NBA · resolved market
Thunder vs. Bucks: O/U 223.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf95ebcf6977ea999a8335f4f29258b8a73ef6fece5d639633a1e5b822bec0d64
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,298
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,953
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,298 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Over | 53c | 8,963$4,738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,224.74 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 46c | 7,913$3,640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,639.94 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 29c | 4,654$1,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,359.51 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e1…3ff3backed Over | 52c | 3,210$1,669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,540.79 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d4…2bacbacked Over | 50c | 1,696$852 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$843.72 | 478 | 56.5%270 W · 208 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 50c | 1,674$836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$836.45 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…ebeabacked Over | 52c | 1,011$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.01 | 119 | 45.4%54 W · 65 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3704…0e84backed Under | 50c | 486$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243 | 259 | 51.4%133 W · 126 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44bc…c53ebacked Under | 50c | 308.04$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.02 | 191 | 49.7%95 W · 96 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 56c | 300.53$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.67 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 47c | 300$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 53c | 206$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.54 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2d…241bbacked Under | 55c | 172.6$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.65 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88b5…7b0bbacked Under | 37c | 150$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 148.57$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.37 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 49c | 76$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.76 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc091…3d42backed Under | 51c | 76$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.76 | 543 | 51.6%280 W · 263 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 65c | 73.03$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.52 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Over | 53c | 68.36$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.86 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Over | 55c | 62.63$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.32 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Under | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 634 | 27.3%173 W · 461 L | -19.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Over | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 493 | 51.7%255 W · 238 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6312…f94ebacked Over | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -5.0wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -30%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 49c | 44.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25e7…51d6backed Over | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Under | 50c | 34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 193 | 50.3%97 W · 96 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 52c | 24.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 415 | 56.9%236 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 348 | 49.7%173 W · 175 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Thunder vs. Bucks: O/U 223.5this page
- AJ Green: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Aaron Wiggins: Points O/U 11.5No won
- Giannis Antetokounmpo: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Giannis Antetokounmpo: Points O/U 28.5No won
- Myles Turner: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Spread: Thunder (-11.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-12.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Thunder won
- Thunder vs. BucksThunder won
- Thunder vs. Bucks: O/U 224.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Bucks: O/U 225.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Bucks: O/U 226.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Bucks: O/U 227.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.