Other European Leagues · resolved market
Telstar 1963 vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29c624af8e861168b1e2661179a0c5d1dbce34cbbf93cea378f3146d6156563b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,765
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,804
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,765 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 18c | 5,708$1,034 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,674.27 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b7…dbdabacked Under | 68c | 1,459$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Over | 23c | 1,250$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$962.5 | 134 | 32.1%43 W · 91 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +30%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 26c | 1,218$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$907.57 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 53c | 679.11$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.15 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -6.5wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 80c | 444$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.2 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 20c | 400$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 670 | 50.6%339 W · 331 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x796a…b0a4backed Over | 19c | 295.1$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.85 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 49c | 212.85$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.86 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | +11.7wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xaa05…69e3backed Under | 79c | 170$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 72cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 41c | 160$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 357 | 40.6%145 W · 212 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over | 37c | 150.13$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.13 | 111 | 45%50 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Over | 20c | 125$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 102 | 36.3%37 W · 65 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec8…397bbacked Over | 18c | 111$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.76 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf6…773bbacked Over | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.24 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb0…8826backed Over | 30c | 78.51$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.71 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc49c…6dcabacked Under | 80c | 73$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.4 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 19c | 69.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.62 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd2…e8e8backed Over | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Under | 55c | 54.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 51c | 54$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 834 | 40.8%340 W · 494 L | -35.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2496…50a5backed Over | 69c | 41.86$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 35c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3759…6b3bbacked Under | 78c | 34.84$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 79c | 29.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.47 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9236…da58backed Over | 36c | 28.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.96 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22c9…9764backed Under | 57c | 17.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Telstar 1963 vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 4.5this page
- Spread: AFC Ajax (-1.5)Telstar 1963 won
- Telstar 1963 vs. AFC Ajax: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Telstar 1963 vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 1.5Over won
- Telstar 1963 vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 2.5Over won
- Telstar 1963 vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.