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NBA · resolved market

Magic vs. Bulls

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Bullsof Magic, Bulls
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,612,360
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,717,755

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,612,360 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,558 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x16b2…a881backed Bulls38c96,746$36,661 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60,085.082,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b6c…6305backed Bulls37c90,428$33,143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57,285.797941.8%33 W · 46 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+20.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b9c…57b3backed Magic67c67,289$45,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45,249.671050%5 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-20.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Magic54c50,664$27,497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,496.841,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc946…1825backed Bulls36c50,000$18,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,999.965259.6%31 W · 21 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+16.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x699f…d5c6backed Magic56c43,124$24,236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,235.7936950.1%185 W · 184 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6d0…9391backed Magic63c32,706$20,604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,603.9627247.1%128 W · 144 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a3b…10eebacked Bulls38c30,519$11,488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,030.173046.7%14 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Magic62c30,511$18,833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,833.435,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4a3…0848backed Bulls52c29,860$15,521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,338.727149.3%35 W · 36 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Magic63c25,995$16,479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,478.981,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c16…09cbbacked Magic63c22,562$14,214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,214.0913248.5%64 W · 68 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06c0…e618backed Bulls37c19,097$7,066 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,031.313455.2%74 W · 60 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Bulls38c16,355$6,266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,088.214,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Bulls44c15,775$7,015 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,760.521,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Bulls58c15,330$8,903 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,426.461,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed Magic63c15,188$9,529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,528.7534062.1%211 W · 129 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Bulls36c15,000$5,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,599.981,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Bulls37c12,409$4,634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,775.0836741.4%152 W · 215 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24d8…e8a8backed Bulls41c11,918$4,829 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,089.5813260.6%80 W · 52 L+14.0wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+17.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Magic63c11,219$7,088 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,088.061,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Magic64c11,219$7,157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,156.582,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc58d…9373backed Magic61c10,881$6,637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,637.4128241.1%116 W · 166 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b8e…5c3cbacked Magic62c10,454$6,506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,505.8244459.7%265 W · 179 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe258…2330backed Magic64c10,013$6,408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,408.3223245.3%105 W · 127 L+0.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bf6…22a9backed Bulls31c10,000$3,123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,877.04911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick26cpaid-64.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x83ab…3d56backed Bulls36c10,000$3,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,399.979343%40 W · 53 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe734…8f6abacked Bulls36c10,000$3,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,399.9519150.8%97 W · 94 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Magic63c9,873$6,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,219.8272450.7%367 W · 357 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdefe…5432backed Magic64c9,450$6,048 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,0487468.9%51 W · 23 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d18…4972backed Magic62c9,035$5,602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,601.9316339.3%64 W · 99 L-10.2wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-15.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Magic1c8,290$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.91,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Magic48c8,000$3,830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,829.6738434.9%134 W · 250 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+12.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa849…c825backed Magic52c8,000$4,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,179.9716641%68 W · 98 L-12.9wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-17.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Magic38c7,985$3,044 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,043.783,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Bulls32c7,154$2,317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,836.631,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Magic64c6,953$4,416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,415.512,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Magic63c6,925$4,363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,362.7547751.8%247 W · 230 L+1.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Bulls49c6,528$3,181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,346.71,09640.9%448 W · 648 L+34.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Bulls39c6,047$2,358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,688.6434456.7%195 W · 149 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Magic62c6,046$3,729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,728.689,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2e4…bc51backed Magic52c5,769$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00021944.7%98 W · 121 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdff3…70e4backed Magic63c5,420$3,415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,414.6837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick57cpaid-45.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x414b…73bcbacked Bulls38c5,263$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,263.1614753.1%78 W · 69 L+8.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf7bb…a9f7backed Bulls39c5,234$2,063 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,171.273844.7%17 W · 21 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick48cpaid+15.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Magic63c5,000$3,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,1504,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Bulls38c5,000$1,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,079.981,04841.1%431 W · 617 L+23.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c10…8977backed Bulls36c5,000$1,820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,179.9462347.7%297 W · 326 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1161…7897backed Bulls37c4,500$1,665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,834.99666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+41.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xadcb…337bbacked Magic64c4,169$2,668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,668.15333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-45.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6d1…7aa1backed Magic63c4,100$2,583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5831070%7 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.20per pick50cpaid+91.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe948…ff23backed Bulls36c4,000$1,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,559.9717250%86 W · 86 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Bulls34c3,751$1,289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,462.178,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd1e…ff14backed Magic63c3,509$2,211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,210.6516370.6%115 W · 48 L+7.0wins+0.04per pick66cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Bulls61c3,460$2,109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,350.433,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedb1…819ebacked Magic64c3,381$2,164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,16415855.7%88 W · 70 L-9.8wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1461…30a1backed Magic63c3,362$2,115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,114.725546.7%119 W · 136 L-7.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a0c…9db8backed Bulls37c3,355$1,233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,122.3421538.1%82 W · 133 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+20.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Bulls38c3,194$1,211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,983.295,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a22…c3b5backed Bulls28c3,130$890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,240.4316130.4%49 W · 112 L-6.8wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3505…f7a3backed Magic64c3,125$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0007455.4%41 W · 33 L-5.1wins-0.07per pick62cpaid-13.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2a09…db1cbacked Magic64c3,125$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0003452.9%18 W · 16 L-3.6wins-0.11per pick64cpaid-16.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Magic17c3,070$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535.281529.4%240 W · 575 L-37.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4137…586cbacked Magic62c3,000$1,860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,86047043.8%206 W · 264 L-22.2wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9575…5030backed Bulls37c3,000$1,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,889.97633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Bulls36c2,890$1,046 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,843.281,16449.6%577 W · 587 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8692…f1bcbacked Magic63c2,800$1,764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7641233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick41cpaid+23.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdddc…ced2backed Bulls54c2,783$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,282.9112541.6%52 W · 73 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x66c9…2e68backed Bulls77c2,612$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$611.766758.2%39 W · 28 L-4.6wins-0.07per pick65cpaid-11.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x89f3…dfffbacked Bulls29c2,600$759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,841.2534227.2%93 W · 249 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-17.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9534…1fe8backed Magic63c2,540$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,60026247.7%125 W · 137 L+14.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x41b4…de82backed Bulls36c2,500$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,60058740%235 W · 352 L+24.3wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb080…5eddbacked Magic64c2,448$1,567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,566.728540%34 W · 51 L-7.5wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-17.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x95cd…335cbacked Magic63c2,389$1,505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,504.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x626f…cdfabacked Bulls37c2,380$881 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,499.43565.7%23 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Bulls51c2,363$1,209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,154.3661939.6%245 W · 374 L-17.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-18.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Bulls36c2,353$847 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,505.9285147.5%404 W · 447 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ec…e8f1backed Bulls37c2,162$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,362.1624831.9%79 W · 169 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x803a…0bedbacked Magic62c2,159$1,339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,338.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5729…49efbacked Bulls38c2,148$816 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,331.782100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+138%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Bulls40c2,102$837 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,264.732,90238.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L-51.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x189e…2113backed Magic63c2,100$1,323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3231266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+30.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x82a0…14b3backed Magic52c2,079$1,086 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,085.7516444.5%73 W · 91 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Magic64c2,037$1,303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,302.942,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf33…261fbacked Magic5c2,020$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10017420.1%35 W · 139 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x51ad…5e56backed Magic33c2,017$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66031954.5%174 W · 145 L+10.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe49…9c28backed Magic64c2,013$1,288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,288.139757.7%56 W · 41 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99e4…e4c4backed Magic64c2,000$1,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,28014663.7%93 W · 53 L+11.6wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0ed4…4547backed Magic64c2,000$1,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,28019351.8%100 W · 93 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-1.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Bulls36c2,000$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,28038649.7%192 W · 194 L+10.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff5b…c583backed Bulls37c2,000$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,259.9920847.6%99 W · 109 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f57…ccedbacked Magic66c1,988$1,312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,311.8430%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa9d1…4660backed Magic7c1,955$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.8239018.2%71 W · 319 L+27.6wins+0.07per pick11cpaid+62.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Magic63c1,943$1,224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,224.096,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3435…1913backed Bulls39c1,878$732 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,145.344942.9%21 W · 28 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a10…543cbacked Magic59c1,860$1,097 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,097.192962.1%18 W · 11 L+3.5wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+21.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x94f1…b9e7backed Magic76c1,857$1,415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,414.9726659%157 W · 109 L+12.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x143e…b821backed Bulls36c1,800$648 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1521758.8%10 W · 7 L+3.2wins+0.19per pick40cpaid+127.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6ae5…40e1backed Bulls39c1,794$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,094.34450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+53.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Magic2c1,757$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.078820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.