NBA · resolved market
Spread: Raptors (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb013442e55ae70c5343361a38ff91d9b7bdfb9d2be6fd5b1fbb873a15a660ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Raptorsof Raptors, Kings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,172
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,987
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,172 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8d36…68fdbacked Kings | 51c | 7,135$3,664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,664.12 | 127 | 40.9%52 W · 75 L | -15.3wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x03f9…f78ebacked Raptors | 57c | 5,142$2,931 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,210.96 | 133 | 39.1%52 W · 81 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Kings | 43c | 3,981$1,712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,711.77 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Raptors | 50c | 3,749$1,875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,874.54 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Raptors | 47c | 1,801$846 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$954.53 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Raptors | 44c | 1,703$756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$947.07 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Kings | 53c | 1,545$817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$817.45 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Kings | 43c | 950.48$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.71 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Raptors | 47c | 938.46$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.7 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c80…8a1dbacked Raptors | 49c | 573.47$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.47 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Kings | 41c | 462.44$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.44 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Kings | 40c | 420.69$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.7 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1aa…16cfbacked Raptors | 61c | 412.74$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.74 | 151 | 61.6%93 W · 58 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Raptors | 60c | 333.33$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.33 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7793…33a6backed Kings | 39c | 235.82$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.97 | 293 | 44.4%130 W · 163 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Kings | 43c | 234.64$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.9 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…dc80backed Raptors | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 197 | 41.6%82 W · 115 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Raptors | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b1…242fbacked Raptors | 57c | 140.35$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.35 | 335 | 54.6%183 W · 152 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Kings | 45c | 133.33$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 334 | 42.8%143 W · 191 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5885…14c1backed Raptors | 57c | 111.4$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.9 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…8646backed Kings | 44c | 107.98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.51 | 625 | 41.9%262 W · 363 L | -32.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Kings | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Raptors | 59c | 76.27$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.27 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Kings | 40c | 74.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b5…7b0bbacked Raptors | 33c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2dfd…920fbacked Raptors | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…4a2cbacked Raptors | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 319 | 47.6%152 W · 167 L | -18.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f93…3e77backed Raptors | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +83.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Raptors | 54c | 36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 193 | 50.3%97 W · 96 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…dee4backed Raptors | 59c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 102 | 55.9%57 W · 45 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Raptors | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Kings | 45c | 29.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7676…ada4backed Raptors | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 173 | 45.1%78 W · 95 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b98…e5d1backed Raptors | 48c | 21.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 81 | 58%47 W · 34 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62d0…27d9backed Raptors | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f30…a479backed Raptors | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Raptors (-3.5)this page
- Malik Monk: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Precious Achiuwa: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Raptors vs. KingsRaptors won
- Raptors vs. Kings: 1H MoneylineKings won
- Raptors vs. Kings: 1H O/U 108.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Kings: O/U 223.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Kings: O/U 224.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Kings: O/U 225.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Kings: O/U 226.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Kings: O/U 227.5Over won
- Sandro Mamukelashvili: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Spread: Raptors (-4.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-5.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-6.5)Raptors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.