TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Lakers vs. Kings

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Kingsof Lakers, Kings
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,579,620
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,724,276

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,579,620 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,315 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x56e2…4b88backed Kings24c338,882$82,332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256,550.455253.8%28 W · 24 L+5.0wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+27.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Lakers76c118,488$90,051 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90,051.2559347%279 W · 314 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe734…8f6abacked Lakers75c65,006$49,066 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49,065.5519150.8%97 W · 94 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb889…a430backed Lakers75c64,898$48,673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48,673.289263%58 W · 34 L+9.8wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+21.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe6a3…2f0dbacked Lakers76c60,164$45,601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45,601.2919560%117 W · 78 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4be1…aa70backed Lakers30c57,702$17,204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,204.390%0 W · 9 L-3.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1d1a…0df6backed Kings25c56,000$14,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42,00020744.9%93 W · 114 L-8.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcd9b…414dbacked Kings24c55,121$13,229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41,891.8351844.4%230 W · 288 L+11.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c81…fce3backed Kings77c48,625$37,543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,081.641675%12 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+16.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5bc3…9ab5backed Kings71c38,614$27,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,273.76728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-41.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Lakers76c38,191$29,117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,117.252,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Kings24c37,500$9,075 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,424.9835235.8%126 W · 226 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Lakers76c34,618$26,370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,369.572,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Kings50c33,608$16,762 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,846.151,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe12a…67efbacked Kings24c33,000$7,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,079.8215841.1%65 W · 93 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf51…4a30backed Kings24c31,775$7,666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,10976746.4%356 W · 411 L-16.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5350…2fdabacked Kings24c30,357$7,286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,071.2712147.9%58 W · 63 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94d7…bef5backed Lakers31c29,394$9,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,20025925.9%67 W · 192 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0aa3…64e9backed Lakers75c29,152$21,864 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,864.356358.7%37 W · 26 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Lakers22c28,844$6,293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,292.8583039.4%327 W · 503 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9852…111abacked Lakers76c26,309$19,995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,994.878953.9%48 W · 41 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick55cpaid+3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27cb…169ebacked Lakers76c24,903$18,877 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,877.427424.5%67 W · 207 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Kings68c23,399$15,819 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,580.1337557.6%216 W · 159 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6adc…bebabacked Lakers44c22,822$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,000.253411.8%4 W · 30 L-8.5wins-0.25per pick37cpaid-62%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x0b9c…7e44backed Lakers75c22,487$16,866 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,865.535658.9%33 W · 23 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe258…2330backed Kings25c22,000$5,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,50023245.3%105 W · 127 L+0.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56fc…733ebacked Lakers48c21,153$10,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,239.789857.1%56 W · 42 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Kings68c20,561$13,909 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,652.865,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x681d…08aabacked Lakers76c16,786$12,832 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,832.335052%26 W · 24 L-4.3wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-14.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9f05…8937backed Kings23c16,500$3,795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,704.9247028.1%132 W · 338 L+27.2wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Kings26c16,464$4,358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,106.3148845.3%221 W · 267 L+18.9wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb45d…a406backed Lakers10c15,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,499.9927917.9%50 W · 229 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-44.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41b7…f6babacked Lakers17c14,000$2,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,36080146.4%372 W · 429 L-1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b5a…7070backed Kings74c13,630$10,112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,517.342250%11 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-20.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Lakers23c13,602$3,186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,185.7161939.6%245 W · 374 L-17.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-18.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9adf…55e8backed Kings79c12,605$9,928 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,677.9323747.7%113 W · 124 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d92…8676backed Kings45c12,490$5,621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,869.6917646%81 W · 95 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x832d…d420backed Kings48c12,381$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,3816540%26 W · 39 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-17.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Lakers76c12,139$9,231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,231.019,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac1…e989backed Kings76c12,109$9,197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,911.92757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.26per pick31cpaid+90.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb48f…d015backed Lakers76c11,990$9,131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,13112454.8%68 W · 56 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x89ec…8b88backed Lakers77c11,753$9,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,0006053.3%32 W · 28 L-3.7wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-15.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x61ea…c24abacked Lakers76c11,745$8,926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,926333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick64cpaid-51.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Lakers21c11,612$2,467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,466.653,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x069d…0308backed Kings77c11,276$8,718 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,557.58785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick68cpaid+23.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Lakers20c10,684$2,107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,107.0989444.4%397 W · 497 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Lakers75c10,222$7,673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,672.573,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Kings24c10,200$2,448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,7521,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedc8…cca9backed Kings24c10,050$2,412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,637.9620551.2%105 W · 100 L+8.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xba41…5f4fbacked Kings24c10,000$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,60031445.2%142 W · 172 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30ae…4318backed Kings80c10,000$8,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,00029858.7%175 W · 123 L-8.5wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Lakers0c9,870$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.738820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88d1…18dabacked Lakers51c9,833$4,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,999.0210158.4%59 W · 42 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+20.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd200…06b1backed Lakers78c9,800$7,644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,643.963348.5%16 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12fd…90c0backed Kings24c9,753$2,341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,411.9628439.8%113 W · 171 L+0.4wins0.00per pick40cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Kings55c9,746$5,373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,372.321,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd9a3…b1dfbacked Lakers75c9,655$7,241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,241.122166.7%14 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+37.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9161…622ebacked Lakers5c9,649$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.55024%12 W · 38 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Lakers77c9,426$7,251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,250.752,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Lakers77c9,000$6,930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,929.6759646.1%275 W · 321 L-16.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Lakers18c8,504$1,547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,547.261,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9981…dec4backed Lakers77c8,500$6,545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,5455369.8%37 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick69cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3af4…ed6bbacked Lakers76c8,214$6,243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,2432642.3%11 W · 15 L-3.7wins-0.14per pick57cpaid-26.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Lakers16c8,124$1,273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,273.2781529.4%240 W · 575 L-37.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbc31…4a51backed Lakers76c8,026$6,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,10013063.8%83 W · 47 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ae…7b92backed Lakers39c8,000$3,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,12018142%76 W · 105 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0364…f19bbacked Kings24c8,000$1,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,0801353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+52.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Lakers53c7,939$4,182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,182.52,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f5e…e7dbbacked Lakers76c7,892$5,966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,96628649.7%142 W · 144 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xedbc…34d5backed Lakers22c7,888$1,723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,722.883834.2%13 W · 25 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+40.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Lakers36c7,774$2,763 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,762.978,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7960…b94fbacked Lakers76c7,500$5,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,70019751.8%102 W · 95 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x72b4…7d67backed Lakers76c7,202$5,474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,473.5230845.8%141 W · 167 L-12.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x57cd…a0fbbacked Lakers76c7,200$5,472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,4725655.4%31 W · 25 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7690…74e1backed Lakers71c7,190$5,133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,1332060%12 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick68cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7d07…0351backed Lakers32c7,184$2,312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,312.154729.8%14 W · 33 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17bf…5a53backed Lakers17c7,121$1,212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,211.8615514.8%23 W · 132 L-28.1wins-0.18per pick33cpaid-65.1%equal weight33-0.16 edge/pick
0x3a8e…b505backed Lakers24c7,002$1,694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,693.8127144.3%120 W · 151 L-9.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe0a…4a63backed Lakers58c6,820$3,987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,986.664327.9%12 W · 31 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dae…4688backed Lakers75c6,613$4,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,9604961.2%30 W · 19 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fda…f190backed Lakers53c6,420$3,401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,400.553762.2%23 W · 14 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+19.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf267…e0e1backed Kings42c6,296$2,635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,660.48944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick34cpaid+19.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x490e…73adbacked Kings71c6,262$4,435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,827.379424.5%23 W · 71 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-39%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Kings24c6,170$1,481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,689.238434.9%134 W · 250 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+12.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7517…0353backed Kings58c5,962$3,456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,505.9227865.8%183 W · 95 L+25.4wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+10.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Lakers76c5,558$4,209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,208.592,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Lakers1c5,517$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5267911%75 W · 604 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e14…2266backed Kings75c5,392$4,044 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3481100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Kings62c5,221$3,237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,983.9634456.7%195 W · 149 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x062a…c2a3backed Kings24c5,000$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,80019048.4%92 W · 98 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+25.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7bb…a9f7backed Kings24c5,000$1,225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,774.993844.7%17 W · 21 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick48cpaid+15.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed Kings46c4,906$2,257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,649.2251753.8%278 W · 239 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2107…8f4cbacked Lakers45c4,841$2,161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1617439.2%29 W · 45 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Kings23c4,758$1,094 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,663.891,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2eed…85a9backed Lakers77c4,751$3,658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,65831455.1%173 W · 141 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Lakers76c4,705$3,569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,568.9936741.4%152 W · 215 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Lakers14c4,652$641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$640.782,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed Kings53c4,596$2,415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,181.1614533.1%48 W · 97 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-23%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7702…9791backed Kings68c4,584$3,132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,451.6524151.9%125 W · 116 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x85b9…d1abbacked Lakers11c4,545$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50050%0 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.