Premier League · resolved market
Aston Villa FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5badc869134147ce594ce914529a2d132512fce2c717ca8ab02f962e0d4b8160
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,015
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,630
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,015 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 24c | 16,027$3,804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,222.97 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75dd…171dbacked Under | 79c | 9,645$7,597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,596.58 | 48 | 81.3%39 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc317…5b24backed Under | 75c | 8,411$6,295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,294.8 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 23c | 4,562$1,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,526.3 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0588…8f18backed Under | 67c | 4,312$2,882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,881.7 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 44cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Under | 78c | 2,288$1,785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,785 | 157 | 72%113 W · 44 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked Over | 66c | 1,887$1,245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$641.6 | 143 | 42.7%61 W · 82 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 36c | 1,414$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.43 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86b6…2c52backed Under | 1c | 1,369$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dea…3792backed Over | 66c | 1,210$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.11 | 167 | 53.3%89 W · 78 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 34c | 1,095$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$723 | 1,004 | 46.3%465 W · 539 L | +25.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 36c | 732.47$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.7 | 1,224 | 40%490 W · 734 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 39c | 712.4$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.9 | 241 | 58.1%140 W · 101 L | +34.1wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed Over | 60c | 500$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f89…b87ebacked Under | 3c | 427.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a94…0f59backed Under | 72c | 417.77$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 76cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 29c | 324.07$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.09 | 607 | 28%170 W · 437 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bae…e6c5backed Over | 31c | 322.15$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.6 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1d…9fe1backed Under | 72c | 320$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc53e…a45cbacked Over | 25c | 320$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.6 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.22per pick | 42cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 28c | 300$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216 | 391 | 56%219 W · 172 L | +12.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc44…3b40backed Over | 22c | 300$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 64c | 234.44$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.84 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 63c | 184.13$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.13 | 152 | 63.2%96 W · 56 L | -8.1wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 55c | 170$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.8 | 252 | 56%141 W · 111 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3103…ea70backed Under | 41c | 169.91$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.66 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b46…121dbacked Under | 71c | 138.27$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.17 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca49…daddbacked Under | 71c | 135.8$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.42 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Over | 30c | 133.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.33 | 232 | 20.7%48 W · 184 L | -12.5wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 31c | 129.03$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.03 | 353 | 28.6%101 W · 252 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e2…7b4ebacked Over | 41c | 124.39$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed Over | 49c | 111$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.61 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | +7.7wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedc6…314abacked Under | 71c | 109.86$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a90…e630backed Over | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.45 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06d5…0417backed Over | 59c | 101.69$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.69 | 161 | 42.9%69 W · 92 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d29…5111backed Under | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde2d…abbabacked Over | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 265 | 48.3%128 W · 137 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 75c | 95.25$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.18 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1985…8cbdbacked Under | 45c | 94.08$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0068…1b85backed Over | 59c | 92.22$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.88 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0499…7066backed Over | 46c | 63.83$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.59 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa05…69e3backed Under | 75c | 60$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.9wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…bc8dbacked Over | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked Over | 29c | 55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.05 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x22c7…f3b7backed Over | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Under | 73c | 51.05$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.27 | 170 | 53.5%91 W · 79 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d45…6b5cbacked Over | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.29per pick | 48cpaid | +77.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Under | 70c | 49.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.09 | 178 | 49.4%88 W · 90 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34cd…9675backed Under | 62c | 48.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 59c | 47.46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.46 | 408 | 41.9%171 W · 237 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9db0…0f6abacked Under | 71c | 46.96$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.34 | 157 | 40.8%64 W · 93 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Over | 29c | 46.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.27 | 396 | 51.5%204 W · 192 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03c4…b832backed Under | 65c | 38.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 68c | 37.77$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 584 | 45.9%268 W · 316 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Over | 45c | 35.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.53 | 175 | 49.1%86 W · 89 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab72…eae9backed Under | 38c | 34.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 33c | 33.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.47 | 891 | 52.9%471 W · 420 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb545…6e0abacked Over | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0633…355abacked Over | 65c | 29.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d36…3948backed Under | 65c | 26.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1711…0528backed Under | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 76cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa7…2e3cbacked Under | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 357 | 43.1%154 W · 203 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…22c4backed Under | 62c | 22.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 85 | 54.1%46 W · 39 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f4…30d0backed Over | 47c | 21.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72e6…7bf4backed Over | 61c | 19.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed Over | 61c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 148 | 45.9%68 W · 80 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Aston Villa FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Aston Villa FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Aston Villa FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Aston Villa FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Aston Villa FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5)Aston Villa FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.