NBA · resolved market

Spread: Magic (-5.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3aef8adfbbcdff2353331c61410e20f9578c9688329b6c4b6593ebf0f52286bc

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Bullsof Magic, Bulls
Resolved: Jan 3, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $42,030
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $43,543

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,030 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xead0…f3babacked Bulls	52c	10,000$5,200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,799.97	1,124	48.6%546 W · 578 L	+13.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7805…b438backed Magic	48c	9,500$4,560 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,560	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.1wins	-0.27per pick	52cpaid	-61.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Magic	46c	8,751$4,064 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,063.62	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Magic	48c	7,670$3,681 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,681.5	2,091	47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L	-56.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x83ab…3d56backed Bulls	52c	6,000$3,120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,880	93	43%40 W · 53 L	-4.7wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x478f…f5d9backed Bulls	54c	5,556$3,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,555.56	220	35.5%78 W · 142 L	-11.5wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1b5e…83f8backed Bulls	53c	3,197$1,694 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,502.59	116	56.9%66 W · 50 L	+10.6wins	+0.09per pick	48cpaid	+17%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0xe948…ff23backed Bulls	52c	3,000$1,560 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,440	172	50%86 W · 86 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc63…f1c7backed Bulls	52c	2,800$1,456 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,344	506	53.2%269 W · 237 L	+8.7wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Magic	47c	2,212$1,042 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,042.15	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Bulls	46c	1,236$569 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$666.27	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Bulls	52c	1,010$525 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$484.82	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2bd5…26ccbacked Bulls	52c	1,000$522 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$478.61	516	51%263 W · 253 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Bulls	52c	1,000$520 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$480	877	50.2%440 W · 437 L	-19.7wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0940…3640backed Magic	48c	956.25$459 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$459	87	48.3%42 W · 45 L	-4.0wins	-0.05per pick	53cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Magic	48c	837$402 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$401.76	1,908	54.5%1,040 W · 868 L	+53.7wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Magic	48c	815$391 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$391.2	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Bulls	52c	743.06$386 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$356.72	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3de6…405cbacked Magic	48c	591.67$284 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$284	434	53.2%231 W · 203 L	+6.7wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xce26…8e06backed Bulls	54c	560$302 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$257.6	910	50.9%463 W · 447 L	+11.5wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e68…3215backed Bulls	53c	539.62$286 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$253.62	117	55.6%65 W · 52 L	+3.5wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa07d…9871backed Bulls	53c	500$265 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$235	228	46.1%105 W · 123 L	-6.0wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Magic	48c	416.67$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	1,157	47.9%554 W · 603 L	-19.9wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa61f…7993backed Bulls	52c	400$208 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$192	617	47.8%295 W · 322 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Magic	47c	385.13$182 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$182.12	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Magic	48c	224$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.24	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0729…0fa3backed Bulls	49c	200$97 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$103	72	40.3%29 W · 43 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	38cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Magic	47c	188.74$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.71	2,153	51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L	+76.7wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Magic	48c	129.5$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.02	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Bulls	52c	113.33$59 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.4	851	47.5%404 W · 447 L	-7.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fbd…3d15backed Magic	46c	111.99$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.52	762	47.1%359 W · 403 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2a31…152cbacked Bulls	53c	109.38$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.41	484	51.2%248 W · 236 L	+4.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7705…a442backed Magic	48c	104.17$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	118	40.7%48 W · 70 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Magic	49c	101.23$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.77	1,695	44.7%758 W · 937 L	-30.4wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Magic	48c	100$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	2,657	49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L	+42.1wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Magic	52c	99.52$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.75	2,208	46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L	+42.7wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84b8…d83abacked Magic	48c	83.33$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-3.2wins	-0.27per pick	52cpaid	-50.1%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Bulls	54c	74.07$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.07	2,602	50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L	-20.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Magic	48c	64.05$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.74	1,197	47.5%569 W · 628 L	-32.0wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7eb3…0710backed Bulls	54c	55.56$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.56	139	57.6%80 W · 59 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	59cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Magic	44c	55.18$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.48	888	45.7%406 W · 482 L	-12.2wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Magic	47c	50.72$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.84	3,341	53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L	+108.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb781…0adcbacked Bulls	53c	47.17$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.17	50	52%26 W · 24 L	-2.0wins	-0.04per pick	56cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x89a4…5f78backed Bulls	53c	42.55$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	100	53%53 W · 47 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fb4…8830backed Magic	48c	41.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	202	41.1%83 W · 119 L	-5.0wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x733e…c558backed Bulls	52c	38.46$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.46	37	48.6%18 W · 19 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d5f…7e6fbacked Bulls	53c	37.74$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.74	324	50%162 W · 162 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x756d…04a9backed Bulls	49c	36.73$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.73	73	43.8%32 W · 41 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Magic	46c	31.4$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.44	2,902	38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L	-51.9wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Magic	51c	29$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.92	1,786	53.2%950 W · 836 L	+52.7wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x973e…22ebbacked Bulls	53c	26.42$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.42	599	48.4%290 W · 309 L	-8.2wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d3f…7fecbacked Magic	48c	24.48$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.75	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	-2.8wins	-0.20per pick	48cpaid	-43.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x170c…7fe3backed Bulls	54c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.2	380	48.7%185 W · 195 L	-12.0wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Bulls	79c	15$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.15	1,055	49.9%526 W · 529 L	+29.7wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Magic (-5.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event