TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Raptors vs. Kings

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Raptorsof Raptors, Kings
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,058,716
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,188,770

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,058,716 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,422 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3d89…b02cbacked Kings34c442,627$150,493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150,493.282560%15 W · 10 L+3.8wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+25.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Raptors65c200,087$130,668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69,419.7354539.6%216 W · 329 L-28.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcec3…b76dbacked Raptors67c199,185$133,454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65,731.05425%1 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.34per pick59cpaid-62.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Raptors72c196,228$141,292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54,936.2396447.8%461 W · 503 L+35.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Kings11c154,125$17,393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,393.461,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd9b…414dbacked Kings35c150,433$52,405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52,404.8251844.4%230 W · 288 L+11.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07b8…8e25backed Raptors66c100,000$65,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,499.9223257.8%134 W · 98 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x93ab…9723backed Kings35c97,453$34,109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,108.5660351.4%310 W · 293 L+16.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Raptors66c83,245$54,942 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,303.3647751.8%247 W · 230 L+1.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Raptors68c51,063$34,802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,261.852,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1bc0…4429backed Kings35c50,000$17,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,50048343.7%211 W · 272 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Kings33c47,074$15,534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,534.451,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x08c5…43edbacked Raptors48c41,941$20,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,940.7944352.4%232 W · 211 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6a3…2f0dbacked Raptors64c38,457$24,612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,844.4919560%117 W · 78 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Raptors65c35,500$22,985 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,515.574,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d5c…4302backed Raptors53c33,516$17,909 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,607.3410952.3%57 W · 52 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Raptors66c30,585$20,034 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,551.059,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27cb…169ebacked Raptors65c30,000$19,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,499.8727424.5%67 W · 207 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8eb4…d892backed Kings34c27,646$9,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,399.813234.4%11 W · 21 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-26.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5877…d894backed Kings47c27,476$13,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,0009043.3%39 W · 51 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Kings34c27,202$9,236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,236.064,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Kings36c26,671$9,602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,601.5740446.8%189 W · 215 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Kings32c23,090$7,332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,331.963,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b9a…5f69backed Kings0c22,359$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.115213.8%20 W · 501 L+0.6wins0.00per pick4cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd3a…67cabacked Kings34c20,006$6,771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,770.7750838.2%194 W · 314 L+22.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+1.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9adf…55e8backed Kings61c19,553$12,024 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,023.8623747.7%113 W · 124 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf11…8399backed Kings36c19,500$6,970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,97037539.5%148 W · 227 L-1.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Kings20c19,277$3,944 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,943.781,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd568…a35abacked Kings55c18,264$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,0007758.4%45 W · 32 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8ddd…39eebacked Kings34c16,636$5,641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,641.322542.2%95 W · 130 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcad4…c108backed Kings35c15,520$5,421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,421.446651.5%34 W · 32 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Kings0c15,414$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.511,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7320…28b4backed Raptors65c15,000$9,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,25012657.1%72 W · 54 L+11.4wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+15.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xe653…c4a7backed Raptors67c14,957$10,021 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,935.922457.1%128 W · 96 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Raptors65c14,245$9,193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,051.1229748.1%143 W · 154 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Raptors64c13,209$8,508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,700.51,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb583…b0b3backed Raptors66c13,049$8,612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,436.6623256.9%132 W · 100 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x832d…d420backed Kings61c13,000$7,930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,929.976540%26 W · 39 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-17.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Raptors59c12,950$7,621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,329.45,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Raptors66c12,646$8,346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,299.6492753.5%496 W · 431 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Kings34c12,000$4,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,0801,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1052…53dabacked Kings34c11,596$3,961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,960.7110235.3%36 W · 66 L-9.7wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-28.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Raptors65c11,245$7,276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,969.082,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x99e4…e4c4backed Kings35c11,184$3,891 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,891.2714663.7%93 W · 53 L+11.6wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x62fb…4d60backed Kings36c11,000$3,995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,994.8935547.3%168 W · 187 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe194…cd47backed Raptors39c10,852$4,259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,593.921764.7%11 W · 6 L+3.2wins+0.19per pick46cpaid+71.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xb45d…a406backed Kings1c10,792$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.3827917.9%50 W · 229 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-44.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1e1…f855backed Kings35c10,531$3,646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,645.9928742.9%123 W · 164 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Kings0c10,461$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.078820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7517…0353backed Raptors62c10,435$6,474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,960.627865.8%183 W · 95 L+25.4wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+10.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Raptors58c10,000$5,811 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,188.821,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc330…1667backed Raptors68c9,890$6,725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,164.666253.2%33 W · 29 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Raptors66c8,788$5,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,987.881,15747.9%554 W · 603 L-19.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Raptors66c8,339$5,504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,835.3971547.7%341 W · 374 L-26.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7a79…a442backed Kings63c7,886$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0007062.9%44 W · 26 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Kings62c7,756$4,843 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,843.4859646.1%275 W · 321 L-16.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Raptors62c7,682$4,783 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,898.423,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfaba…51debacked Kings19c7,619$1,458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,45810947.7%52 W · 57 L-0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x209b…5706backed Raptors66c7,576$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,575.762352.2%12 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf51…4a30backed Raptors67c7,488$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,487.876746.4%356 W · 411 L-16.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x622e…07abbacked Raptors64c7,433$4,757 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,675.8117356.1%97 W · 76 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c28…7ba5backed Raptors65c7,301$4,740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,561.2313148.9%64 W · 67 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4132…a5a5backed Raptors69c7,272$5,039 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,232.8720851.4%107 W · 101 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c42…da3cbacked Kings35c7,099$2,485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,484.6514055.7%78 W · 62 L+11.5wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+13.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Raptors65c6,946$4,513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,432.882,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdddc…ced2backed Kings43c6,822$2,954 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,954.1112541.6%52 W · 73 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Kings36c6,800$2,467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,466.851,04841.1%431 W · 617 L+23.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x19a0…ac39backed Raptors51c6,787$3,438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,348.914751%75 W · 72 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Kings41c6,440$2,613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,612.7761939.6%245 W · 374 L-17.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-18.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Raptors64c6,000$3,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,16032039.4%126 W · 194 L-1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ec…e8f1backed Kings9c5,943$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515.324831.9%79 W · 169 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Raptors65c5,572$3,606 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,965.676,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6d7…9db4backed Kings33c5,467$1,828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,828.3330%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Raptors78c5,318$4,174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,144.0442640.4%172 W · 254 L+13.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Kings1c5,250$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.257211%7 W · 714 L-2.6wins0.00per pick1cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7467…e978backed Kings59c5,222$3,083 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,083.34955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d92…8676backed Kings62c5,150$3,193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,193.1617646%81 W · 95 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Raptors74c5,149$3,827 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,321.7673649.9%367 W · 369 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x169f…9dc8backed Raptors65c5,119$3,328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,791.791100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f7f…343fbacked Kings36c5,089$1,832 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,831.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x713d…53a9backed Kings36c5,000$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,80018151.4%93 W · 88 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6806…1429backed Kings0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101070%7 W · 3 L+2.8wins+0.28per pick42cpaid+27.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Kings10c5,000$523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$522.861,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ada…8550backed Raptors66c5,000$3,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,699.95771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.21per pick51cpaid+27.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4309…7456backed Kings34c4,998$1,713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,713.3461336.1%221 W · 392 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Kings32c4,966$1,592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,592.2181529.4%240 W · 575 L-37.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x725f…06c2backed Kings2c4,948$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.761,88837.3%704 W · 1,184 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8dcf…9021backed Kings36c4,908$1,767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,766.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4059…23dabacked Kings0c4,879$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.671234.9%6 W · 117 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick7cpaid+19.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2414…25a2backed Raptors65c4,876$3,170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,706.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86d5…6575backed Raptors65c4,718$3,067 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,651.46862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd267…9dc6backed Kings36c4,680$1,685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,684.88543.5%37 W · 48 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Raptors65c4,585$2,958 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,627.4872450.7%367 W · 357 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Raptors44c4,545$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,545.4541954.4%228 W · 191 L+1.9wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Kings43c4,467$1,923 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,923.442,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Raptors75c4,276$3,217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,058.571,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e29…9e66backed Kings31c4,186$1,291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,290.8650241.2%207 W · 295 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d20…1f58backed Raptors45c4,151$1,868 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,283.1742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-13.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked Kings34c4,000$1,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,36024252.5%127 W · 115 L+18.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+13.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Kings35c3,982$1,394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,393.742,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.