NHL · resolved market
Golden Knights vs. Sharks: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x96bb8a7f62844d76c5e93c3fa7f8fbbd24e561ff67ce6013a8faa42b95bf6470
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $205,151
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $205,808
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $205,151 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 48c | 177,326$85,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85,040.27 | 561 | 52%292 W · 269 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03e8…1697backed Over | 52c | 150,987$78,513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72,473.69 | 670 | 51%342 W · 328 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Over | 52c | 15,687$8,157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,529.76 | 243 | 49.8%121 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 52c | 7,482$3,916 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,566.04 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Over | 52c | 6,270$3,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,009.6 | 283 | 53%150 W · 133 L | +16.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc350…3669backed Over | 53c | 5,660$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,660.38 | 309 | 44.7%138 W · 171 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 52c | 3,172$1,651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,520.4 | 272 | 43.4%118 W · 154 L | -16.8wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 53c | 3,012$1,588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,424.86 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 47c | 2,500$1,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,175 | 849 | 53.8%457 W · 392 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 53c | 2,401$1,263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,137.4 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 47c | 2,325$1,102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,101.67 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Over | 52c | 1,005$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.25 | 308 | 55.5%171 W · 137 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa70b…7a8abacked Over | 52c | 834.62$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.62 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Under | 49c | 816.33$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 318 | 48.1%153 W · 165 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3349…c0b8backed Over | 52c | 755$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.65 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb080…5eddbacked Over | 52c | 576.92$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.92 | 162 | 46.9%76 W · 86 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Under | 48c | 480$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.4 | 162 | 35.2%57 W · 105 L | -9.3wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 47c | 443.99$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.68 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…4f9cbacked Over | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 160 | 56.3%90 W · 70 L | +11.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Over | 51c | 300$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 759 | 46.6%354 W · 405 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 52c | 250$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked Over | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 309 | 52.4%162 W · 147 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…56c2backed Under | 47c | 154.14$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.44 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Over | 54c | 122.22$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.22 | 696 | 53.4%372 W · 324 L | -16.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda75…bbf9backed Over | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 206 | 55.3%114 W · 92 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa295…f55abacked Under | 48c | 100.54$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.44 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 599 | 50.4%302 W · 297 L | +20.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 490 | 45.3%222 W · 268 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 388 | 57.2%222 W · 166 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd77d…b01cbacked Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 152 | 57.2%87 W · 65 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a64…6769backed Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | +12.6wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 47c | 84$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.06 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Over | 53c | 66.04$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 432 | 56.5%244 W · 188 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 53c | 62.89$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.56 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 54c | 60.39$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.97 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8c…237dbacked Under | 47c | 43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a71…4f0fbacked Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaeba…d2d8backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 91 | 49.5%45 W · 46 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc151…99e5backed Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12d1…4130backed Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.36per pick | 50cpaid | +76.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 48c | 31.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 48c | 31.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2db9…846cbacked Over | 53c | 21.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 47c | 21.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 451 | 51.2%231 W · 220 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7662…7930backed Under | 49c | 20.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -4.8wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -24%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Golden Knights vs. Sharks: O/U 6.5this page
- Golden Knights vs. SharksGolden Knights won
- Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)Golden Knights won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.