NBA · resolved market
Spread: Lakers (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x827b4a14b97b2ec0e64b0397c7cddf12f5c15dab4c95b7e7e57962a1362f80ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kingsof Lakers, Kings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,983
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,442
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,983 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56e2…4b88backed Kings | 46c | 19,755$9,177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,577.77 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Lakers | 54c | 14,444$7,759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,758.72 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf51…4a30backed Kings | 48c | 10,317$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,317.44 | 767 | 46.4%356 W · 411 L | -16.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Kings | 48c | 8,105$3,857 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,247.76 | 346 | 54%187 W · 159 L | +13.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Lakers | 52c | 6,623$3,455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,455.06 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Lakers | 52c | 5,338$2,762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,761.86 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2f…ec47backed Lakers | 53c | 4,569$2,422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,421.59 | 747 | 48.5%362 W · 385 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Lakers | 53c | 2,858$1,514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,513.86 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92c8…933fbacked Lakers | 53c | 2,023$1,072 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,072 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4440…f8fdbacked Lakers | 53c | 1,968$1,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,043 | 99 | 52.5%52 W · 47 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd56d…bd7dbacked Lakers | 55c | 1,818$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 86 | 47.7%41 W · 45 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Kings | 45c | 1,327$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$730 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e5…5a2cbacked Lakers | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 246 | 53.3%131 W · 115 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Kings | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 1,164 | 49.6%577 W · 587 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…e20fbacked Lakers | 54c | 999.99$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 499 | 38.9%194 W · 305 L | -23.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Lakers | 51c | 998$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.98 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…1b97backed Lakers | 54c | 621.04$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.36 | 220 | 36.8%81 W · 139 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27ae…bf54backed Lakers | 53c | 550$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293 | 160 | 53.1%85 W · 75 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae17…b10dbacked Lakers | 55c | 545.46$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Lakers | 53c | 509$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.25 | 228 | 36.4%83 W · 145 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7927…34d2backed Kings | 51c | 466.58$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.67 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd758…7af8backed Kings | 47c | 425.53$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.53 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…d91fbacked Lakers | 53c | 407.55$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 623 | 47.5%296 W · 327 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Lakers | 28c | 336.66$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.56 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c94…a43bbacked Lakers | 53c | 319.4$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.28 | 511 | 46.6%238 W · 273 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad15…ee7fbacked Lakers | 51c | 294.12$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 140 | 61.4%86 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed Kings | 46c | 280.76$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.76 | 192 | 42.7%82 W · 110 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14fa…73f0backed Lakers | 55c | 272.73$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 140 | 54.3%76 W · 64 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Lakers | 54c | 250$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b49…d0dfbacked Lakers | 54c | 248.89$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.4 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5993…470dbacked Lakers | 67c | 228.68$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Lakers | 52c | 204.03$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.17 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…93d7backed Lakers | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 403 | 46.2%186 W · 217 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Lakers | 54c | 199.86$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.92 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8b…b6f1backed Lakers | 55c | 182.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…d703backed Lakers | 55c | 181.91$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 108 | 40.7%44 W · 64 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78a2…d0a5backed Lakers | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 183 | 43.7%80 W · 103 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad8…9bc1backed Lakers | 11c | 169.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 89 | 36%32 W · 57 L | -7.2wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed Kings | 47c | 167.99$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.03 | 641 | 39%250 W · 391 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Kings | 46c | 149.97$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.99 | 377 | 50.4%190 W · 187 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b1…242fbacked Lakers | 56c | 142.37$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 335 | 54.6%183 W · 152 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Lakers | 54c | 126.87$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.51 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f17…2332backed Lakers | 55c | 109.09$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 121 | 55.4%67 W · 54 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…91a4backed Lakers | 54c | 106$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.24 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef25…c969backed Kings | 50c | 100.18$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.18 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Lakers | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Lakers | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Lakers | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 373 | 57.4%214 W · 159 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Kings | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 635 | 55.6%353 W · 282 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Lakers | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe97…89e1backed Lakers | 54c | 53.7$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 282 | 51.8%146 W · 136 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa42b…45d2backed Lakers | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 96 | 53.1%51 W · 45 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Lakers | 53c | 49.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.49 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa2…6b1abacked Lakers | 53c | 49.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.39per pick | 56cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a5…b820backed Lakers | 54c | 48.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd22f…d0eebacked Lakers | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 408 | 53.7%219 W · 189 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb520…60bcbacked Kings | 46c | 45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7cd…0888backed Lakers | 51c | 44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 177 | 44.1%78 W · 99 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Kings | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 661 | 43.4%287 W · 374 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3af…2c0abacked Lakers | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 86 | 62.8%54 W · 32 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd07…cb4ebacked Lakers | 28c | 36.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | -12.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Kings | 54c | 34.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x497a…650fbacked Kings | 48c | 28.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97b8…0f5dbacked Lakers | 54c | 28.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 139 | 53.2%74 W · 65 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Kings | 47c | 28.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5f…4884backed Lakers | 53c | 27.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2091…b4f8backed Lakers | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -9.7wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0969…b289backed Lakers | 52c | 26.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 222 | 47.3%105 W · 117 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf8…cd7cbacked Lakers | 63c | 23.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd289…98b5backed Kings | 46c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +6.0wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca0…a4fcbacked Lakers | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Lakers (-8.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Lakers (-5.5)Kings won
- Lakers vs. KingsKings won
- Lakers vs. Kings: 1H MoneylineKings won
- Lakers vs. Kings: 1H O/U 117.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Kings: O/U 226.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Kings: O/U 227.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Kings: O/U 228.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Kings: O/U 229.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Kings: O/U 230.5Over won
- Spread: Lakers (-10.5)Kings won
- Spread: Lakers (-9.5)Kings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.