NBA · resolved market
Magic vs. Bulls: O/U 234.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad09494535a450acf7f198859884578712c2936e25974ff19e7ccd18fef69d4d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $80,850
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $80,514
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,850 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbf42…d698backed Under | 49c | 52,328$25,878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,877.78 | 170 | 31.8%54 W · 116 L | -24.9wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 50c | 22,160$11,085 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,074.88 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 51c | 8,487$4,313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,173.46 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 52c | 8,394$4,349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,044.78 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5e…00afbacked Over | 51c | 7,943$4,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,893.36 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 46c | 5,113$2,354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,353.76 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccec…1dfcbacked Over | 51c | 4,349$2,218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,131.01 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89bd…3f72backed Over | 48c | 2,498$1,199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,298.96 | 112 | 43.8%49 W · 63 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26eb…22d0backed Over | 48c | 2,493$1,197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,296.46 | 277 | 35%97 W · 180 L | -30.7wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x69e1…6851backed Under | 51c | 2,205$1,132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,132.45 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05b0…4362backed Over | 52c | 1,905$991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$914.45 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…2d1abacked Under | 55c | 1,500$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$825 | 489 | 57.5%281 W · 208 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 48c | 1,300$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24d8…e8a8backed Over | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +14.0wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 47c | 849.85$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.44 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 50c | 801.09$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.59 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b9…d1d9backed Under | 48c | 725$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 36c | 590$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.65 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91df…e5d7backed Over | 52c | 400$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 48c | 388$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.76 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9239…a358backed Over | 52c | 380$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.4 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ff…bd61backed Over | 52c | 345$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.6 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 51c | 300.8$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.42 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…dcd6backed Over | 47c | 228$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.84 | 97 | 55.7%54 W · 43 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Over | 55c | 200.27$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.27 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…d91fbacked Under | 53c | 196.99$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.4 | 623 | 47.5%296 W · 327 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd00e…fb86backed Under | 60c | 166.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Over | 40c | 165.91$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.55 | 679 | 21.4%145 W · 534 L | +32.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Over | 51c | 156.86$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.86 | 334 | 42.8%143 W · 191 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Over | 75c | 120.1$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.11 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 25c | 106.94$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Under | 49c | 105$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.15 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe28f…be21backed Under | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe47b…1b4bbacked Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 357 | 39.8%142 W · 215 L | -25.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 49c | 96.7$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.45 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf28…9144backed Under | 44c | 95$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.24per pick | 50cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbe05…b5a5backed Under | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 332 | 46.1%153 W · 179 L | -12.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Over | 51c | 80$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 1,028 | 48.5%499 W · 529 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 49c | 78$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.78 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffac…d469backed Over | 49c | 43.35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.11 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ad…5a42backed Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 84 | 52.4%44 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff7…3a9dbacked Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 51c | 40.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe44b…6e0abacked Over | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 234 | 45.7%107 W · 127 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Under | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 233 | 48.9%114 W · 119 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b99…c42bbacked Under | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf81…642ebacked Over | 46c | 36.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9331…0951backed Under | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over | 51c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 876 | 47.5%416 W · 460 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f12…9305backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.22per pick | 41cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x117d…6542backed Under | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 564 | 54.3%306 W · 258 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1aa…071abacked Over | 47c | 25.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0338…4f11backed Over | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 51c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Under | 51c | 23.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 288 | 42.7%123 W · 165 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Over | 51c | 23.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 506 | 48%243 W · 263 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d7…2eaebacked Over | 46c | 22.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Under | 53c | 21.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb95e…c6d6backed Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Magic vs. Bulls: O/U 234.5this page
- 1H Spread: Magic (-2.5)Bulls won
- Magic vs. BullsBulls won
- Magic vs. Bulls: O/U 232.5Over won
- Magic vs. Bulls: O/U 233.5Over won
- Magic vs. Bulls: O/U 235.5Under won
- Magic vs. Bulls: O/U 236.5Under won
- Magic vs. Bulls: O/U 237.5Under won
- Spread: Magic (-4.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Magic (-5.5)Bulls won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.