Premier League · resolved market
Aston Villa FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9da8ef1dfdfa7b89ef003c43a85372f75601bb8622cfd445d463cdb3b698643a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,128
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,499
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,128 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 27c | 6,689$1,813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,813.35 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb0…5012backed Under | 52c | 3,027$1,564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,463.71 | 197 | 29.4%58 W · 139 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 9c | 2,954$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.85 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0588…8f18backed Under | 66c | 2,626$1,742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$884.22 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 44cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 12c | 2,602$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.88 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed Under | 57c | 1,650$941 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$708.71 | 196 | 52%102 W · 94 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a8…2927backed Over | 19c | 1,403$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.61 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed Under | 3c | 1,159$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,123.05 | 74 | 29.7%22 W · 52 L | +12.1wins | +0.16per pick | 13cpaid | +125%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb1…984ebacked Over | 25c | 519.99$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.94 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 31c | 428.45$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.18 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 4c | 397.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 741 | 56.8%421 W · 320 L | +46.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…b90bbacked Under | 41c | 380$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.2 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 33c | 343.57$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.38 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 67c | 283.66$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.46 | 1,004 | 46.3%465 W · 539 L | +25.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bab…50aabacked Under | 65c | 275.47$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.14 | 83 | 65.1%54 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…bc8dbacked Over | 24c | 250$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc44…3b40backed Over | 12c | 209$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a7…613abacked Under | 55c | 180$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca49…daddbacked Under | 78c | 177.55$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Over | 17c | 164.43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.83 | 117 | 12%14 W · 103 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86b6…2c52backed Over | 19c | 156.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.17 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab72…eae9backed Under | 65c | 144.13$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.13 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c81…4e8dbacked Over | 17c | 115.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 30c | 110.54$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 1,272 | 50.4%641 W · 631 L | -53.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x706c…7752backed Over | 13c | 80.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Over | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 232 | 20.7%48 W · 184 L | -12.5wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a26…7300backed Over | 49c | 71.57$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 123 | 42.3%52 W · 71 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 45c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 252 | 56%141 W · 111 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 25c | 60.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 357 | 43.1%154 W · 203 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22c7…f3b7backed Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d64…5c93backed Under | 72c | 57.18$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7658…28bcbacked Under | 57c | 52.87$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.87 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 265 | 48.3%128 W · 137 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 50c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 198 | 53%105 W · 93 L | +12.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa852…d55dbacked Over | 36c | 40.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06d5…0417backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 161 | 42.9%69 W · 92 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f89…b87ebacked Over | 44c | 37.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a1…1c72backed Over | 43c | 34.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c85…94a4backed Over | 32c | 32.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x259e…b405backed Under | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0499…7066backed Over | 50c | 26.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Aston Villa FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Aston Villa FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Aston Villa FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Aston Villa FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Aston Villa FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5)Aston Villa FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.