NBA · resolved market

Spread: Magic (-4.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc859f22e1e91fe26ce37ad12ad2595744100c0daaaeb83d0687648d39ccafc2

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Bullsof Magic, Bulls
Resolved: Jan 3, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $553,321
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $554,402

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $553,321 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x0d3b…c46bbacked Magic	53c	411,650$218,174 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$218,174.18	77	45.5%35 W · 42 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Bulls	47c	250,000$117,500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$132,500	871	44.7%389 W · 482 L	+14.9wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	+5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Bulls	47c	243,607$115,135 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$128,471.72	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Magic	53c	27,079$14,323 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14,323.07	1,024	50.8%520 W · 504 L	+18.6wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2872…3096backed Magic	52c	20,962$10,900 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10,900	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x02fc…e33cbacked Magic	52c	19,234$10,002 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10,001.88	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.09per pick	59cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Bulls	47c	11,180$5,245 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,934.69	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Magic	53c	10,786$5,736 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,735.52	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Magic	51c	8,396$4,282 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,281.5	1,908	54.5%1,040 W · 868 L	+53.7wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x28dc…a1f2backed Magic	52c	6,346$3,300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,300	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	-2.2wins	-0.14per pick	51cpaid	-26.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd5d9…65d0backed Magic	52c	5,769$3,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,000	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.10per pick	50cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Bulls	47c	5,764$2,721 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,042.43	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Bulls	48c	4,221$2,031 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,190.23	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0ae…41afbacked Magic	52c	3,846$2,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,000	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-2.0wins	-0.20per pick	50cpaid	-41.1%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Bulls	48c	3,000$1,440 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,559.98	795	49.7%395 W · 400 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Bulls	47c	2,000$940 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,060	433	48.5%210 W · 223 L	+11.0wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2c2…4de7backed Magic	52c	2,000$1,040 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,040	491	42.6%209 W · 282 L	+12.1wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	+9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Magic	53c	1,920$1,018 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,017.6	480	54.2%260 W · 220 L	+14.0wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Magic	51c	1,633$833 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$832.81	646	51.7%334 W · 312 L	-14.9wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d18…4972backed Magic	51c	1,619$825 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$825.45	163	39.3%64 W · 99 L	-10.2wins	-0.06per pick	46cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Bulls	48c	1,506$720 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$786.26	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Bulls	49c	1,300$634 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$666	456	47.1%215 W · 241 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed Magic	54c	1,111$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$599.94	435	43.4%189 W · 246 L	-16.0wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7da6…4ff3backed Bulls	48c	999.96$480 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$519.98	228	45.2%103 W · 125 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa99a…388ebacked Magic	52c	884.62$460 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$460	8	50%4 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeddf…a953backed Bulls	47c	851.06$400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$451.06	361	43.5%157 W · 204 L	-4.5wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Magic	52c	800$416 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$416	672	52.7%354 W · 318 L	+15.8wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3920…23e7backed Magic	52c	632.69$329 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$329	304	52.6%160 W · 144 L	-7.6wins	-0.03per pick	55cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xee20…5b37backed Bulls	58c	590$342 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$247.8	503	47.9%241 W · 262 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb871…9f15backed Bulls	49c	550$270 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$280.5	591	44.5%263 W · 328 L	-4.0wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Bulls	46c	539.6$249 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$290.49	288	42.7%123 W · 165 L	+6.6wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x889c…e375backed Bulls	48c	520.83$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$270.83	509	54.8%279 W · 230 L	+14.8wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb580…9b95backed Magic	52c	500$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260	184	40.8%75 W · 109 L	+2.7wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Bulls	49c	500$246 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$254	1,475	51.3%756 W · 719 L	+35.2wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeca1…fc2ebacked Magic	52c	488.29$254 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$253.91	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.2wins	-0.58per pick	58cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd092…342abacked Magic	52c	480.77$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	462	58.2%269 W · 193 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	58cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x43d7…dca3backed Bulls	49c	408.16$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$208.16	150	52.7%79 W · 71 L	+5.0wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f6a…04ebbacked Bulls	49c	408.16$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$208.16	354	47.7%169 W · 185 L	-10.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8059…c043backed Bulls	49c	400$196 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$204	261	50.2%131 W · 130 L	+4.3wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1af…c803backed Magic	52c	384.62$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	14	71.4%10 W · 4 L	+2.7wins	+0.19per pick	52cpaid	+35.6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa42a…d91fbacked Bulls	47c	297.97$140 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$157.92	623	47.5%296 W · 327 L	-17.3wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf57…7b2fbacked Magic	53c	294.34$156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$156	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.6wins	-0.07per pick	45cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c9b…a556backed Magic	51c	294.12$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	229	53.7%123 W · 106 L	+6.8wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Magic	52c	285$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.2	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x780c…7921backed Magic	55c	220.05$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	59	33.9%20 W · 39 L	-6.0wins	-0.10per pick	44cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x30cb…079cbacked Bulls	51c	216.08$110 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$106.08	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	-2.7wins	-0.21per pick	52cpaid	-42.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x85c2…9730backed Bulls	49c	204.08$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104.08	685	42.6%292 W · 393 L	-6.3wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3888…0755backed Bulls	58c	201.1$117 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$84.1	250	58.4%146 W · 104 L	+10.5wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf6de…95e8backed Magic	52c	200$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104	230	47%108 W · 122 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a3c…93d7backed Magic	51c	199.99$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.99	403	46.2%186 W · 217 L	+9.0wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee21…3721backed Bulls	49c	197.04$97 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100.49	34	44.1%15 W · 19 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04b4…8d0bbacked Bulls	48c	166.9$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$86.9	572	50%286 W · 286 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Magic	49c	164.69$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.7	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5bc…a233backed Bulls	49c	161.25$79 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$82.24	69	53.6%37 W · 32 L	+2.4wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a87…fb21backed Bulls	52c	158.98$82 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$77.03	624	50%312 W · 312 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e46…0742backed Magic	52c	134.62$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	239	48.5%116 W · 123 L	-4.2wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd207…c366backed Magic	52c	134.29$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.83	191	50.3%96 W · 95 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ec4…defabacked Magic	52c	130$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.6	824	40.4%333 W · 491 L	+6.1wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa966…208bbacked Magic	53c	130$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.9	173	49.1%85 W · 88 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x051b…09d4backed Magic	52c	127.23$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.16	456	51.1%233 W · 223 L	+2.3wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xa886…822bbacked Magic	63c	123.06$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.53	117	50.4%59 W · 58 L	-5.1wins	-0.04per pick	55cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa57…1e6bbacked Magic	52c	115.38$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	30	53.3%16 W · 14 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Magic	54c	114.63$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.9	1,573	53.4%840 W · 733 L	-12.8wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3a3…d89bbacked Magic	53c	113.21$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	93	54.8%51 W · 42 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	58cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Bulls	48c	105.84$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55.04	2,902	38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L	-51.9wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ae4…a127backed Bulls	49c	102.04$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.04	110	41.8%46 W · 64 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Magic	52c	100$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	955	48.5%463 W · 492 L	-3.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa9e0…719cbacked Bulls	49c	100$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51	12	66.7%8 W · 4 L	+3.1wins	+0.26per pick	41cpaid	+61.8%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4010…77d4backed Magic	52c	100$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	481	46.2%222 W · 259 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7802…d5b4backed Magic	52c	100$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	107	58.9%63 W · 44 L	+7.6wins	+0.07per pick	52cpaid	+14.8%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd4f9…f619backed Magic	53c	100$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53	34	61.8%21 W · 13 L	+1.6wins	+0.05per pick	57cpaid	+17.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed Bulls	48c	99.99$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52	658	55.6%366 W · 292 L	+27.0wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x15e3…009fbacked Magic	52c	99.95$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.97	373	57.4%214 W · 159 L	+7.5wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6dfb…8defbacked Magic	52c	96.15$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	31	29%9 W · 22 L	-7.6wins	-0.25per pick	54cpaid	-45.9%equal weight	35-0.14 edge/pick
0xbce1…5555backed Magic	52c	96.15$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	57	40.4%23 W · 34 L	+2.7wins	+0.05per pick	36cpaid	+26.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1540…04e9backed Bulls	48c	95.36$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.15	51	68.6%35 W · 16 L	+8.1wins	+0.16per pick	53cpaid	+31.2%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0xbe05…b5a5backed Magic	53c	94.34$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	332	46.1%153 W · 179 L	-12.1wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xedc6…314abacked Bulls	43c	85.99$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.81	107	44.9%48 W · 59 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Bulls	48c	84.7$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.27	888	45.7%406 W · 482 L	-12.2wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15ca…0a0dbacked Bulls	48c	83.33$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.33	126	48.4%61 W · 65 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Bulls	49c	81.63$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.63	2,602	50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L	-20.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Bulls	45c	80.69$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.38	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed Magic	52c	76.92$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	1,389	54.9%762 W · 627 L	+16.7wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0c7…5861backed Bulls	49c	61.22$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.22	516	51.2%264 W · 252 L	-6.4wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Bulls	49c	59.99$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.9	1,786	53.2%950 W · 836 L	+52.7wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4546…c148backed Bulls	49c	54.41$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.75	24	37.5%9 W · 15 L	-3.5wins	-0.15per pick	52cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6931…89cabacked Bulls	69c	50.55$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.67	102	48%49 W · 53 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0547…fb35backed Bulls	50c	50$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25	633	53.1%336 W · 297 L	-2.7wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked Bulls	49c	50$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.5	661	43.4%287 W · 374 L	-32.6wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb545…6e0abacked Bulls	40c	50$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30	175	27.4%48 W · 127 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd32…8580backed Bulls	49c	50$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.5	14	64.3%9 W · 5 L	+1.4wins	+0.10per pick	55cpaid	+18.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe70c…c938backed Magic	52c	48.08$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	745	47.2%352 W · 393 L	-13.2wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe56e…0bb4backed Bulls	46c	43.48$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.48	242	48.3%117 W · 125 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0b4…9dc2backed Bulls	49c	40.82$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.82	187	42.8%80 W · 107 L	+2.5wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe85d…95d8backed Bulls	49c	40.82$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.82	153	55.6%85 W · 68 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	-3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ec2…9ac8backed Bulls	49c	40.82$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.82	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-23.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97b8…0f5dbacked Magic	51c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.4	139	53.2%74 W · 65 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	57cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Magic	52c	39.52$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.55	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xedb5…ce8ebacked Magic	52c	38.46$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	217	56.7%123 W · 94 L	+6.2wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd07…cb4ebacked Magic	53c	37.74$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	201	43.3%87 W · 114 L	-12.4wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Magic (-4.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event