NBA · resolved market
Spread: Raptors (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c328a5a0f33787677d74443d63165e21242a387994bd37ec38d5c1a6384289f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Raptorsof Raptors, Kings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,091
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,614
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,091 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Kings | 54c | 12,776$6,873 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,873.1 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae8…c2a8backed Raptors | 46c | 8,400$3,864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,536 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | +12.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf35…b5eabacked Raptors | 48c | 6,765$3,247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,517.98 | 132 | 39.4%52 W · 80 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7973…34d4backed Raptors | 46c | 5,209$2,396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,812.7 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -6.4wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc617…a854backed Kings | 52c | 3,373$1,754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,754 | 426 | 48.1%205 W · 221 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Kings | 50c | 2,319$1,157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,157.15 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Raptors | 50c | 2,247$1,124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,123.3 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4278…0e92backed Kings | 52c | 2,100$1,092 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,092 | 416 | 52.2%217 W · 199 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Kings | 54c | 1,398$755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$755.1 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Kings | 4c | 1,344$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.44 | 448 | 21.4%96 W · 352 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Kings | 54c | 693.49$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.58 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Raptors | 73c | 300$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Raptors | 45c | 146.67$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.48 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Raptors | 46c | 139.25$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.19 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…0f30backed Kings | 54c | 133.61$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3449…abdfbacked Kings | 54c | 130.51$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.47 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Raptors | 46c | 124.94$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.09 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa90…d716backed Raptors | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e21…c6f4backed Raptors | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 132 | 65.2%86 W · 46 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Raptors | 46c | 87.9$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.47 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe97…89e1backed Raptors | 49c | 87.55$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.65 | 282 | 51.8%146 W · 136 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…5685backed Kings | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4161…272dbacked Kings | 54c | 72.94$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.39 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Kings | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Raptors | 59c | 46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 193 | 50.3%97 W · 96 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Kings | 53c | 42.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Raptors | 48c | 40.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Kings | 54c | 38.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Kings | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 348 | 49.7%173 W · 175 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec1…dd29backed Kings | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 225 | 56.9%128 W · 97 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Kings | 54c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Raptors (-6.5)this page
- Malik Monk: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Precious Achiuwa: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Raptors vs. KingsRaptors won
- Raptors vs. Kings: 1H MoneylineKings won
- Raptors vs. Kings: 1H O/U 108.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Kings: O/U 223.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Kings: O/U 224.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Kings: O/U 225.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Kings: O/U 226.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Kings: O/U 227.5Over won
- Sandro Mamukelashvili: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Spread: Raptors (-3.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-4.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-5.5)Raptors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.