Other European Leagues · resolved market
Telstar 1963 vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b59188f121b0d4752f01478859e0ceeb1b3965f03314b8ecec92d216e882b13
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,598
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,118
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,598 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 50c | 5,718$2,865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,864.99 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 53c | 2,650$1,399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,250.69 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…959bbacked Over | 37c | 812.22$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.7 | 141 | 37.6%53 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 62c | 444$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.28 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 205 | 72.2%148 W · 57 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Over | 38c | 394.74$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.74 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x882e…54cebacked Over | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd76…b935backed Over | 38c | 390.29$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.98 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 58c | 342.02$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.02 | 316 | 61.7%195 W · 121 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 37c | 289.62$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.62 | 202 | 41.6%84 W · 118 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 56c | 258.37$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.07 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | +11.7wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdf…56f5backed Over | 38c | 236.84$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.84 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf92f…bdb2backed Over | 37c | 216.22$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.22 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 51c | 205.27$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.18 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -6.5wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 42c | 147$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.65 | 2,309 | 42.8%988 W · 1,321 L | -41.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb0…8826backed Over | 59c | 133.22$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.22 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf9…1abfbacked Under | 64c | 132$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.1 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x27ed…57ebbacked Under | 64c | 130$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.2 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x454a…4039backed Under | 63c | 126$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.38 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2c…ac5ebacked Under | 63c | 108$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.04 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd66…48e4backed Over | 49c | 99.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Under | 44c | 86.61$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.17 | 111 | 45%50 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd235…6eebbacked Over | 51c | 82.35$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.35 | 88 | 31.8%28 W · 60 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3759…6b3bbacked Under | 52c | 81.53$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.29 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 357 | 40.6%145 W · 212 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Under | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0e…2b59backed Under | 63c | 67.67$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.63 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Over | 37c | 67.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.57 | 102 | 36.3%37 W · 65 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 56c | 63$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.79 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 60c | 57$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.14 | 1,098 | 50.5%554 W · 544 L | -36.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 62c | 52.63$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.63 | 237 | 46.8%111 W · 126 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf6…773bbacked Over | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 117 | 38.5%45 W · 72 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d7…ba47backed Over | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa27…dbdcbacked Over | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 67cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d5…aa48backed Under | 49c | 48.61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4651…8da8backed Over | 33c | 44.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +186.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd17…77fdbacked Over | 36c | 42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.7 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fec…8dc3backed Over | 36c | 38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Under | 40c | 37.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 278 | 56.1%156 W · 122 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…67b1backed Over | 37c | 36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.28per pick | 61cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa4…b6a4backed Over | 37c | 32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ab…3e5cbacked Under | 65c | 31.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 61cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc85f…15f8backed Over | 68c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -5.6wins | -0.18per pick | 57cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…8528backed Over | 57c | 29.19$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d10…e17cbacked Over | 36c | 29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa029…c912backed Over | 37c | 28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e2…c86fbacked Over | 57c | 27.91$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 51c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 598 | 55.5%332 W · 266 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…a568backed Over | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +31%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3a…47debacked Over | 57c | 18.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Telstar 1963 vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 3.5this page
- Spread: AFC Ajax (-1.5)Telstar 1963 won
- Telstar 1963 vs. AFC Ajax: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Telstar 1963 vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 1.5Over won
- Telstar 1963 vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 2.5Over won
- Telstar 1963 vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.