NBA · resolved market
Spread: Lakers (-10.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x901db425c0298f9f1d0c20fd92676e779a52b989243613586253ae51cedb3c10
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kingsof Lakers, Kings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $144,377
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $145,633
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $144,377 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbf42…d698backed Lakers | 47c | 107,200$50,384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50,384.21 | 170 | 31.8%54 W · 116 L | -24.9wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Kings | 53c | 96,118$50,943 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45,175.62 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Lakers | 45c | 7,822$3,527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,527.38 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Kings | 53c | 7,000$3,710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,290 | 662 | 50.8%336 W · 326 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Kings | 53c | 6,445$3,416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,029.27 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Kings | 53c | 4,126$2,206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,920.18 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Lakers | 45c | 2,814$1,266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,266.33 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Lakers | 47c | 2,500$1,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,175 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Lakers | 47c | 2,500$1,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,175 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e4…bf9dbacked Kings | 55c | 2,143$1,177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$965.69 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Kings | 54c | 1,931$1,043 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$888.25 | 207 | 44.9%93 W · 114 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Kings | 53c | 1,831$970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860.57 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3af4…ed6bbacked Lakers | 46c | 1,804$830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$830 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -3.7wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…1b96backed Kings | 55c | 1,604$882 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$721.78 | 240 | 51.3%123 W · 117 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Kings | 55c | 1,063$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.45 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Lakers | 45c | 772$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.4 | 346 | 54%187 W · 159 L | +13.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…9730backed Kings | 54c | 740.74$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.74 | 685 | 42.6%292 W · 393 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8b…b6f1backed Lakers | 47c | 640.84$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd5…26ccbacked Kings | 55c | 500$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 516 | 51%263 W · 253 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf40…2e52backed Lakers | 46c | 500$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b81…baa6backed Kings | 54c | 500$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x714c…f68dbacked Lakers | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07bc…393abacked Kings | 53c | 477.26$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.31 | 95 | 57.9%55 W · 40 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Lakers | 47c | 422.56$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.6 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Kings | 55c | 400$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 402 | 43.8%176 W · 226 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Lakers | 44c | 334.23$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.06 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Kings | 53c | 281.51$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.31 | 1,164 | 49.6%577 W · 587 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1dc…1068backed Lakers | 46c | 221.02$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.67 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Lakers | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 293 | 46.4%136 W · 157 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb248…3652backed Kings | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4b…14e2backed Kings | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…8848backed Kings | 54c | 179.99$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.8 | 722 | 50.6%365 W · 357 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Lakers | 45c | 177.83$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.43 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecd6…5284backed Lakers | 46c | 172.5$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.35 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0180…b8cdbacked Lakers | 48c | 166.67$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 265 | 45.3%120 W · 145 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Kings | 54c | 166.59$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.63 | 473 | 49%232 W · 241 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad8…9bc1backed Lakers | 34c | 130.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.11 | 89 | 36%32 W · 57 L | -7.2wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabf6…129dbacked Kings | 54c | 129.63$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.63 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Kings | 55c | 128.01$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.01 | 818 | 45.7%374 W · 444 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Lakers | 47c | 123.36$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.98 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Lakers | 40c | 119.76$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.18 | 228 | 36.4%83 W · 145 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9501…a052backed Kings | 55c | 101.82$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.82 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Kings | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 635 | 55.6%353 W · 282 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked Kings | 54c | 94$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.24 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe00f…c254backed Kings | 54c | 93.69$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.1 | 191 | 47.1%90 W · 101 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Kings | 55c | 90.69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.69 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbec4…637fbacked Kings | 48c | 89.76$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.68 | 531 | 49.3%262 W · 269 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Kings | 56c | 89.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.59 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Kings | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…48e0backed Kings | 54c | 82.23$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.83 | 166 | 58.4%97 W · 69 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9aea…5590backed Kings | 54c | 55.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.66 | 180 | 51.1%92 W · 88 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85ad…34b2backed Kings | 55c | 55.27$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.87 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x985d…e14fbacked Lakers | 46c | 53.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Lakers | 46c | 52.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 806 | 53.6%432 W · 374 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3704…0e84backed Kings | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 259 | 51.4%133 W · 126 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5007…119dbacked Kings | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07a4…be3abacked Lakers | 46c | 49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Kings | 54c | 47.3$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.76 | 244 | 54.1%132 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x230c…d36fbacked Kings | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Lakers | 47c | 42.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 165 | 46.1%76 W · 89 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x243c…9ae0backed Kings | 48c | 36.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.84 | 383 | 47%180 W · 203 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2061…1ed1backed Lakers | 46c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…0404backed Lakers | 46c | 28.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 204 | 56.4%115 W · 89 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9549…b936backed Kings | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 244 | 52.5%128 W · 116 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb64…1fd3backed Lakers | 47c | 27.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0af…5490backed Kings | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 288 | 56.9%164 W · 124 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08b6…7db6backed Kings | 54c | 22.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 120 | 62.5%75 W · 45 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…02ccbacked Kings | 55c | 21.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 99 | 57.6%57 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafd7…f634backed Kings | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20c8…6354backed Kings | 54c | 18.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Lakers (-10.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Lakers (-5.5)Kings won
- Lakers vs. KingsKings won
- Lakers vs. Kings: 1H MoneylineKings won
- Lakers vs. Kings: 1H O/U 117.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Kings: O/U 226.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Kings: O/U 227.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Kings: O/U 228.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Kings: O/U 229.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Kings: O/U 230.5Over won
- Spread: Lakers (-8.5)Kings won
- Spread: Lakers (-9.5)Kings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.