NBA · resolved market
Thunder vs. Bucks: O/U 227.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd429ef9274a9957166e0d3d4ae9611736da52cdf845450bc1227d885ed43d805
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $168,264
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $171,147
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $168,264 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbf42…d698backed Over | 47c | 105,362$49,377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49,376.51 | 170 | 31.8%54 W · 116 L | -24.9wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Under | 53c | 84,267$44,661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39,605.26 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e6…d504backed Over | 44c | 37,847$16,759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,759.35 | 210 | 57.1%120 W · 90 L | +20.3wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 55c | 34,977$19,273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,703.81 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 57c | 8,567$4,883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,684 | 662 | 50.8%336 W · 326 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 54c | 7,500$4,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,450 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 52c | 2,528$1,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,208.45 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01b4…372ebacked Over | 6c | 1,666$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 298 | 10.4%31 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.08per pick | 3cpaid | +230.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 55c | 1,527$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$687.15 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 55c | 1,340$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.15 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 46c | 1,018$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.34 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 54c | 1,011$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.06 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…8b56backed Over | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 56c | 810.33$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.82 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 11c | 474.29$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.15 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c36…9433backed Under | 56c | 446.43$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.43 | 156 | 41.7%65 W · 91 L | -13.9wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xefa5…3d34backed Under | 54c | 267.13$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.13 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d59…31dcbacked Under | 62c | 250$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.11 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 46c | 242.13$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.38 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 55c | 199.75$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.89 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d29…6da9backed Over | 52c | 192.79$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 142 | 55.6%79 W · 63 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 45c | 190.9$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.35 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 34c | 184.58$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.17 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62d0…27d9backed Over | 17c | 167.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.93 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 48c | 167.79$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.25 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd77d…b01cbacked Under | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 269 | 56.1%151 W · 118 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Under | 17c | 151.42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.97 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…e4a3backed Under | 52c | 150$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 410 | 52%213 W · 197 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b1…242fbacked Under | 56c | 130.11$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.25 | 335 | 54.6%183 W · 152 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a64…6769backed Under | 60c | 125$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 173 | 53.2%92 W · 81 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 36c | 112.45$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.8 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…e20fbacked Under | 68c | 101$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.11 | 499 | 38.9%194 W · 305 L | -23.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd482…b402backed Under | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6283…e5c0backed Over | 76c | 100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88b5…7b0bbacked Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe872…fd21backed Under | 56c | 99.99$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 140 | 36.4%51 W · 89 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe47b…1b4bbacked Over | 49c | 99.98$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.99 | 357 | 39.8%142 W · 215 L | -25.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Over | 45c | 94.15$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 43c | 93.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ca…cccbbacked Over | 37c | 92.2$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.17 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Under | 52c | 91.95$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.14 | 668 | 53.4%357 W · 311 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x874e…9bcabacked Over | 70c | 78.44$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.91 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed Under | 65c | 72.4$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 86 | 51.2%44 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 58c | 60.34$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4865…904dbacked Under | 57c | 55.39$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.61 | 243 | 63.8%155 W · 88 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed85…bfacbacked Under | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x70b1…73b2backed Over | 46c | 53.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…389dbacked Under | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 413 | 54%223 W · 190 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Under | 24c | 49.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.76 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f4…5bc0backed Under | 53c | 47.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.24 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0f…bbfebacked Under | 59c | 47.02$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6790…c9e9backed Under | 71c | 46.04$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 44c | 45.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x365f…e1d0backed Over | 33c | 44.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47e5…9b73backed Under | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 425 | 51.3%218 W · 207 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…4a2cbacked Under | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 319 | 47.6%152 W · 167 L | -18.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc5…d36ebacked Under | 66c | 37.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Under | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ac…1afdbacked Under | 60c | 26.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Under | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Under | 53c | 24.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 456 | 51.1%233 W · 223 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a3…8248backed Under | 57c | 21.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 56c | 19.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15e6…5a30backed Under | 57c | 19.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Thunder vs. Bucks: O/U 227.5this page
- AJ Green: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Aaron Wiggins: Points O/U 11.5No won
- Giannis Antetokounmpo: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Giannis Antetokounmpo: Points O/U 28.5No won
- Myles Turner: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Spread: Thunder (-11.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-12.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Thunder won
- Thunder vs. BucksThunder won
- Thunder vs. Bucks: O/U 223.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Bucks: O/U 224.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Bucks: O/U 225.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Bucks: O/U 226.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.