NBA · resolved market
Raptors vs. Kings: O/U 226.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe7ee9508cf990443dbe4c846b1c90d4507950636c54226f53ab9d7bd4d29655c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $83,474
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $83,572
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $83,474 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 49c | 55,542$27,193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,192.95 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2db…aa08backed Over | 51c | 53,298$27,182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,116.07 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Under | 55c | 7,813$4,297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,296.71 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf35…b5eabacked Over | 50c | 6,767$3,384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,383.5 | 132 | 39.4%52 W · 80 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 50c | 5,337$2,670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,669.51 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 45c | 2,250$1,023 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,227.58 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7cd…0888backed Over | 50c | 1,494$747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$747 | 177 | 44.1%78 W · 99 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Under | 53c | 1,111$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.41 | 193 | 50.3%97 W · 96 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 51c | 1,043$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.07 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 45c | 1,043$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570.39 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 784 | 45.8%359 W · 425 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…8b56backed Over | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…405cbacked Over | 50c | 868$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434 | 434 | 53.2%231 W · 203 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Over | 50c | 799.81$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.91 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 48c | 761.54$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.81 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea2b…1fc6backed Under | 55c | 756.13$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.87 | 382 | 53.4%204 W · 178 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Under | 53c | 600$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318 | 560 | 43.9%246 W · 314 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Over | 45c | 448.07$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.44 | 401 | 46.9%188 W · 213 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc1…e318backed Under | 49c | 444.4$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.58 | 530 | 43.8%232 W · 298 L | -25.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c10…8977backed Under | 53c | 346.09$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.43 | 623 | 47.7%297 W · 326 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb153…d8b5backed Over | 48c | 314.98$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.79 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 47c | 284.55$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.81 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Over | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 366 | 49.5%181 W · 185 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x922e…7d04backed Over | 50c | 140$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbec4…637fbacked Over | 49c | 119.39$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.89 | 531 | 49.3%262 W · 269 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Under | 50c | 110$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9466…1f15backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 208 | 47.1%98 W · 110 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 48c | 83.66$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.57 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x381d…818cbacked Under | 52c | 82.96$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.14 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.33per pick | 55cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5631…bd3abacked Under | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | +6.4wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Under | 48c | 79.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.39 | 451 | 46.1%208 W · 243 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 49c | 77.66$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.05 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 51c | 75.04$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.77 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c06…84a9backed Over | 47c | 65.81$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.88 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Over | 47c | 59$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.27 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 53c | 56.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5961…56dbbacked Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 378 | 48.9%185 W · 193 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7f…7aecbacked Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 436 | 47.9%209 W · 227 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc44f…d49fbacked Over | 53c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 483 | 52%251 W · 232 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5767…8cc1backed Over | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 1,084 | 42.4%460 W · 624 L | -48.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…8ff5backed Under | 53c | 30.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Under | 51c | 26.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 806 | 53.6%432 W · 374 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Under | 52c | 21.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Raptors vs. Kings: O/U 226.5this page
- Malik Monk: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Precious Achiuwa: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Raptors vs. KingsRaptors won
- Raptors vs. Kings: 1H MoneylineKings won
- Raptors vs. Kings: 1H O/U 108.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Kings: O/U 223.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Kings: O/U 224.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Kings: O/U 225.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Kings: O/U 227.5Over won
- Sandro Mamukelashvili: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Spread: Raptors (-3.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-4.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-5.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-6.5)Raptors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.