TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x62d0…27d9

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
93
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Premier League, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Premier League at 53 out of 100; worst NBA at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jan 30, 2026, EST2433.3%8 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tennis — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Australian Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Australian Open Men's: Tomas Machac vs Stefanos Tsitsipasbacked Machac · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+48.7%+$15.61
Australian Open Women's: Linda Fruhvirtova vs Tereza Valentovabacked Fruhvirtova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$20.35
Australian Open Men's: Eliot Spizzirri vs Yibing Wubacked Wu · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$116Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$115.97
Australian Open Women's: Maddison Inglis vs Laura Siegemundbacked Siegemund · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$57.3
Australian Open Men's: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Juncheng Shangbacked Shang · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$36.12
Australian Open Women's: Katerina Siniakova vs Amanda Anisimovabacked Siniakova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$13.48
Australian Open Women's: Xinyu Wang vs Jelena Ostapenkobacked Wang · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+244.9%+$83.91
Australian Open Women's: Peyton Stearns vs Petra Marcinkobacked Marcinko · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$24.99
Australian Open Men's: Hubert Hurkacz vs Ethan Quinnbacked Quinn · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+105.2%+$60.75
Australian Open Men's: Lorenzo Musetti vs Lorenzo Sonegobacked Musetti · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+25.6%+$2.57
Australian Open Men's: Sebastian Baez vs Luciano Darderibacked Baez · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$36.13
Australian Open Men's: Rinky Hijikata vs Valentin Vacherotbacked Hijikata · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$27.08
Australian Open Women's: Janice Tjen vs Karolina Pliskovabacked Tjen · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$34.12
Australian Open Women's: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Paula Badosabacked Selekhmeteva · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$86Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST+86.5%+$74.42
Australian Open Men's: Jakub Mensik vs Rafael Jodarbacked Jodar · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$19.49
Australian Open Men's: Frances Tiafoe vs Francisco Comesanabacked Comesana · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$41.56
Australian Open Men's: Hamad Medjedovic vs Alex de Minaurbacked Medjedovic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$43.24
Australian Open Men's: Emilio Nava vs Cameron Norriebacked Nava · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$28.01
Australian Open Men's: Kamil Majchrzak vs Fabian Marozsanbacked Marozsan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST+32.6%+$4.05
Australian Open Women's: Daria Kasatkina vs Nikola Bartunkovabacked Kasatkina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$16.79
Australian Open Women's: Maddison Inglis vs Kimberly Birrellbacked Birrell · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$10.74
Australian Open Men's: Hubert Hurkacz vs Zizou Bergsbacked Hurkacz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+36.7%+$7.83
Australian Open Men's: Vit Kopriva vs Jan-Lennard Struffbacked Kopriva · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+119.4%+$26.79
All 24 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Jan 21, 2026, EST1735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick43cpaid+1.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Champions League — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Olympique de Marseille vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$22.88
Newcastle United FC vs. PSV: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$22.12
Atalanta BC vs. Athletic Club: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST+361.5%+$43.84
SK Slavia Praha vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 4.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$10.68
Qarabağ Ağdam FK vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$17.85
Qarabağ Ağdam FK vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$15.72
Galatasaray SK vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST+216.9%+$51.41
Galatasaray SK vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$11.87
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-01-20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+141.5%+$27.66
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-01-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+288.6%+$37.73
Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-01-20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$14.57
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$13.82
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$10.58
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$10.37
FC Internazionale Milano vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+63.9%+$9.87
Sporting CP vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$13.66
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. FK Bodø/Glimt end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$245Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+53.2%+$130.23
All 17 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jan 22, 2026, EST1118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.14per pick32cpaid-61.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Raptors (-3.5)backed Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+100%+$10
Thunder vs. Bucks: O/U 227.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$28.93
Pacers vs. Celtics: O/U 227.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$20.46
Hawks vs. Grizzliesbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$10.44
Cavaliers vs. Hornetsbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$12.61
Pistons vs. Pelicansbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$19.42
Spurs vs. Rocketsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST+126.1%+$42.33
Clippers vs. Bullsbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$23.51
Suns vs. 76ers: O/U 223.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$14.61
Suns vs. 76ersbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$40.22
Clippers vs. Wizardsbacked Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$17.59
All 11 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Jan 7, 2026, EST955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+26.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Fulham FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST+37.5%+$4.36
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-01-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST+224.3%+$24.95
Will Everton FC win on 2026-01-07?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST+230.6%+$33.73
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-01-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$15.38
Will Manchester City FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$17.77
Will Brentford FC vs. Sunderland AFC end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST+29.4%+$8.64
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$17.82
Will AFC Bournemouth vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$11.78
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2025-12-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST+112.8%+$11.28
All 9 picks, newest first.
Euroleague Inactivelast resolved Jan 21, 2026, EST742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick57cpaid-37.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Euroleague — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Euroleague, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Cricket Inactivelast resolved Jan 21, 2026, EST650%3 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-33.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Cricket — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Cricket, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Serie A Inactivelast resolved Jan 10, 2026, EST580%4 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick66cpaid+42.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Serie A — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-32.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Dec 30, 2025, EST425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-65%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jan 6, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Algeria vs. DR Congo end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$15.44
Will Algeria win on 2026-01-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$15.44
All 2 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 26, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Rams vs. Seahawksbacked Seahawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST+78.6%+$23.57
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will AS Monaco FC vs. Olympique Lyonnais end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+40.4%+$4.04
All 1 picks, newest first.
Asian League Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Asian League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Al Fateh Saudi Club vs. Al Shabab Saudi Club end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+27.7%+$4.11
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in December?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$11.7
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.