TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Magic vs. Bulls: O/U 235.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$49,490
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$48,803

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,490 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x16b2…a881backed Under50c14,812$7,472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,340.542,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over47c11,021$5,178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,177.679,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa59f…d53cbacked Over51c7,941$4,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,0501346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01b4…372ebacked Over2c4,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8029810.4%31 W · 267 L+22.5wins+0.08per pick3cpaid+230.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa9d1…4660backed Over5c3,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15039018.2%71 W · 319 L+27.6wins+0.07per pick11cpaid+62.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Over46c1,820$834 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$834.113,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over45c1,606$725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$725.098,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e29…9e66backed Under57c1,319$752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$567.3350241.2%207 W · 295 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee20…5b37backed Over43c1,061$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456.3250347.9%241 W · 262 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Under63c572.52$362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.462,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Over49c548.4$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.422,90238.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L-51.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2dc0…fe28backed Over2c500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10462.2%1 W · 45 L+0.1wins0.00per pick2cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e80…f17abacked Over6c500$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328511.8%10 W · 75 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick10cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Over43c422.09$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.52,79650.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L+27.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Over50c421.29$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.652,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc30…c8a5backed Over46c301.44$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14025847.3%122 W · 136 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over51c277.06$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.33,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Over45c252$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.42,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under49c245.33$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.124,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea22…747abacked Over50c210$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10567921.4%145 W · 534 L+32.4wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+33.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x042a…7f4cbacked Under50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1003441.2%14 W · 20 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-23.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x83c8…26f0backed Over15c199.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309515.8%15 W · 80 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick11cpaid+45.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Under48c161.81$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.823,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Over46c160$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.81,02848.5%499 W · 529 L+27.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Under56c126.01$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.893,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe5bc…a233backed Under50c116.04$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.026953.6%37 W · 32 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Under41c100$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.523047.4%109 W · 121 L+19.2wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+19.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Under54c73$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.5688845.7%406 W · 482 L-12.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over46c72$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.7687647.5%416 W · 460 L+3.7wins0.00per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Under57c70.18$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.182,60250.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L-20.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfc1…818dbacked Over45c64$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.839449.2%194 W · 200 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31ce…88cdbacked Over48c59.99$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.824552.7%129 W · 116 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7602…2775backed Under54c43.5$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.0150648%243 W · 263 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3920…23e7backed Under55c36.48$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.4830452.6%160 W · 144 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-2.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf673…a9a3backed Under57c35.09$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.093762.2%23 W · 14 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick57cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over43c34.91$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1493849.7%466 W · 472 L+36.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Under66c29.29$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.941,09640.9%448 W · 648 L+34.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe88b…fa5abacked Over58c22.15$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8543246.1%199 W · 233 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1540…04e9backed Under51c21.56$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.485168.6%35 W · 16 L+8.1wins+0.16per pick53cpaid+31.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Under66c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.81,69544.7%758 W · 937 L-30.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0684…d593backed Under56c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.887950.6%445 W · 434 L-16.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4546…c148backed Under51c19.61$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.532437.5%9 W · 15 L-3.5wins-0.15per pick52cpaid-33.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9388…7750backed Over72c16.72$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.04425%1 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.44per pick69cpaid-52.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.