TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xaa05…69e3

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
108
Categories scored
18
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: NHL, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category NHL at 56 out of 100; worst Premier League at 40.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 13, 2026, EDT3551.4%18 W · 17 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+13.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 35 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Knicks vs. Spursbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+455.6%+$81.99
Spurs vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$108Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$92
Pacers vs. Lakersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$13
Clippers vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+525%+$83.99
Mavericks vs. Timberwolvesbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$12.8
Cavaliers vs. Nuggets: O/U 240.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST+100%+$25
Pistons vs. Warriorsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$21
Spread: Rockets (-2.5)backed Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST+117.4%+$18.9
Spread: Lakers (-1.5)backed Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST+66.7%+$40
Magic vs. Cavaliers: O/U 224.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$51
Nets vs. Clippers: O/U 211.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST+100%+$50
Raptors vs. Kings: O/U 227.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Raptors vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+69.5%+$41
Lakers vs. Trail Blazersbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST+29.9%+$23
Spread: Clippers (-11.5)backed Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$58
Hornets vs. Clippersbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+81.8%+$45
Lakers vs. Kingsbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$46
Nets vs. Mavericks: O/U 221.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$18.8
Grizzlies vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+63.9%+$7.8
Hornets vs. Bucksbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+51.5%+$6.8
Trail Blazers vs. Pelicansbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+100%+$10
Magic vs. Bullsbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$12.6
Nuggets vs. Cavaliersbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Hawks vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$14.4
Nets vs. Wizardsbacked Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$10.4
Showing 25 of 35 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST1866.7%12 W · 6 L+2.5wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+20.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
NHL — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Bruins vs. Canucks: O/U 6.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST+51.5%+$34
Wild vs. Kings: O/U 6.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$14.1
Golden Knights vs. Bluesbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$11.4
Predators vs. Krakenbacked Kraken · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST+96.1%+$9.8
Red Wings vs. Penguinsbacked Penguins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+85.2%+$9.2
Lightning vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10.8
Jets vs. Maple Leafsbacked Maple Leafs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+78.6%+$8.8
Utah vs. Islandersbacked Islanders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10.2
Capitals vs. Senatorsbacked Senators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+78.6%+$8.8
Jets vs. Red Wingsbacked Red Wings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+85.2%+$9.2
Lightning vs. Ducksbacked Lightning · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+75.4%+$8.6
Rangers vs. Capitalsbacked Capitals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+70.9%+$8.3
Flyers vs. Canucksbacked Flyers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+81.8%+$9
Islanders vs. Blackhawksbacked Islanders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+78.6%+$8.8
Canadiens vs. Panthersbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$10.8
Hurricanes vs. Penguinsbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$11
Sabres vs. Bluesbacked Sabres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+92.3%+$9.6
Oilers vs. Jetsbacked Oilers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+88.7%+$14.1
All 18 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Jan 25, 2026, EST1346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Florida Atlantic Owls vs. South Florida Bullsbacked Florida Atlantic Owls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$102
Florida Atlantic Owls vs. South Florida Bulls: O/U 167.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$189Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+85.5%+$161.3
CSUN Matadors vs. Hawaii Rainbow Warriors: O/U 157.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+66.7%+$80
Utah State Aggies vs. Colorado State Ramsbacked Colorado State Rams · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Kennesaw State Owls vs. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs: O/U 144.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks vs. Appalachian State Mountaineers: O/U 145.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST+108.3%+$52
Sacramento State Hornets vs. Idaho Vandals: O/U 160.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks vs. Marshall Thundering Herd: O/U 160.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$50
San Diego State Aztecs vs. Grand Canyon Antelopes: O/U 143.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+277.4%+$146.98
Oregon State Beavers vs. Saint Mary's Gaels: O/U 141.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+156.4%+$60.98
Saint Joseph's Hawks vs. Richmond Spidersbacked Richmond Spiders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$17
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Iowa Hawkeyesbacked Iowa Hawkeyes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$15.1
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Iowa Hawkeyes: O/U 145.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+100%+$25
All 13 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 15, 2026, EDT837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-47.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Jan 25, 2026, EST825%2 W · 6 L-2.9wins-0.36per pick61cpaid-60.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
Premier League — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Jan 25, 2026, EST425%1 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.35per pick60cpaid-67.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Australian A League Inactivelast resolved Jan 24, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick66cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Australian A League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Australian A League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Serie A Inactivelast resolved Jan 25, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-51.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Serie A — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Jan 11, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick72cpaid-58.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Jan 26, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+595.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Weather — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Mar 6, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Asian League Inactivelast resolved Jan 9, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Asian League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-36.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.85per pick15cpaid+566.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Grok 4.20 released by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+566.7%+$85
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Seahawks vs. 49ersbacked Seahawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST+88.7%+$9.59
All 1 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Jan 2, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+87.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
College Football — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Ole Miss vs. Georgiabacked Ole Miss · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST+87.4%+$65.3
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Jan 16, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Lille OSC: O/U 4.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+66.7%+$25
All 1 picks, newest first.
Poker Inactivelast resolved Jan 17, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Poker — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Poker, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Nik Airball vs Mariano: Higher winnings at Hustler Casino on Friday?backed Mariano · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$25.67
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.