NBA · resolved market

Raptors vs. Kings: O/U 225.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d0267435a0fbb1dd3a785948659dd5bc7b0aef370101a6b23159052968b625c

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Jan 22, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $124,306
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $125,015

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $124,306 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x6e82…752cbacked Under	51c	29,722$15,087 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15,086.93	1,204	55.3%666 W · 538 L	+52.0wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+12.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3fa…a26cbacked Over	54c	18,520$10,001 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,519.2	245	49%120 W · 125 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over	50c	17,789$8,918 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,871.4	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Under	46c	16,036$7,444 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,444.38	2,666	48%1,279 W · 1,387 L	-8.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Over	49c	15,200$7,403 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,797.31	477	51.8%247 W · 230 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed Over	52c	11,000$5,720 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,280	458	50.4%231 W · 227 L	+11.4wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	50c	9,884$4,907 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,976.32	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea2b…1fc6backed Under	52c	6,463$3,361 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,360.79	382	53.4%204 W · 178 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Over	52c	6,390$3,301 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,089.19	2,091	47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L	-56.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Under	52c	5,998$3,119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,118.96	2,078	53.6%1,113 W · 965 L	+44.6wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08c5…43edbacked Under	48c	4,167$2,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,000	443	52.4%232 W · 211 L	+10.3wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb177…1914backed Under	50c	3,510$1,755 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,755	248	47.6%118 W · 130 L	-6.0wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x56be…57eebacked Over	51c	2,941$1,500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,441.18	211	43.1%91 W · 120 L	-6.4wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a91…1769backed Under	50c	2,886$1,443 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,443.14	321	50.8%163 W · 158 L	+5.3wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Over	73c	2,416$1,775 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$641.63	830	39.4%327 W · 503 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Under	52c	2,044$1,062 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,062	477	48.8%233 W · 244 L	+1.8wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Over	53c	2,000$1,060 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$940	877	50.2%440 W · 437 L	-19.7wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb820…cbe7backed Over	48c	2,000$960 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,040	589	51.3%302 W · 287 L	+6.2wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Over	52c	1,863$974 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$888.69	2,468	50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L	+38.4wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2917…be8fbacked Under	48c	1,333$640 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$639.84	23	30.4%7 W · 16 L	-3.4wins	-0.15per pick	45cpaid	-56%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe62e…d3e2backed Under	29c	1,064$304 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$304.31	106	44.3%47 W · 59 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe403…3d50backed Over	48c	1,045$502 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$543.4	547	47.5%260 W · 287 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Over	48c	962.64$464 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$498.67	956	51.5%492 W · 464 L	+23.9wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Over	49c	800$392 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$408	456	47.1%215 W · 241 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over	48c	706.48$342 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$364.45	2,736	46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L	-67.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd93b…cd48backed Under	49c	665.31$326 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$326	179	53.1%95 W · 84 L	+7.9wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Under	51c	564$286 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$285.98	1,055	49.9%526 W · 529 L	+29.7wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over	52c	460.51$240 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$220.21	2,630	36.7%966 W · 1,664 L	-119.1wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x40da…0b85backed Over	49c	406.13$199 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$207.13	82	32.9%27 W · 55 L	-15.2wins	-0.19per pick	52cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	34-0.14 edge/pick
0xa9b1…242fbacked Under	47c	406$191 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$191.16	335	54.6%183 W · 152 L	+7.9wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Under	47c	400$188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$188	1,475	51.3%756 W · 719 L	+35.2wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc688…5987backed Under	20c	335$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67	323	46.4%150 W · 173 L	-8.3wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Under	46c	329.69$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.66	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Under	48c	320$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152.66	193	50.3%97 W · 96 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f7…2633backed Under	52c	312.49$164 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$164.04	69	47.8%33 W · 36 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x15d5…ef7bbacked Over	48c	300$144 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$156	1,198	38.8%465 W · 733 L	+11.6wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over	49c	266.96$130 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$136.5	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45e1…c872backed Over	49c	234.06$115 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$119.37	32	53.1%17 W · 15 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	55cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6b8…6f30backed Under	51c	232.97$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.82	29	27.6%8 W · 21 L	-3.9wins	-0.13per pick	41cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1db3…ada1backed Under	48c	188$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.61	689	40.2%277 W · 412 L	-54.9wins	-0.08per pick	48cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3222…58ecbacked Over	53c	185.2$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$87.04	30	46.7%14 W · 16 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-16%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Under	46c	179.57$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.52	888	45.7%406 W · 482 L	-12.2wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over	47c	159$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$83.68	5,844	46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L	+32.7wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x728a…a75cbacked Under	52c	150$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.2wins	-0.17per pick	45cpaid	-1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb8a0…35b6backed Under	52c	149.96$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.98	153	48.4%74 W · 79 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa90…d716backed Under	48c	104.17$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	32	43.8%14 W · 18 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4137…586cbacked Under	52c	100$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	470	43.8%206 W · 264 L	-22.2wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5215…3164backed Under	52c	100$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	114	36.8%42 W · 72 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3dc1…e318backed Over	48c	97.09$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.02	530	43.8%232 W · 298 L	-25.4wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-12%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Over	50c	88.56$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.45	3,668	41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L	-70.7wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Under	46c	84.21$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.74	2,602	50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L	-20.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e47…a7abbacked Over	52c	75$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36	498	52.4%261 W · 237 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Over	53c	70$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.04	3,551	46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e77backed Under	29c	68.09$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.75	927	50.6%469 W · 458 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3ed4…620ebacked Under	54c	59.98$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.39	311	55%171 W · 140 L	+8.0wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x785f…e3d9backed Over	49c	57.7$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.19	1,029	47.7%491 W · 538 L	-13.8wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Over	49c	54.25$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.67	2,208	46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L	+42.7wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb821…5cddbacked Under	52c	50.63$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.33	69	65.2%45 W · 24 L	+5.2wins	+0.07per pick	58cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1e91…3e2abacked Over	49c	48.44$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.7	53	39.6%21 W · 32 L	-6.9wins	-0.13per pick	53cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Under	49c	45$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.95	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over	80c	44$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.8	1,113	41.6%463 W · 650 L	-10.0wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Over	49c	40$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.4	114	43%49 W · 65 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9339…39b0backed Over	48c	40$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.7	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+1.5wins	+0.37per pick	38cpaid	+56.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8677…4d2cbacked Under	53c	37.74$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	156	43.6%68 W · 88 L	-8.0wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xda4f…65babacked Over	54c	36.26$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.63	17	64.7%11 W · 6 L	+2.8wins	+0.17per pick	48cpaid	+36.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Over	49c	34.89$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.79	784	45.8%359 W · 425 L	+5.0wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over	53c	29.08$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.58	1,758	48.7%856 W · 902 L	+28.3wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under	48c	28.53$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.69	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed Over	49c	27.43$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.99	806	53.6%432 W · 374 L	+16.2wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Over	51c	27.18$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.35	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc519…348abacked Under	49c	27$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.22	172	43%74 W · 98 L	-12.4wins	-0.07per pick	50cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x392c…0bb4backed Over	50c	24.69$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.26	116	37.9%44 W · 72 L	-10.1wins	-0.09per pick	47cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Over	54c	23.78$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.04	1,695	44.7%758 W · 937 L	-30.4wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Over	51c	22.9$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.22	668	53.4%357 W · 311 L	+22.5wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ff7…9ab6backed Over	51c	20.14$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.92	454	60.4%274 W · 180 L	+21.6wins	+0.05per pick	56cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x47ba…a503backed Under	51c	19.61$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	169	42.6%72 W · 97 L	-5.0wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x727d…1589backed Over	60c	18.34$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.3	192	32.8%63 W · 129 L	-18.1wins	-0.09per pick	42cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Raptors vs. Kings: O/U 225.5this page
Malik Monk: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
Precious Achiuwa: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
Raptors vs. KingsRaptors won
Raptors vs. Kings: 1H MoneylineKings won
Raptors vs. Kings: 1H O/U 108.5Over won
Raptors vs. Kings: O/U 223.5Over won
Raptors vs. Kings: O/U 224.5Over won
Raptors vs. Kings: O/U 226.5Over won
Raptors vs. Kings: O/U 227.5Over won
Sandro Mamukelashvili: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
Spread: Raptors (-3.5)Raptors won
Spread: Raptors (-4.5)Raptors won
Spread: Raptors (-5.5)Raptors won
Spread: Raptors (-6.5)Raptors won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Raptors vs. Kings: O/U 225.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event