23 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+1.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked No74c428.23$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.347062.9%44 W · 26 L+8.9wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+19.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2367…c5b3backed Yes13c384.62$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb14…0da7backed Yes7c378.93$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254330.2%13 W · 30 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-21.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6a2…9874backed Yes26c307.78$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.526344.4%28 W · 35 L+9.8wins+0.16per pick29cpaid+50.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked No74c300.86$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.2215454.5%84 W · 70 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6835…1976backed Yes25c300$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7520545.9%94 W · 111 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5944…bd5bbacked Yes23c299.98$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6913851.4%71 W · 67 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+12.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Yes12c280.95$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3451136.8%188 W · 323 L-28.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-24.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcc0e…0fbdbacked No74c250$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$658461.9%52 W · 32 L+8.6wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+19.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2085…dd27backed Yes7c238.72$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.51323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-35.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x865f…e88ebacked Yes24c237$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.8834342%144 W · 199 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcddb…0d22backed No75c220.4$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.1966.7%6 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick70cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1a9…d58bbacked Yes23c217.39$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503237.5%12 W · 20 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+24.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b35…12b3backed Yes13c200$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262948.3%14 W · 15 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Yes24c192$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.0833945.7%155 W · 184 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa97e…7753backed No74c190$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.49659.4%57 W · 39 L+7.9wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+14.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Yes20c184$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.476234.8%265 W · 497 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed No74c180$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.825659.4%152 W · 104 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed No75c159.57$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.8914756.5%83 W · 64 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2298…ac49backed Yes18c139.42$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252231.8%7 W · 15 L+3.2wins+0.15per pick17cpaid+54.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x604d…4608backed Yes26c134.62$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352737%10 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf43d…1e75backed Yes15c133.32$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-32.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2692…2698backed No74c132.57$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.4711563.5%73 W · 42 L+13.5wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+25.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe486…0c26backed Yes12c130$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.63834.2%13 W · 25 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+16%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1436…e23dbacked No75c128$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321573.3%11 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick65cpaid+14.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f61…a4fcbacked Yes23c126.22$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9820%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x31ce…88cdbacked No74c120$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.26460.9%39 W · 25 L+6.3wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+19.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4109…7e24backed No74c120$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.28261%50 W · 32 L+8.5wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+22.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd4fd…4e90backed Yes25c119.68$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9220%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9453…6952backed Yes26c115.38$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309250%46 W · 46 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x468d…cf23backed Yes26c115.38$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-39.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf711…db0bbacked No75c100$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252128.6%6 W · 15 L-4.1wins-0.19per pick48cpaid-57.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xcf70…7d5fbacked Yes26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266147.5%29 W · 32 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfee4…d386backed Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7518746%86 W · 101 L-9.8wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-14.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x33af…288abacked Yes20c90.38$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1827142.8%116 W · 155 L+18.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+17.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1551…fdc0backed Yes23c87.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.12837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-30.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xddd7…1596backed Yes25c80.76$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8325855.4%143 W · 115 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3fb9…1591backed No76c80.21$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.032343.5%10 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-18.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51ce…43fabacked Yes26c76.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206526.2%17 W · 48 L-0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9aaf…8298backed No75c75$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.7521450%107 W · 107 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7a0…05c4backed Yes26c73.72$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.17425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-29.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a3a…a871backed Yes26c73.08$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f89…b87ebacked No79c64.95$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.8560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bdf…8adabacked No74c60$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.611360.2%68 W · 45 L+10.1wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+17.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6afd…5cb1backed No74c60$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.611759.8%70 W · 47 L+10.2wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+18.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb95e…c6d6backed No74c60$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.65558.2%32 W · 23 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4edd…b1a1backed No74c60$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.69861.2%60 W · 38 L+9.9wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+20.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xac70…d0e7backed Yes26c57.69$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed Yes26c57.69$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1517547.4%83 W · 92 L-9.0wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Yes22c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116553.8%35 W · 30 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb311…2b64backed Yes24c45$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick25cpaid+35.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4ba…c5d8backed No75c40$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1015160.9%92 W · 59 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c90…3f67backed Yes26c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2df5…51acbacked Yes25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-0.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d93…fa80backed Yes25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked No75c36.68$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.3513852.2%72 W · 66 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ec8…397bbacked No76c35$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.254143.9%18 W · 23 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-27.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a2f…c5d0backed No75c26.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.672050%10 W · 10 L-4.7wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-31.4%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x760e…bcfebacked No79c25.47$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.352100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+45.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd3a…9993backed No75c23.28$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.825865.5%38 W · 20 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x26ae…97b8backed No75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57466.2%49 W · 25 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+12.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9158…ba55backed No75c19.16$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.712165.3%79 W · 42 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa870…2cd1backed No76c16.44$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.9511281.3%91 W · 21 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick76cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.