NBA · resolved market
Raptors vs. Kings: O/U 227.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4cbf462efdbf0818cf66bfac864da0490226ac345d6eba5708bbcd9ff06f30d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,976
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,966
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,976 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc44f…d49fbacked Over | 47c | 8,675$4,077 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,597.75 | 483 | 52%251 W · 232 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9f…e125backed Under | 49c | 7,651$3,749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,749.09 | 112 | 52.7%59 W · 53 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 55c | 5,752$3,158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,157.71 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d78…29a5backed Over | 45c | 5,728$2,578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,150.38 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56be…57eebacked Over | 54c | 2,778$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,277.78 | 211 | 43.1%91 W · 120 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 51c | 2,733$1,393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,339.31 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 53c | 2,270$1,203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,203.12 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09ad…819ebacked Under | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 142 | 54.9%78 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 53c | 1,957$1,037 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,037.21 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…d953backed Over | 54c | 1,500$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690 | 165 | 50.9%84 W · 81 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca5…73bcbacked Under | 54c | 1,415$764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$764 | 404 | 51.5%208 W · 196 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Over | 54c | 895$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.7 | 956 | 51.5%492 W · 464 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Over | 47c | 405$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.65 | 401 | 46.9%188 W · 213 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc688…5987backed Under | 53c | 349.34$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.15 | 323 | 46.4%150 W · 173 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d59…31dcbacked Under | 69c | 300$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8c…686fbacked Under | 17c | 299.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 244 | 9.4%23 W · 221 L | -27.5wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xefa5…3d34backed Under | 54c | 275.93$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Under | 52c | 265.08$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.84 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Under | 50c | 250.2$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.1 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 312 | 49.4%154 W · 158 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa05…69e3backed Under | 20c | 199.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 47c | 195.96$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.16 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Over | 78c | 170$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.7 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddc4…0270backed Under | 55c | 70.6$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.83 | 277 | 45.8%127 W · 150 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 55c | 54.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 246 | 45.9%113 W · 133 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9460…97d5backed Over | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc212…18b9backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Under | 53c | 29.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85fb…462fbacked Under | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f30…a479backed Under | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b98…e5d1backed Under | 55c | 18.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 81 | 58%47 W · 34 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Raptors vs. Kings: O/U 227.5this page
- Malik Monk: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Precious Achiuwa: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Raptors vs. KingsRaptors won
- Raptors vs. Kings: 1H MoneylineKings won
- Raptors vs. Kings: 1H O/U 108.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Kings: O/U 223.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Kings: O/U 224.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Kings: O/U 225.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Kings: O/U 226.5Over won
- Sandro Mamukelashvili: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Spread: Raptors (-3.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-4.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-5.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-6.5)Raptors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.