NBA · resolved market
Spread: Thunder (-11.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ad5d2f31699f47dcdc8691c94a3520ecc04f6457fe49fc434cbbfa08af4016d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Thunderof Thunder, Bucks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $144,040
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $144,580
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $144,040 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Bucks | 48c | 68,078$32,509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32,508.71 | 593 | 47%279 W · 314 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9165…5b98backed Thunder | 53c | 61,813$32,761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29,051.91 | 252 | 48.4%122 W · 130 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Bucks | 50c | 45,135$22,764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,763.6 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Thunder | 51c | 26,088$13,292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,795.88 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad3…a392backed Thunder | 49c | 10,373$5,083 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,290.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Bucks | 47c | 9,000$4,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,230 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…e842backed Thunder | 49c | 7,347$3,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,746.93 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Thunder | 50c | 7,228$3,614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,613.53 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a91…1769backed Thunder | 49c | 5,153$2,525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,628.06 | 321 | 50.8%163 W · 158 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67b6…00bcbacked Thunder | 49c | 2,847$1,395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,452.03 | 242 | 52.5%127 W · 115 L | +18.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Bucks | 47c | 2,553$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,199.91 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Thunder | 51c | 2,355$1,201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,153.85 | 484 | 48.8%236 W · 248 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Bucks | 50c | 2,211$1,097 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,096.99 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1748…a816backed Thunder | 51c | 2,165$1,104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,060.71 | 173 | 44.5%77 W · 96 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4440…f8fdbacked Thunder | 49c | 2,104$1,031 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,073.08 | 99 | 52.5%52 W · 47 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Bucks | 51c | 1,961$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a8…a48ebacked Thunder | 50c | 1,439$719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$719.89 | 143 | 58.7%84 W · 59 L | +12.9wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Thunder | 51c | 1,177$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.73 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Bucks | 47c | 1,009$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.23 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…2c8bbacked Thunder | 49c | 969.39$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.39 | 357 | 49.6%177 W · 180 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Bucks | 51c | 820$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.2 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcea6…67adbacked Bucks | 49c | 612.24$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 284 | 48.2%137 W · 147 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x392c…bb64backed Bucks | 50c | 558$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Thunder | 52c | 522$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.74 | 193 | 50.3%97 W · 96 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbec5…8f77backed Thunder | 51c | 500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 211 | 39.8%84 W · 127 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Bucks | 48c | 461.98$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.4 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Bucks | 47c | 411.69$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.29 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a44…6db6backed Bucks | 48c | 310.42$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Bucks | 52c | 307.69$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46bd…37e8backed Bucks | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 168 | 37.5%63 W · 105 L | -20.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -25%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf93d…f36dbacked Thunder | 51c | 297$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.53 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +6.3wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9932…f309backed Thunder | 52c | 250$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2684…224fbacked Thunder | 51c | 245.1$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa61b…1872backed Bucks | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Thunder | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c79…1bd5backed Thunder | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Bucks | 47c | 184.18$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.56 | 596 | 53.4%318 W · 278 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc1…e318backed Thunder | 51c | 168.8$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.71 | 530 | 43.8%232 W · 298 L | -25.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Bucks | 49c | 163.27$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 818 | 45.7%374 W · 444 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Thunder | 51c | 136$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.64 | 430 | 52.3%225 W · 205 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1041…f452backed Thunder | 52c | 126.92$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.92 | 269 | 49.1%132 W · 137 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5f…c982backed Bucks | 52c | 110.92$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Thunder | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 378 | 50.3%190 W · 188 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4a…2215backed Bucks | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 198 | 38.9%77 W · 121 L | -13.2wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…fa04backed Thunder | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 140 | 40%56 W · 84 L | -13.3wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…5685backed Bucks | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x614f…114dbacked Bucks | 52c | 78.85$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 335 | 47.2%158 W · 177 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2c…787cbacked Bucks | 47c | 75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 165 | 49.7%82 W · 83 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Thunder | 49c | 66.86$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.87 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…152cbacked Bucks | 52c | 63.38$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.96 | 484 | 51.2%248 W · 236 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Thunder | 50c | 59.94$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.98 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3335…d0f7backed Thunder | 53c | 52.34$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +94.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x635b…195dbacked Thunder | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 382 | 52.4%200 W · 182 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1a…26c0backed Thunder | 50c | 48.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 219 | 48.9%107 W · 112 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9277…2aedbacked Thunder | 53c | 47.77$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.45 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Bucks | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a0…35b6backed Bucks | 51c | 41.02$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 153 | 48.4%74 W · 79 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a71…4f0fbacked Thunder | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec1…dd29backed Bucks | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 225 | 56.9%128 W · 97 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Bucks | 51c | 39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 712 | 45.8%326 W · 386 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…1db1backed Thunder | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb53c…c76ebacked Bucks | 43c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 487 | 40.7%198 W · 289 L | -13.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Bucks | 46c | 30.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x128f…47afbacked Thunder | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Thunder | 51c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 390 | 41%160 W · 230 L | -32.8wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…fbd1backed Thunder | 49c | 26.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -20%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec89…8de0backed Bucks | 50c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +5.8wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x392c…0bb4backed Thunder | 49c | 24.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 116 | 37.9%44 W · 72 L | -10.1wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Thunder | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Thunder (-11.5)this page
- AJ Green: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Aaron Wiggins: Points O/U 11.5No won
- Giannis Antetokounmpo: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Giannis Antetokounmpo: Points O/U 28.5No won
- Myles Turner: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Spread: Thunder (-12.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Thunder won
- Thunder vs. BucksThunder won
- Thunder vs. Bucks: O/U 223.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Bucks: O/U 224.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Bucks: O/U 225.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Bucks: O/U 226.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Bucks: O/U 227.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.