NBA · resolved market

Magic vs. Bulls: O/U 237.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x151fe40aa59f05748a6eb3f55007408bfc45aa0f8eb69d69ebffaf6a57a1bc49

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Jan 3, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $19,749
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $20,385

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,749 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x1455…e5cdbacked Under	54c	9,131$4,907 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,223.75	1,908	54.5%1,040 W · 868 L	+53.7wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Over	52c	2,496$1,294 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,293.96	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Under	47c	2,353$1,106 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,246.12	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Under	47c	1,297$609 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$688.5	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7923…d78abacked Over	45c	630$284 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$283.5	15	66.7%10 W · 5 L	+3.2wins	+0.21per pick	46cpaid	+38.3%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x17be…a643backed Under	54c	520$281 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$239.2	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Over	46c	495.4$228 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$227.88	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf93f…f94bbacked Over	40c	287.95$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.18	166	33.7%56 W · 110 L	-11.6wins	-0.07per pick	41cpaid	-26.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Under	60c	250$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100	851	47.5%404 W · 447 L	-7.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15d5…ef7bbacked Over	38c	199.57$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.49	1,198	38.8%465 W · 733 L	+11.6wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fbd…3d15backed Over	45c	189.81$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.41	762	47.1%359 W · 403 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Over	35c	180.92$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.32	1,911	45.4%868 W · 1,043 L	+22.1wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7289…8d16backed Under	62c	158$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60	133	54.1%72 W · 61 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45c3…42f9backed Under	65c	154$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54	168	52.4%88 W · 80 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	48c	123.54$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.9	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over	46c	122.69$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.42	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5608…ff5bbacked Under	55c	110$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.5	15	60%9 W · 6 L	+1.3wins	+0.09per pick	51cpaid	+11%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Over	48c	100$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Under	61c	65.57$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.57	2,602	50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L	-20.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77c4…d390backed Under	62c	63.03$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.08	207	62.3%129 W · 78 L	+6.1wins	+0.03per pick	59cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe403…3d50backed Over	39c	49.99$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.5	547	47.5%260 W · 287 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over	38c	46.42$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.81	1,786	53.2%950 W · 836 L	+52.7wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Over	43c	33.6$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.45	2,902	38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L	-51.9wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xedb5…ce8ebacked Under	65c	30.77$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.77	217	56.7%123 W · 94 L	+6.2wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x709c…7347backed Under	56c	24.11$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.61	54	53.7%29 W · 25 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x82be…627bbacked Under	56c	23.04$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.14	50	50%25 W · 25 L	-2.0wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f19…87dabacked Under	56c	22.68$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.98	60	53.3%32 W · 28 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7028…8512backed Under	56c	22.5$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.9	59	49.2%29 W · 30 L	-2.6wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x570b…1263backed Under	56c	22.5$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.9	55	50.9%28 W · 27 L	-1.4wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7602…2775backed Over	54c	22.42$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.11	506	48%243 W · 263 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf69b…617fbacked Under	56c	22.32$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.82	48	52.1%25 W · 23 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c9b…ae51backed Under	56c	22.32$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.82	59	52.5%31 W · 28 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x699a…38febacked Under	56c	21.96$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.66	58	51.7%30 W · 28 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9105…1ae2backed Under	56c	21.25$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.35	63	49.2%31 W · 32 L	-2.6wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd100…0f55backed Under	56c	21.07$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.27	54	50%27 W · 27 L	-2.0wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x254f…2fb8backed Under	56c	20.18$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.88	78	47.4%37 W · 41 L	-4.8wins	-0.06per pick	54cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Under	57c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.6	1,695	44.7%758 W · 937 L	-30.4wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8c8…a2aabacked Under	56c	19.29$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.49	50	48%24 W · 26 L	-2.3wins	-0.05per pick	53cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Magic vs. Bulls: O/U 237.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event