NHL · resolved market
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ea6bfba11b680d4f3c6b3c3a2fe1893ae06e618163546b0e72b66a48075601e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Golden Knightsof Golden Knights, Sharks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,377
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,757
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,377 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb973…ff16backed Sharks | 65c | 2,308$1,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,498.92 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Sharks | 64c | 1,597$1,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,022.42 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1222…2aa7backed Golden Knights | 36c | 1,542$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$986.88 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Golden Knights | 35c | 1,438$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$934.67 | 514 | 52.3%269 W · 245 L | +17.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1307…d640backed Golden Knights | 33c | 1,024$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$683.2 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Sharks | 67c | 1,000$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670 | 196 | 45.9%90 W · 106 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Golden Knights | 35c | 758.48$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.01 | 162 | 35.2%57 W · 105 L | -9.3wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Golden Knights | 36c | 673.97$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.56 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Sharks | 38c | 625.66$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.79 | 273 | 34.4%94 W · 179 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +22%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…56c2backed Sharks | 64c | 463.86$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.87 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8861…e19fbacked Golden Knights | 41c | 343.35$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.35 | 177 | 53.1%94 W · 83 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Golden Knights | 39c | 300$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.5 | 541 | 32.7%177 W · 364 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Sharks | 59c | 230.81$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.18 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1c…2a3ebacked Sharks | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Golden Knights | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 1,406 | 47%661 W · 745 L | +58.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30ad…6a69backed Sharks | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 231 | 58%134 W · 97 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Golden Knights | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.95 | 201 | 45.8%92 W · 109 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Sharks | 63c | 59.25$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.33 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Sharks | 64c | 43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 619 | 53.8%333 W · 286 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5912…2fe0backed Sharks | 64c | 31.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a3…790fbacked Golden Knights | 37c | 31.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Sharks | 33c | 31.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 740 | 54.5%403 W · 337 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1769…94efbacked Sharks | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 349 | 49.9%174 W · 175 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeba…d2d8backed Sharks | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 91 | 49.5%45 W · 46 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc436…76c9backed Sharks | 64c | 23.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8c…237dbacked Sharks | 55c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)this page
- Golden Knights vs. SharksGolden Knights won
- Golden Knights vs. Sharks: O/U 6.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.