Other European Leagues · resolved market
Telstar 1963 vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa8bbc45ed04f98d0cab24130e6fb8016b1cba3b8745f3d999322187015700ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,812
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,808
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,812 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 68c | 11,084$7,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,553.61 | 5,677 | 42%2,382 W · 3,295 L | +74.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 31c | 9,647$2,967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,966.9 | 7,966 | 45.3%3,608 W · 4,358 L | +9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 41c | 5,000$2,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,049.99 | 376 | 41.5%156 W · 220 L | -17.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 42c | 2,381$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.83 | 490 | 46.9%230 W · 260 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 59c | 1,600$948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$652.24 | 670 | 50.6%339 W · 331 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 40c | 1,500$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.89 | 473 | 25.4%120 W · 353 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80cf…427dbacked Over | 61c | 1,250$763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.5 | 194 | 45.9%89 W · 105 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Over | 61c | 743$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.77 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Under | 41c | 640.05$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.28 | 134 | 32.1%43 W · 91 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +30%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…dba8backed Over | 59c | 563.28$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.28 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 22c | 539.58$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.83 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d7…ba47backed Over | 59c | 491.88$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.19 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 40c | 443.99$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.59 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Over | 60c | 416.67$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.67 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Under | 39c | 413.86$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.86 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -15.9wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 46c | 353.7$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.7 | 834 | 40.8%340 W · 494 L | -35.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…086ebacked Over | 59c | 327.12$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.12 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 40c | 299.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Under | 7c | 299.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…9e05backed Under | 41c | 241.17$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.88 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd056…f1bebacked Over | 60c | 208.33$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.33 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…ee2ebacked Over | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 31 | 80.6%25 W · 6 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked Under | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 36cpaid | -72%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc651…98efbacked Over | 74c | 198.51$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.61 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f1…807dbacked Over | 61c | 164.48$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.48 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c67…21eebacked Over | 59c | 159.46$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.38 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -9.3wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x78f7…2c5dbacked Over | 59c | 154.39$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.3 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +5.4wins | +0.25per pick | 53cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 60c | 150.93$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.81 | 252 | 63.5%160 W · 92 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 8c | 142.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 2,316 | 42.8%991 W · 1,325 L | -41.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…5526backed Over | 59c | 139$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.99 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 71c | 137.91$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | +11.7wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Over | 59c | 116.95$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.95 | 366 | 47.3%173 W · 193 L | -9.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb0…8826backed Over | 73c | 109.59$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.59 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x170c…7fe3backed Over | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 33c | 93.67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.72 | 1,098 | 50.5%554 W · 544 L | -36.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…91a4backed Over | 59c | 90$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3bec…6997backed Over | 59c | 87$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.67 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4970…21f6backed Over | 59c | 80$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 77c | 64$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 220 | 54.1%119 W · 101 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 64c | 47.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.19 | 517 | 56.1%290 W · 227 L | +23.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 41c | 43.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5931…08cbbacked Under | 41c | 43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5d…be79backed Under | 41c | 43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Over | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 102 | 36.3%37 W · 65 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Under | 45c | 42.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 111 | 45%50 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Under | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30ce…bc38backed Over | 59c | 39.83$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 53c | 37.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 357 | 40.6%145 W · 212 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25c3…eb62backed Under | 41c | 36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 60cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e57…41f0backed Under | 41c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb4…d481backed Over | 66c | 34.85$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -8.5wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…585abacked Under | 42c | 33.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed Over | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51cb…db17backed Over | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d10…e17cbacked Under | 41c | 31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30ee…5d12backed Under | 41c | 31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 480 | 42.9%206 W · 274 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Under | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf683…f2dfbacked Under | 41c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Over | 61c | 27.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Over | 59c | 26.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 278 | 56.1%156 W · 122 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Under | 42c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 105 | 24.8%26 W · 79 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09b8…13a3backed Over | 59c | 25.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ec…aeaabacked Over | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…0404backed Over | 61c | 20.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Telstar 1963 vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: AFC Ajax (-1.5)Telstar 1963 won
- Telstar 1963 vs. AFC Ajax: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Telstar 1963 vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 1.5Over won
- Telstar 1963 vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 3.5Over won
- Telstar 1963 vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.