NBA · resolved market
Magic vs. Bulls: O/U 235.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe00848e399884eaac3cbe60b47c17a0d7d23dc1a82e8f710df23b186b4fb5bc4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,490
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,803
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,490 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 50c | 14,812$7,472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,340.54 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 47c | 11,021$5,178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,177.67 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa59f…d53cbacked Over | 51c | 7,941$4,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,050 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01b4…372ebacked Over | 2c | 4,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 298 | 10.4%31 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.08per pick | 3cpaid | +230.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…4660backed Over | 5c | 3,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 390 | 18.2%71 W · 319 L | +27.6wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 46c | 1,820$834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$834.11 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 45c | 1,606$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725.09 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed Under | 57c | 1,319$752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.33 | 502 | 41.2%207 W · 295 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Over | 43c | 1,061$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.32 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 63c | 572.52$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.46 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 49c | 548.4$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.42 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…fe28backed Over | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 46 | 2.2%1 W · 45 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked Over | 6c | 500$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 85 | 11.8%10 W · 75 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 43c | 422.09$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.5 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 50c | 421.29$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.65 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Over | 46c | 301.44$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 258 | 47.3%122 W · 136 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 51c | 277.06$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.3 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 45c | 252$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.4 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 49c | 245.33$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.12 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Over | 50c | 210$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 679 | 21.4%145 W · 534 L | +32.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x042a…7f4cbacked Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…26f0backed Over | 15c | 199.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 95 | 15.8%15 W · 80 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 48c | 161.81$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.82 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Over | 46c | 160$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.8 | 1,028 | 48.5%499 W · 529 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 56c | 126.01$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.89 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5bc…a233backed Under | 50c | 116.04$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.02 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Under | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.5 | 230 | 47.4%109 W · 121 L | +19.2wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Under | 54c | 73$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.56 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over | 46c | 72$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 876 | 47.5%416 W · 460 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Over | 45c | 64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 394 | 49.2%194 W · 200 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31ce…88cdbacked Over | 48c | 59.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 245 | 52.7%129 W · 116 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Under | 54c | 43.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.01 | 506 | 48%243 W · 263 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3920…23e7backed Under | 55c | 36.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 304 | 52.6%160 W · 144 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…a9a3backed Under | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over | 43c | 34.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Under | 66c | 29.29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 1,096 | 40.9%448 W · 648 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Over | 58c | 22.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 432 | 46.1%199 W · 233 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1540…04e9backed Under | 51c | 21.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 51 | 68.6%35 W · 16 L | +8.1wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d593backed Under | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 879 | 50.6%445 W · 434 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4546…c148backed Under | 51c | 19.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -3.5wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9388…7750backed Over | 72c | 16.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.44per pick | 69cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Magic vs. Bulls: O/U 235.5this page
- 1H Spread: Magic (-2.5)Bulls won
- Magic vs. BullsBulls won
- Magic vs. Bulls: O/U 232.5Over won
- Magic vs. Bulls: O/U 233.5Over won
- Magic vs. Bulls: O/U 234.5Over won
- Magic vs. Bulls: O/U 236.5Under won
- Magic vs. Bulls: O/U 237.5Under won
- Spread: Magic (-4.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Magic (-5.5)Bulls won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.